Quarterback Draft Rankings and Analysis

August 27, 2021

Jordan Eisen analyzes RotoBaller's 2021 quarterback rankings for fantasy football leagues ahead of draft season to determine which QBs are worthy of their preseason ADP.

Starting several years ago, the late-round QB strategy quickly caught on, becoming a staple of most fantasy managers’ drafts. In 2021, though late-round QB is still viable, fantasy managers may want to start looking in a different direction.

With a plethora of young, mobile quarterbacks joining the reliable veterans, quarterback projects to be exceptionally top-heavy in the upcoming season. There will always be late-round values, but for the first time in a long time, it’s the right call to splurge a little on a quarterback in 2021.

Our preseason draft rankings are constantly updated and available to view here.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

Tier 1

There is no argument against Patrick Mahomes being the QB1. He has incredible week-to-week upside, an extremely reliable floor, a tremendous sample size of elite play, good legs, and the list goes on. Not to mention, the Chiefs have some of the best weapons in the league. The former MVP has everything that a fantasy manager could ask for, thus making him the unquestionable QB1 for 2021, which will probably remain static for several years to come.

Josh Allen is the next best thing to Mahomes: he basically has everything that Mahomes has going for him, except to a lesser extent and he’s a lot less proven. Although Allen was the QB2 last season, it was only his first year as a superstar and even his first resemblance to a reliable fantasy quarterback. Furthermore, Allen had a few inconsistent weeks in his breakout campaign, passing for under 200 yards three times in 2020. This is nitpicking, as he is still my QB2, but whereas Mahomes has everything a fantasy manager could ask for, a few concerns still preside for Allen.

Kyler Murray is second to only Lamar Jackson in terms of rushing ability among quarterbacks, but he’s a better passer, making him a slightly more intriguing fantasy option. The third-year player holds tremendous upside to finish as high as QB1 (like he did last season), but questions still linger regarding his accuracy. Although Murray is almost an ideal fantasy quarterback due to his rushing ability, I would prioritize the former Sooner as my QB4 in favor of a much more accurate signal-caller.

Tier 2

Before his ankle injury, Dak Prescott was off to a historic start in 2020, thanks in large part to his also historical defense (historically bad that is). In Weeks 2-4, the 28-year-old enjoyed three consecutive games with over 450 passing yards in some of the highest-scoring shootouts of the entire season. If the defense were guaranteed to be as bad as it was at the beginning of 2020, Prescott would have a case to be the QB4, but the defense pulled itself together as the season progressed, allowing 25 or fewer points in six of the last 10 Dallas games. Relying on shootouts is never a good idea in fantasy drafts, so Prescott should be ranked much lower.

Coming off an MVP season, Aaron Rodgers reassured fantasy managers that he is not washed whatsoever. Prior to 2020, the superstar was always deservingly ranked as a top-three quarterback, so now why is he all the way down at seven? Though young talent has overtaken him at QB1 and 2, Rodgers deserves to be QB3. He doesn’t have Murray’s legs nor Prescott’s weapons, but the veteran remains one of the best deep-ball throwers in the league and one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy.

Herbert was absolutely brilliant in his breakout rookie season. He may not have the experience or weapons that Mahomes and Allen have, but when watching the film, it’s clear that Herbert is the only other quarterback that belongs in the same group of them concerning arm talent and mobility. I’m not vouching for the sophomore to be a top-three quarterback like Mahomes and Allen, I'm rather advocating for taking a comparable asset several rounds later once fantasy managers primarily fill their running back and wide receiver roster spots.

Tier 3

Now out of Detroit, Matthew Stafford will finally be able to showcase his ability consistently. There were certainly occasional flashes of the ex-Lion's skill in Motown, but it was never often enough to make Stafford a top quarterback in either fantasy or real life. Now in one of the most quarterback-friendly offenses with great receiving weapons, the 33-year-old will finally have a chance to shine on the field and on fantasy teams.

In 2020, Tom Brady finished as QB8, but towards the end of the season and in the playoffs, the Super Bowl MVP looked to be a top fantasy option. Now in sync with his new team, the Buccaneers' passing game projects to be nearly unstoppable. While there are more exciting alternatives, Brady is a foolproof option.

Tier 4

Once he took over for Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts immediately displayed both his fantasy appeal and potential demise with an average of 282 yards in the air and 79 yards on the ground but only a 55 percent completion percentage per game in Weeks 14-16. Hurts isn’t quite in the same echelon as Murray and Jackson, but it’s difficult to name a better rusher.

However, of the noteworthy fantasy quarterbacks, Hurts is among the worst passers as well. The second-year passer holds great upside on the off-chance that he’s able to improve his arm. As long as he’s starting though, Hurts’ legs will keep him in the realm of a fringe starter or weekly flier regardless of how much he can improve as a passer.

Tier 5

If fantasy managers fail to pick an early or mid-round quarterback, tier five is their last chance to snatch someone that could be their full-year starter in Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, or Baker Mayfield.

At this point, it’s no secret what Ryan is: he’ll produce stats most weeks thanks to his receiving options, but he’s not elite, so he’ll also produce some duds too. Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts are certainly a downgrade from what he’s had in the past, but Ryan should still be able to produce similar to what fantasy managers are used to seeing. It’s not ideal, but in leagues where managers prioritize filling their bench before drafting a quarterback, Ryan is a decent filler.

Cousins is comparable to Ryan in that he has two phenomenal receiving options, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, that will regularly carry him to a viable stat line. The difference between the two veterans, however, is Dalvin Cook. A strong run game has proven to be a cornerstone of the Vikings' offense and Cousins has seen both the benefits and disadvantages of being a quarterback in such a system. Cook will mostly help with opening up the passing game and will produce receiving numbers himself, but occasionally he’ll simply take over a game, leaving little production for Cousins. The Michigan State product won’t be as consistent as Ryan but holds a higher week-to-week upside.

Tier 6

It’s a given that Sam Darnold wasn’t worthy of the No. 2 overall pick in 2018, but he’s a much more interesting fantasy option than he was in the Jets’ Gotham Green jerseys. For the most part, I negate narratives in my analysis, but if anyone has ever needed a change in scenery, it’s the former Jet. The Panthers project to be a solid offense consisting of the best running back in the game, an effective offensive line, and great receiving options. Though a breakout is not imminent, for the first time in his career, Darnold could be a fantasy option.

Trey Lance is my favorite value in dynasty leagues; the keyword there is dynasty. Lance may not start Week 1, and that may be for good reason. The North Dakota State product looked extremely polished in his most recent college season but has appeared mistake-prone and raw in the preseason. Still, once Lance gets the starting gig in 2021, everything is set up perfectly for him: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are all yards-after-catch fiends that can take a three-yard pass to the house on any given play but can also run routes further down the field.

Additionally, Kyle Shanahan’s offense has made the likes of C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens look decent for extended periods of time; just imagine what a Mahomes/Allen/Herbert archetype might look like under center. He may not be great immediately, but the offense is friendly enough and there's enough raw talent that the 21-year-old deserves a stash in most leagues.

Tier 7

If it weren’t for the foot injury, Carson Wentz would be grouped with tier five (Ryan, Cousins, and Mayfield), yet that’s not the case. It's no secret that last season was an absolute disaster for Wentz, but the former Eagle must still have something left that made him an MVP candidate once upon a time. There’s a slim chance it’s long gone, but the more logical bet is that last year was a terrible combination of everything going wrong. The Colts aren’t perfect either, but their situation is a lot more welcoming than the 2020 Eagles’ was to Wentz. Don’t expect him to return to MVP form, but the signal-caller will be a waiver wire option in his new home.

Like Wentz, the pick right before him in the 2016 NFL Draft, Jared Goff, was also traded in the offseason; however, unlike Wentz, the change in scenery for Goff will not be as favorable. The former No. 1 overall pick was traded from one of the best systems for a quarterback to one of the worst. This specifically hurts Goff since the 26-year-old is more dependent on the situation and a clear pocket than any other quarterback. Fans saw in Goff’s Super Bowl campaign that he can maintain a fantastic offense if everything’s running to perfection, but they also saw in the Jeff Fisher era and in select weeks in the past couple of seasons that, if things aren’t going right, Goff can’t create plays on his own, rendering him useless. Now on a rebuilding Lions team, things don’t project to go right too often. Still, Goff will be a viable game manager and produce fairly consistently, albeit with some duds, for fantasy managers to take a flier in the right matchups.

Tier 8

On August 25th, Teddy Bridgewater was named the Broncos' starting quarterback. This isn't a great achievement as he was competing with Drew Lock, but the Broncos' offense has lots of interesting pieces that the former Viking and Panther can utilize. If everything clicks, there's a chance that Bridgewater could collect fantasy points as a product of his offense, but the more likely outcome is that he sits on the waiver wire until the Broncos take on the Raiders on Monday Night Football, his roster percentage skyrockets, and the Broncos score 10 points. Fantasy managers should keep Bridgewater on their watchlists; just remember, it's still Teddy Bridgewater.

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