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Players Sending Out Warning Signals Heading Into Week 17

Congratulations are in order for fantasy owners who have already claimed their championship trophy coming out of Week 16. 2016 continues to be as much of a kerfuffle of a season as any other, so coming away with any sort of winnings is certainly commendable. All that said, just because most leagues have already wrapped doesn't mean there isn't still plenty worth discussing ahead of the final week of the regular NFL season.

Whether it's a two-week final or a longer playoff schedule, tons of owners will still be fighting for a title in Week 17. That's why we'll still be viewing some players who warrant appearing on Warning Signals. Admittedly, this week was a bit tougher than usual to analyze since player usage is an even bigger question mark than usual. For most NFL teams, their playoff status (or elimination) is already set in stone while others are still fighting for their lives. Nevertheless, I've picked out four names who will presumably see a full workload come Sunday.

Good luck in Week 17, folks.

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Heed the Warning Signs

Terrelle Pryor - (WR, CLE)

Fresh off the heels of their first win of the season, the Cleveland Browns head to Pittsburgh in a game that is technically meaningless for both teams. The thing is, it isn't really meaningless for Terrelle Pryor who is set to be a free agent at the end of the year. He'll be as close to a full go as any other player in Week 17 as he'll be looking to cap off his contract year with a strong showing.

That at least takes care of whether or not he'll be on the field. What's a little less known is how effective he'll be. In games where Robert Griffin III has been under center, Terrelle Pryor has just one game of more than 36 yards with zero touchdowns to boot. His highest yardage total with RGIII came all the way back in Week 1 where he had three receptions for 68 yards. Safe to say, Pryor has predominantly struggled whenever faced with shaky quarterback play.

Luckily for Pryor, Cody Kessler might end up seeing the field on Sunday since RGIII is dealing with concussion issues. Even if that ends up being the case, I can't imagine depending on Pryor in a winner-take-all-situation. By the way, we haven't even mentioned the finger issue he's been dealing with over the last few weeks. Independent of quarterback performance, there's reason to consider benching Pryor outright. He's been hampered by both a poor offense and a lingering injury. Barring a deeper league format or a thin bench, owners need to look elsewhere for a wide receiver in Week 17.

 

Jamison Crowder - (WR, WAS)

Jamison Crowder has had himself a great, albeit overlooked, sophomore campaign in 2016. It seems as if he's flown under the radar for anyone who doesn't actually own him. Yet over the last four games, his numbers have dipped and he's been disappointing for owners who've needed him when it counts most. Fortunately for the Redskins, they still have plenty to play for in Week 17, so Crowder will be out there all game.

Most recently, Crowder yielded just one reception for three yards against the Bears. In the two games before that, he has a combined six catches for 61 yards. It's been a rough stretch for Washington's team leader in receiving touchdowns. The skinny on Crowder basically boils down to this: any owner who was depending on him for the playoff push should already have reason to use him this late in the year. There are plenty of situations where he was a usable asset. Whether it was as a WR3/flex, a deep-league play, or an injury replacement, odds are anyone using him is justified. This is a case of you knowing your own team better than I do. If Crowder has helped you get thus far, feel free rolling him out there against the Giants. If he's been more of a bench stash or you're deciding between him and someone a little more reliable like a Michael Crabtree, stay away from Crowder.

If all of that sounds like a hedge, it is. Pull up anyone's fantasy rankings of an expert you trust. I would bet that if you were already considering using Crowder he's the highest of the bunch of wide receivers you were comparing him to. He's had a better year than the likes of Brandon LaFell and Jeremy Maclin. As the old adage goes, "dance with who brung ya."

 

DeMarco Murray - (RB, TEN)

The reason DeMarco Murray makes the list this week is fairly simple. Heading into Week 16, he had successfully exceeded expectations for his 2016 season. Unfortunately, he threw up a dud at the worst possible time against the Jacksonville Jaguars and could easily be the reason a lot of owners were knocked out. Throw in Marcus Mariota being injured, the Tennessee Titans' elimination from playoff contention, and the presence of Derrick Henry, and we're looking at a cloudy matchup when Murray faces the Texans on Sunday.

As grim as his Week 17 outlook looks on paper, there still isn't enough evidence to suggest DeMarco Murray can't have a great game. Yes, the Texans can stack the box now that Mariota is gone, yes the Titans have nothing to play for, and yes Derrick Henry has earned more touches. All of that is true, yet all of it can also go the other way. Maybe the Texans, who are locked into the four seed in the AFC, decide to rest more defensive starters than they've let on. Maybe the Titans view 2016 as such an improvement over 2015 that they want to end on a high note, going about their business as usual in an effort to win. And maybe, by virtue of playing to win, they continue with the same sort of split between Murray and Henry they've utilized all year. We think we know how a game goes until that opening whistle blows and it all goes to hell.

When it comes down to it, DeMarco Murray has had far too good of a year to pull him in a championship round. He should still be viewed as a top-10 option at running back, probably even top-five given how other teams are in position to rest starters for the NFL playoffs. Don't worry about last week's struggles or the possibility of non-concrete factors hindering his projection.

 

Latavius Murray - (RB, OAK)

Our second running back and strangely our second Murray of the day, Latavius Murray had the displeasure of being the odd man out in last week's win. The Raiders had three touchdowns from their running backs yet none of them came from Murray. When at full strength, Oakland has managed to feed him with enough of a workload for him to produce all year long. He's taken what they've given him and turned it into a strong 2016 campaign at the RB2 level.

Now, if you've been paying attention to Warning Signals this year, you'll certainly recall that this is not the first time we've looked at Latavius Murray's numbers. We've mentioned that he's been in a timeshare and that it really hasn't mattered as far as his production is concerned. Strangely, Murray actually had the most touches out of Oakland's three rushers with 17. DeAndre Washington came in second with 13 and Jalen Richard ranked third with nine. Simply put, Murray was outplayed by his competition despite having more touches than both.

Looking ahead to Week 17, the Raiders draw a strong Denver defense who is more vulnerable against the run than people realize. Even with the recent emergence of Washington, Murray should still be viewed as a strong RB2. The Broncos have actually given up the fourth most rushing yards this season and have allowed 15 touchdowns on the ground. For as strong as Denver is against the pass, they're fairly easy to run on. Owners should expect Latavius Murray to take advantage of a prime bounce-back spot in a game the Raiders need to win in order to clinch a first round bye.

Updates From Last Week

Jordan Reed - (TE, WAS)

Jordan Reed was ultimately ruled out of last week's game against the Bears, but is expected to return when the Giants come to town. My position on Reed hasn't changed; he's far too risky a play to roll out there in a win-or-go home situation. There's no way he's playing at 100 precent and we've already seen how little he can do on that bum shoulder. Make other plans for Week 17.

Ben Roethlisberger - (QB, PIT)

Ben Roethlisberger didn't have a massive game against the Bengals but he didn't kill you either. He came alive late in the game and rallied the Steelers to two AFC North-clinching touchdowns. Hopefully you benefited from that and the rest of your fantasy team was able to do enough to net you a win. Locked into the three seed, Pittsburgh has announced most of their starters will rest in Week 16, Big Ben included. Start your backup QB or find one on the waiver wire.

Adrian Peterson - (RB, MIN)

Another Week 16 scratch, Adrian Peterson didn't play against Green Bay. I took a strong stance last week and basically said anyone considering starting him is nuts. Same goes for this coming Sunday.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

I've been a strong proponent of Larry Fitzgerald's PPR numbers but he took a noticeable dip in Arizona's Christmas Eve upset of the Seattle Seahawks. Still, it should be noted that this could end up being his last game in the NFL. I can't imagine Larry Fitzgerald taking it easy so owners already depending on him should feel confident he'll want to go out on a high note.

 




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