Seahawks vs. Cowboys TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Tony Pollard, Jake Ferguson, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, more

November 28, 2023

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the Seahawks and Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in Week 13 (2023). Detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

Thursday Night Football for Week 13 will be a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dallas Cowboys are winners of five of their last six games, and those five wins have come with an average margin of victory of 23.2 points. The Seattle Seahawks, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four, including an 18-point beatdown at the hands of the 49ers. The Cowboys are gaining ground on the top teams in the NFC while Seattle is desperately clinging to a playoff spot.

Thursday night will serve as the first step in a key test for Dallas as they have lost to both teams they played so far who are playoff teams in 2023. For Seattle, they also still have games remaining against San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh, and they will need to at least split those four games to get into the postseason.

I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this 13th Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys - 8:15 pm ET

Be sure to also check out our Seahawks vs. Cowboys NFL Actives/Inactives Report for Thursday Night Football. Notable injuries:

• Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) - Oblique - DOUBTFUL
• Will Dissly (TE, SEA) - Hip - QUESTIONABLE
• D'Wayne Eskridge (WR, SEA) - Ribs - QUESTIONABLE
• Peyton Hendershot (TE, DAL) - Ankle - QUESTIONABLE

Seahawks vs. Cowboys Matchup Breakdown

Seattle is almost perfectly average in every aspect of their defense. They are 20th in yards per rush attempt allowed, 21st in rushing yards per game allowed, 10th in yards per completion allowed, 22nd in passing yards allowed per game, and 12th in yards per play. Where they struggle mightily, however, is in the red zone. When opponents get the to red zone against Seattle, a touchdown is likely to happen. Seattle ranks 29th in the league with a 67% touchdown rate allowed in the red area, and that does not bode well for them on Thursday night.

Dallas is first in the league at 4.2 red zone trips per game, and that number pops up to 4.8 per game at home. They are third in the NFL in passing yards per completion over the last three weeks and their offense is humming the best it has all season. Considering the struggles Geno Smith and the Seattle offense are having lately, I don't see how they remain competitive in this game unless they force fluky turnovers or can really step up on third downs.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Dak Prescott is the QB1 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks over the last four weeks, so there's not really any more analysis needed beyond that. He is on the greatest run of his career and has thrown 17 touchdowns in his five games since returning from the bye week. Seattle has allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns per game in their last three.

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

Care to take a guess which wide receiver has the most half-PPR points in the league over the last four weeks? The same guy catching passes from the hottest quarterback in the league, that's who. Dallas clearly made a concerted effort to emphasize the passing game, and Lamb specifically, after the bye week, and it has resulted in massive fantasy production for him. Sam Hoppen found a great nugget about just how impactful the change has been for Lamb over the last five weeks.

Dallas' PROE has jumped from -2.1% pre-bye to 8.9% post-bye, which has resulted in a 5 pass att/gm spike. Ceedee Lamb is the only pass-catcher whose target % hasn't dropped post-bye and he's averaging, you guessed it, about 5 tgts/gm more.

The extra volume is only going to Lamb.

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 27, 2023

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)

After going eight games without a touchdown, Tony Pollard has now scored in back-t0-back games. He continues to touch the ball 15 or more times per game and his rushing yards per attempt have shot up to 5.6 per carry in the last two weeks. It took a while, but the efficiency is back for Pollard just in time for a matchup with Seattle, who has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league this year (12).

Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)

You may be sensing a pattern here, but Jake Ferguson is sixth among all tight ends in fantasy points over the last four weeks. Even with a poor game on Thanksgiving Day, he is averaging just under 10 half-PPR points in the last month. Seattle has only allowed one touchdown to tight ends this season, but they are bottom-12 in yards allowed to that position, so those scores have to regress at some point.

D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)

Only eight wide receivers have more targets than DK Metcalf over the last three weeks and he is emerging as the first and primary weapon for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. His 28% target share in that span is higher than even CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown. Dallas is allowing 9.4 yards per completion this season, so there is some vulnerability on the deep ball here for Seattle. Metcalf should lead this team in fantasy points on Thursday night.

DK Metcalf has had 9 or more targets in five of his last six games (nice).

He finished WR35 or worse in four of these six games.

This includes last week’s WR69 finish (not nice).

— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) November 30, 2023

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Brandin Cooks (WR, DAL)

Brandin Cooks has been very Gabriel Davis-like over the last five weeks, with three games in the top 24 wide receivers and two outside the top 45. Still, he is averaging over five targets per game over the last four weeks, and the increased passing rate for the Cowboys (60% over the last three games) has been the tide that lifts all receiving boats in this offense. He has bust potential, but Cooks is a safe bet for fantasy points if Seattle can keep this game reasonably close.

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)

Tyler Lockett still has a 22.5% target share on the season, but that number has dropped to 19% over the last three weeks. Over the course of the season, Lockett has fallen well behind DK Metcalf in receiving yards and air yards despite playing more games than his wide receiver counterpart. He does still convert receiving touchdowns at a high rate (four this season), and Lockett has the most receptions in the red zone of all Seattle wide receivers this year (seven).

Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA)

Kenneth Walker III is not expected to play in this game, which means it will be the Zach Charbonnet show again this week. Unfortunately, this was also the case last week and Charbonnet busted with just 58 total yards on 18 touches with no touchdowns. In fact, Charbonnet has not found the end zone all season and the Cowboys allow the seventh-fewest rushing touchdowns on the season. If you play Charbonnet, you are hoping for a repeat of his 18 touches with slightly more efficiency and maybe some garbage-time yards.

Say what you want about the offense, but Charbonnet’s role without Walker is truly elite. 87% of snaps, 85% of the opportunities, and ran a route on 72% of pass attempts.

Almost no running backs see that level of workload. https://t.co/FYt46997CI

— Jesse Moeller (@JMoeller05) November 24, 2023

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) 

If you're going to beat Dallas through the air, it is going to have to be from the slot position. To that end, JSN could be a sneaky WR3 option this week, especially if Seattle is in catch-up mode in the second half. In their last game, the Cowboys gave up nine catches and 100 yards to Curtis Samuel out of the slot, so JSN may be able to find space to operate underneath.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba THAT was RIDICULOUS 😱

🎥: @NFL pic.twitter.com/gf4a0Rap18

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 24, 2023

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Geno Smith (QB, SEA)

Geno Smith is starting to look like one of the worst free agent signings of last offseason. After starting the year with a QB25 finish in Week 1, he now has just one finish inside the top 15 at the position since Week 3. The one game he finished as QB5 was against the horrific Washington pass defense, and Dallas is certainly not going to give up that kind of production at home. Smith is even a fringe Superflex option this week as I have him ranked outside the top 16 quarterbacks.

On the season, Dallas allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, including the second-fewest passing yards in the league.

Will Dissly and Noah Fant (TE, SEA)

Out of 32 NFL teams, Seattle ranks 28th in tight end targets on the season. Noah Fant leads them with 24 over 12 weeks. Dallas has allowed six touchdowns to the position this year, but there is not enough volume for any one single tight end to justify them in your fantasy lineups.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: DAL -9, Total: 47.5

All season, the Cowboys have been simply steamrolling bad teams. Right now, Seattle is a bad team. Their offense is a mess, Geno Smith looks like a bad signing, and their red zone defense is atrocious. Add in an unusually-scheduled week in a hostile environment, and this has all the makings of another Dallas blowout. The last two times playoff teams played Seattle (San Francisco and Baltimore), the Seahawks lost by a combined 52 points and those two opponents averaged 34 points per game.

Dallas can easily hit 34 points in this matchup as well, which means Seattle just needs two scores to hit the over in this game.

Picks: DAL - 9, OVER

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