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Dan's starting pitcher fantasy baseball busts, avoids, fades based on SIERA for 2025 drafts. These are SP overachievers who could see negative ERA regression.
With fantasy baseball draft season approaching, it's time to embark on my annual journey to find which starting pitchers to target and fade this year.
One of my favorite exercises is analyzing the SIERA of starters to identify pitchers with an ERA last season that was not truly reflective of their overall effectiveness. SIERA is one of the most accurate ERA estimators. It attempts to consider how specific skills (strikeouts, walks, ground balls) interact with each other to help a pitcher's run prevention. SIERA loves high strikeout rates and low walk rates and favors ground balls over line drives or fly balls when it comes to batted ball data.
Two years ago when I wrote this piece, we correctly identified the demise of Alek Manoah before he evaporated. There might not be anyone who is set to fall completely off the cliff as Manoah did last year, but there are certainly some pitchers who warrant further investigation to see if they're worth fading in case they suffer a similar fate.
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Largest ERA Overachievers From Last Year
Here are our biggest culprits! These are the pitchers who had an ERA a full run (or more) lower than their SIERA in 2024. I only looked at starting pitchers who threw at least 85 innings or more last season.
I have singled out Hunter Greene, Ronel Blanco, and Reynaldo Lopez for deeper dives with some shorter analysis on the others who are fantasy-relevant (sorry, Michael Lorenzen, not many people are drafting you anyway this season).
Overachiever Pitchers In The Top 100 ADP
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 98
Let's talk about Greene, who we can all probably agree is the most talented pitcher in this group. Last year, he posted career highs in IP, W, ERA, and WHIP in his third season in the majors. He's still just 25 years old and is set to anchor the Reds' rotation once again as their ace.
Greene was able to drop his ERA by a full two runs last year as he finished 2023 with an ERA of 4.82. That was largely due to him cutting his HR/9 in half from 1.53 to 0.72. Greene, despite being an extreme fly ball pitcher who made half his starts in the worst pitchers' park other than Coors Field, allowed just 12 home runs in 2024. Compare that to 19 HR allowed in 2023 and 24 long balls allowed in 2022.
That's probably not sustainable, considering his HR/FB% was just 7.2 percent, and that number is likely to creep back up closer to the 16-17 percent that he posted his first two seasons. His fastball, which averaged over 97 MPH again last season, was as effective as ever in 2024. However, he's still searching for a quality third pitch to add to his arsenal. He threw a splitter eight percent of the time last year, but it was not a reliable pitch for him at all, and he still leaned on his slider 37 percent of the time.
His BABIP was incredibly low at .239 - a major trend among players that made our list and the fifth-lowest of any pitcher who qualified with 85 IP.
The good news is that his xERA (3.06) and FIP (3.47) both suggest that he only moderately overachieved. But his xFIP of 4.30 (which hates fly balls) and SIERA of 3.8 (which prefers ground balls) are a good reminder that he's always going to be risky for ERA with his fly ball tendencies in Great American Ball Park.
Final Verdict: Even with some ERA regression, Greene still brings a high ceiling with his strikeout abilities. An improved offense behind him could help boost his win totals, too. His ADP is warranted, given his high floor.
Overachiever Pitchers From 100 to 250 ADP
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
ADP: 153
Okay, so who predicted Lopez would have an ERA under two in his first season as a starter since 2019? He was truly a godsend for the Braves, who lost Spencer Strider for the season and dealt with injuries to Max Fried and others.
Reynaldo Lopez posted the sixth-highest LOB% of the last ten seasons in 2024 pic.twitter.com/1cMEGBW8Y4
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) January 25, 2025
There are two big red flags here for Lopez, however, as his strand rate (LOB%) was unsustainably high at 87 percent, and his HR/FB% of 7.6 percent was suspiciously low. He allowed only 10 home runs last season, which was a pretty big change from the HR-prone starter he was in Chicago when he allowed 25 HR in 2018 and 35 HR in 2019.
So, is Lopez now an All-Star caliber starter after having a career ERA above 4.00 entering last season? Or is he a ticking time bomb waiting to go off when regression hits? I don't think either of those extreme statements is true, and it's likely somewhere in the middle. He's figured out how to best use his pitches and how to be an effective starter, but he profiles much more like a middle-of-the-rotation arm than an ace.
Final Verdict: Lopez should be good to go for another solid season, but is much more likely to post an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.00 range than he is to repeat last year's success. He did have a solid 27 percent strikeout rate that seems sustainable and is on a good staff, so he could still have a nice year. In the same ADP range, I'd rather have someone like Jared Jones, Jack Flaherty, or Kevin Gausman.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
ADP: 216
Blanco's third year in the big leagues was a huge success as he finished 13-6 with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.09. Blanco alternated between the rotation and the bullpen in 2023 before making 29 starts last year for Houston.
There are some really promising numbers from last season as he posted his best K% at 24.6 percent with a strong 12.9 percent SwStr% to back it. He lowered his BB% to 10.1 percent which is still too high for my liking but didn't burn him as he was very good at keeping hitters off base via the traditional route (getting a hit) with an incredible .190 AVG allowed.
Ronel Blanco 2024 Stats
ERA: 2.80
xERA: 4.00
FIP: 4.15
xFIP: 4.09
SIERA: 4.17 pic.twitter.com/qPG3jpp1po
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) February 21, 2025
As the tweet above notes, all of the major ERA estimators were not kind to Blanco last year. The strand rate wasn't quite as absurdly high as Lopez's, but was still much higher than the league average, so there's regression coming there. But the bigger red flag is the BABIP, which was crazy low at .221 and in no way sustainable.
Remember, Blanco is 31 years old and toiled in the minors for six years before finally making it to the big leagues. He's probably the fourth-best pitcher in his own team's rotation (I think Spencer Arrighetti is better).
Final Verdict: Blanco's ADP is very inflated, in my opinion. Pitchers behind him whom I would draft over him include Bowden Francis, Nick Pivetta, Clarke Schmidt, MacKenzie Gore, Nick Lodolo, and Brandon Woodruff. Don't reach for Blanco!
The Rest of the Bunch: 250+ ADP
Jameson Taillon (ADP: 347)
David Peterson (ADP: 354)
Luis L. Ortiz (ADP: 378)
Andrew Abbott (ADP: 384)
I'll keep this pretty short and sweet. I have no interest in drafting Jameson Taillon or Andrew Abbott. I think Abbott could be one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball, and he wasn't even all that good last season.
David Peterson is an interesting pitcher with some strikeout upside. The only big red flag was the HR/FB%, and he's a sinker-heavy guy who just might be less HR-prone. He's at least interesting, and I'm okay with his ADP here.
Luis L. Ortiz was pretty underwhelming last year with only a 19 percent K% and benefitted from a super low BABIP of .243. He also got crushed by lefties and Cleveland will likely have to retool his pitch mix to try to alleviate those sharp splits. The Guardians have a good track record with pitchers, but I don't see much upside with Ortiz, even if he can stick in their rotation.
Other ERA Overachievers (0.75 to 0.99)
Other Notable Regression Candidates
Corbin Burnes (ADP: 34)
Michael King (ADP: 59)
Bryce Miller (ADP: 85)
Corbin Burnes has some of the best stuff (literally Stuff+) in the game and the move to Arizona could be a boon to his value. I'm not concerned about him at all.
Michael King is another stud who proved he has what it takes to make it a full season with solid numbers, even if we see his ERA in the mid to high threes, the strikeouts should be there and his ADP feels warranted based on the fact that he could still improve yet.
Normally the low BABIP and HR/FB% might concern me with Miller, but he's a stud with great stuff and still developing his arsenal. He's being drafted a bit early for my taste, but the upside is there so I get it.
Bryan Woo (ADP: 138)
Depending on who you talk to this Spring, Woo is either being overdrafted or undervalued. The knock on him is his lack of experience and innings at the big league level in addition to that crazy low .240 BABIP. But he has tremendous stuff and made some adjustments to his arsenal last season that helped him keep hitters at bay - especially lefties. I like him a lot, and I think he's appropriately priced at this ADP, considering his potential.
Seth Lugo (ADP: 158)
Lugo is the one guy who stands out here. He's not a big strikeout guy, and all his numbers suggest that he's much closer to a 4.00 ERA pitcher than a 3.00 ERA guy. His value comes in his durability, as he went over 200 innings last year and positioned himself for plenty of wins. I'd be targeting some other pitchers with more upside in this range, he's going a few rounds too early in my opinion.
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