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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of quarterbacks to assess their situations for fantasy football. Should you buy into the ADP jump for Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Deshaun Watson?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - ADP Risers
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Although Cousins has the largest ADP rise among the three quarterbacks included in this recap, the truth is that not even this one is a really huge one. We're talking about (barely) a full round, but as you can see in the pic above, the trend is rather steady with just a tiny increase in ADP of (very) late May and already into June.
Nothing other than the release of Dalvin Cook has affected the Vikings' offense of late. Cousins himself has yet to ink an extension, assuming both he and Minny are interested in exploring that pathway. Cousins said in May that he "hopes to remain with the team" after his deal expires at the end of the season.
Cousins has lost Cook as well as TE Irv Smith Jr. and veteran wideout Adam Thielen. On the other hand, he will be tossing the ball to the best fantasy receiver in Justin Jefferson as well as rookie Jordan Addison and 2022 mid-season addition – tight end T.J. Hockenson. That's definitely not a bad receiving corps overall.
The bump up in ADP, or better said the ADP in isolation, makes sense and is worth paying for in order to draft Cousins with a top-100 pick. The veteran quarterback might not be the most inspiring passer out there, but he's topped 290 FP in three consecutive seasons on his way to finishing in the QB11-QB8 clip in all of those campaigns.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Do I need to explain anything about Rodgers' situation entering the 2023 season? Rodgers has not finished a season outside of the top-15 QB realm since the 2017 campaign. He's coming off his worst year in forever, but even then he put up QB13 FP and 15.0 FPPG in a mediocre Green Bay team last year.
Rodgers will join a Jets squad featuring both reigning Rookies of the Year, most interestingly WR Garrett Wilson, along with former and long-time teammates and wideouts Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, as well as other interesting pieces in WR Mecole Hardman, RB Breece Hall (once he's back and healthy), and a plethora of solid tight ends.
It's all been great news coming out of the Jets OTAs even though Rodgers suffered a calf strain at the end of May only to return quickly after that. Truth be told, there isn't a lot to report on Rodgers or the Jets front. Gang Green keeps missing on landing big-name free-agent targets or not showing strong interest in any of them (Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook,...) but I don't think the team needs to load their offense anymore to put Rodgers in a great position to succeed, at least in fantasy leagues.
Rodgers should "bounce back" from his 2022 season and as long as he stays healthy (big if), he should put up top-12 QB numbers without much trouble. Rodgers' current ADP is his lowest since 2008 when he was getting drafted around the 114th-OVR pick and about to become a full-time starter in the Packers offense for the first time in his career.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
It has all been good news around the Browns when it comes to all things impacting QB Deshaun Watson. After getting Elijah Moore from the New York Jets back in March, it was reported in late May that he has slowly but surely turned into one of Watson's favorite and most-targeted partners, at least through the OTAs portion of the offseason.
It has always looked like Moore has the talent, but he has yet to explode for good. One player that surely has the talent and has proven his worth in the NFL already is teammate Amari Cooper. The veteran has also brought fantastic news to Watson as he returned to the field at the end of May following abdomen issues and by the second week of June was practicing without any restriction.
Adding the possibility of signing DeAndre Hopkins to this offense has fantasy GMs hyped to the brim, even though the ADP rise doesn't quite or fully reflect that with a half-round bump up (but the trend going upwards) of late.
Watson played for the first time in more than a year last season and averaged 14.3 FPPG in six games at the helm of the Browns in his first year in Cleveland. It might be just a matter of time until he gets into a rhythm, and hey, he's still going to play his age-28 campaign in 2023 so there should be more than enough fuel in his tank. This man was putting up a top-5 QB season yearly not long ago.
The ADP is still super low considering the upside and the track record, and as long as it doesn't break the 50th-OVR mark I'd really say go for Watson. He will most probably deliver up to expectations.
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