December 2, 2016

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler takes a look at some players sending out warning signals that you should be concerned about heading into Week 13 of the fantasy football season.

For most fantasy owners, this is it, the final week of the regular season. Whether you're sitting pretty at 9-3 or hanging by a thread at 6-6, chances are you know what your team is heading into this last playoff push. Similar to last week, this edition of Warning Signals is going to focus on players that are on the border of your lineup. We are far past hoping guys "turn it around" and are fully entrenched in the "they are who we thought they are" part of the season.

As usual, the end of the piece will revisit the names we discussed from the previous week. Here's a little tease for you: no one really set the world on fire since we last spoke about them. At any rate, here we go with the new names for Week 13.

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Heed the Warning Signs

Matt Ryan - (QB, ATL)

Let's start with a player that is bound to turn some heads, shall we? If you're reading this thinking "Matt Ryan has been great this year, what is he doing here?" there's a pretty good chance you don't actually own Matt Ryan. I say that because he has cooled off considerably over his last few games compared to how hot he was to start the year. He hasn't hit the 300-yard mark since early November and has only three touchdowns over his last two games. The numbers just haven't been stellar as of late.

All that being said, Matty Ice truly is having himself a fantastic year, both in fantasy and in real-life football. There's no question that he's a QB1, quite possibly a top-5 guy with MVP consideration depending how these last few games shake out. None of Atlanta's remaining opponents should scare you enough to bench Ryan if you've been using him all season. The Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, and Panthers can all be thrown on so there's no reason to worry here. I added Matt Ryan in case there's an owner out there thinking he peaked too early. Even if that ends up being the case, it's not like this is a Blake Bortles situation where the player in question doesn't appear to be good at football and is tripping over himself on his way to fantasy relevance. Matty Ice is too good and can very much win you a fantasy championship.

Jeremy Hill - (RB, CIN)

If you've ever read anything I've written about Jeremy Hill in the past, you'd know that I'm a huge fan of the player's talent and fantasy potential. Admittedly, I've been abstaining from talking about him in 2016 after breaking my heart last year. That being said, the injury to Giovani Bernard has thrown him right back into the mix as a high-end RB2 and it's time we revisit this situation. This seems a bit odd that the time to talk about Hill's upside is in a piece called "Warning Signals" but here it goes.

Hill's appearance on this week's list stems from his lackluster day against the Ravens. Baltimore has played exceptionally well against the run so it shouldn't really come as a surprise that Hill struggled even without the presence of Gio Bernard. What should jump out at you, however, was just how heavily Hill was involved in the passing game. Rex Burkhead, the Bengals new passing down back with Gio out, was expected to haul in receptions out of the backfield. Instead, Hill ended up with six receptions for 61 yards. If the Bengals commit to utilizing Hill in more of an every down role, we're looking at a running back that could be a huge difference maker come playoff time.

"What does all this have to do with "Warning Signals," you ask? The answer is I want you to throw out last week's game against Baltimore from a ground game perspective. The Ravens are too good of a defense against the run to say that Hill can't produce even with Giovani Bernard hurt. Call me crazy but I'm hitching my wagon to Jeremy Hill once more for the rest of the way. None of Cincinnati's remaining fantasy-relevant opponents (Eagles, Browns, Steelers, Texans) have as good of a defense as Baltimore. I fully expect Hill to be a high-end RB2 and can easily be a player that influences a lot of fantasy playoff matchups.

Greg Olsen - (TE, CAR)

This isn't the first time we've spoken about Greg Olsen this season but I do expect it to be the last. Over the last five weeks, Olsen has hit double digit fantasy points just once thanks to a touchdown he scored against the Rams in Week 9. His other four games have all been clunkers in standard scoring with his high of four fantasy points coming this past week. It's been a really rough stretch for Greg Olsen and for the Panthers offense in general but you shouldn't be overly concerned.

The reason why you shouldn't panic about Olsen's recent downturn is quite simple; the tight end position has been nothing short of a dart throw this year. With guys like Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed banged up, there really isn't a tight end I'd rather have heading into Week 13. Even if you prefer the likes of Delanie Walker, his late bye week this Sunday hurts his remaining value. With the position as banged up as it is, Olsen owners shouldn't fret. Sure, it could be better, but it could also be much, much worse.

Eric Ebron - (TE, DET)

Our second tight end of the week, Eric Ebron is coming off of a game in which he totaled precisely zero targets on Thanksgiving. That disappearing act likely sent his owners into a frenzy during waivers to see if better options were available. Unless someone was prematurely dropped, Ebron is just about as good as it gets as far as streaming goes.

You're hoping for one of two things: volume or a touchdown. And although Eric Ebron hasn't scored since all the way back in Week 1, he's developed into a volume play for the Lions. Here are his numbers for the three games prior to the goose egg in Week 12: 3-for-70, 7-for-92, and 7-for-79. Add up his target total over that span and you get 23. Detroit has turned him into a consistent contributor in their offense and last week's dud should be chalked up to nothing more than a bad game. Compared to some of the other possible streamers out there like C.J. Fiedorowicz or Cameron Brate, I certainly prefer Eric Ebron. Again, it's volume or a touchdown and Ebron shines in the former category, something a lot of other tight ends lack.

Updates From Last Week

DeAndre Hopkins - (WR, HOU)

Nothing has changed regarding DeAndre Hopkins. His numbers weren't great in Week 12 and they'll continue that way barring an unexpected surge from quarterback Brock Osweiler. Last week I had said that if your team is still competitive this late in the season, you're doing it in spite of Hopkins' poor season. There haven't been any new developments to change my mind on that. Unless you're loaded at receiver, in which case you benched him ages ago, you're stuck starting Hopkins in the event he breaks out in the playoffs. The rest of your team has carried the weight this far, let Hopkins do his thing and hope for the best.

Kelvin Benjamin - (WR, CAR)

Another struggling receiver, Kelvin Benjamin was seen screaming on the sidelines during Sunday's game against Oakland. It was looking like a dreadful outing before a late bomb of a touchdown salvaged his fantasy day. I had mentioned that he was a touchdown away from eradicating his recent struggles from his memory and that only ended up being partially true. With only five receptions over his last two games, that touchdown skews his fantasy numbers quite a bit. That being said, this is a similar case to DeAndre Hopkins in that you'd have to be stacked at wideout in order to justify benching Kelvin Benjamin. Week 13's matchup against the Seahawks is intimidating but that defense was just burned by Mike Evans. Not the best matchup, for sure, but not one that should terrify you either.

Spencer Ware - (RB, KC)

Spencer Ware didn't have the big game I was expecting out of him in Week 12 against Denver but he still had a solid workload. At this point in the season, workload is a huge plus at the running back position and Ware is talented enough to turn touches into fantasy points. There can't be more than 10 backs you'd rather have than Ware right now so don't sweat it too much. He's fine.

Matthew Stafford - (QB, DET)

If you listened to me last week, I had advised looking elsewhere at quarterback rather than use Matthew Stafford in Week 12. Turns out, that was the right call as Stafford finished with just 16 points in standard scoring. However, I also said that you can put him right back into your lineup in Week 13 against the Saints. I'm standing firm on Stafford; the last few weeks have been rough but the schedule is a lot easier from here on out. I'm sticking with Stafford if he's been my starter all this time.