Four Pitchers Who Changed Teams - What Will It Mean for Fantasy Baseball?

March 11, 2022

Justin Dunbar evaluates four starting pitchers who changed teams ahead of the 2022 MLB season. Will these SP be risers or fallers for fantasy baseball?

For those who have been living under a rock, we are currently in the middle of a lockout between the owners and the MLB Players Association. As a result, we are left stuck in waiting mode. Will a full season be played? When will a deal be made? The future of this season is in flux currently.

On the bright side, although there cannot be any transactions made right now, we had plenty of action on the free-agent market prior to December 1st, when the lockout was put into place. Thus, we still have a lot to analyze in terms of players who have changed teams.

For a pitcher, changing teams can mean a lot in terms of fantasy. Whether it's going to a different environment in terms of ballpark or defense or a changed pitch mix, a pitcher's production can differ completely from the previous season, simply due to this team change. For these four pitchers, I believe changing teams could do wonders for them. All of them have the potential to be reliable fantasy contributors this year, and all ended up in positive spots for their development. When it is all said and done, they should be quite pleased with their decision, as you should be if you were to draft them.

Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants

With a 5.10 ERA and 5.22 FIP in three seasons as an Oriole, Alex Cobb was traded to the Angels in a salary dump trade. The deal wasn't seen as much, but it ended up resulting in the Angels receiving a quality pitcher. In 93.1 innings, the 34-year-old posted a 3.76 ERA and 2.92 FIP. It was a clear revelation for him, and the question is whether this is sustainable.

In my opinion, I don't see why not. Cobb increased his swinging strike rate to 11.2% while raising his strikeout rate to 24.9%. What changed? His overall approach. Cobb had never been someone who missed bats at a high rate. However, with multiple strong off-speed pitches, he does do a good job inducing chases. Moreover, he decreased his zone rate to 43.1%, which I believe led to the spike in the swinging strike rate.

Something else that stood out with Cobb was how he attacked hitters when he fell behind in the count. Previously, he had relied on sinkers in the zone to induce contact when he fell behind. In 2021, though, that changed:

ALEX COBB PITCH% WHEN BEHIND IN THE COUNT

• 2021: Sinker- 49.4%, Splitter- 39.3%
• 2020: Sinker- 61.1%, Splitter- 33%
• 2018: Sinker- 63.3%, Splitter- 27.4%
• 2017: Sinker- 61.9%, Splitter- 15.9%

Cobb's success landed him a two-year, $20 million deal, but the money isn't the major takeaway from a fantasy perspective. Rather, it's the landing spot. In San Francisco, as a member of the Giants, Cobb can benefit from one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. Meanwhile, with a better defense, we should see his .315 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP) come down. 

Then, there is also the organizational philosophy. The only pitcher who threw more splitters than Cobb last year was Kevin Gausman, who was on the Giants and made a similar transformation with them. In other words, I think it's likely we continue to see Cobb rely on his splitter and miss bats at a notable level. Add that to his ability to induce ground balls at a high rate (54.1%), and there is no reason he can't post a sub-4.00 ERA with solid ratios again. Currently being drafted as the 102nd pitcher off the board, there's clear value to be had in drafting him right now. He's made clear changes and now ends up in a tremendous environment. It's the best of all worlds.

Jon Gray, Texas Rangers

Getting out of Colorado is always a plus for a pitcher. Ever since being drafted with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft, Jon Gray has been expected to become an ace. Unfortunately, that hasn't come to fruition, but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Gray's outlook after signing a four-year, $56 million contract with the Rangers.

Something that stands out with Gray is that he has two plus pitches and two inferior pitches:

JON GRAY CAREER wOBA ALLOWED BY PITCH TYPE

• Fastball: .387 wOBA Allowed
• Slider: .239 wOBA Allowed
• Changeup: .413 wOBA Allowed
• Curveball: .227 wOBA Allowed

Gray started to get the memo last season, bumping his slider usage to 38.2%. However, he still threw his fastball nearly half the time, and only threw his curveball 6% of the time, less than his changeup (8%). There is clear potential here if Gray were to ditch the changeup and go to a three-pitch mix, while slightly decreasing his fastball usage. All of a sudden, I think you have extra strikeout upside.

Gray's career 4.59 ERA is skewed heavily by a career .317 BABIP; his career FIP, for perspective, is 3.91. The Rangers led the league in defensive runs saved last year, and their ballpark skews pitch-friendly. I'd definitely take the under on 4.00 with regards to his ERA, with there being extra upside if he makes a few tweaks to his pitch mix. As the 97th pitcher off the board, I'll gladly take that!

Steven Matz, St.Louis Cardinals

After posting a 9.68 ERA in 30.2 innings during the 2020 season, it didn't look like Steven Matz would have a rotation spot moving forward. However, in need of pitching, the Blue Jays acquired him from the Mets, giving him a chance to re-establish himself. 

Ultimately, Toronto was rewarded for their belief in him. In 150.2 innings, Matz turned in a 3.82 ERA and 3.79 FIP, resulting in a 2.8 fWAR. So, what changed? Really, it was just better luck. Allowing line drives can be fluky from year-to-year, especially when one of the years consists of a shortened season. As you can see, this affected Matz greatly:

STEVEN MATZ LINE DRIVE RATE ALLOWED BY YEAR

• 2021: 24%
• 2020: 41.7%
• 2019: 22.8%
• 2018: 21.2%
• 2017: 23.7%
• 2016: 23%
• Career Average: 23.7%

As a result of Matz allowing extra line drives, his barrel rate allowed spiked to 13.5%. This resulted in an absurdly high 4.11 HR/9 in addition to a .341 BABIP allowed. With natural regression to the mean and better luck, it isn't a surprise he was able to rebound this season.

As a result of his success this season, Matz signed a four-year, $44 million contract with the Cardinals. Really, there couldn't be a better landing spot for the 30-year-old. The Cardinals ranked second in defensive runs saved last year and return all of their infield starters. That should do wonders for his BABIP. With a career ground-ball rate of 48.8%, his BABIP has been above .300 in all but one season; he has suffered from playing behind poor defenses, particularly with the Mets. Playing behind the best defense of his career is going to be tremendously favorable for him.

Then, there is Matz's home run rate. According to Baseball Savant park factor, Busch Stadium plays in the fourth-least friendly ballpark for home runs. The combination of allowing fewer hits and home runs is what we'd call quite beneficial, no? With a very high floor given his circumstances, consider him a value as the 94th pitcher being drafted in NFBC drafts this past month.

Dylan Bundy, Minnesota Twins

Similar to Jon Gray, Dylan Bundy had to deal with an extensive amount of hype after being drafted with the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft by the Orioles. Once seen as the top pitching prospect in the game, injuries and struggles with home runs got in the way of him matching lofty expectations. 

Then, Bundy was traded to the Angels, and he flourished during the 2020 season. In 65.2 innings, he posted a 3.29 ERA and 2.95 FIP, posting career-bests in strikeout rate, walk rate, and home-run rate. Heading into 2021, the expectation was that he had finally discovered his potential and would be a big part of the Angels' postseason plan. 

Instead, Bundy struggled mightily. His 21.2% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, while he allowed a 6.06 ERA and was out of a spot in the rotation by the midseason point. What happened? Well, there are a number of factors to consider. 

Let us start with Bundy's pitch mix:

DYLAN BUNDY wOBA ALLOWED BY PITCH

• Fastball: .373 wOBA Allowed
• Slider: .234 wOBA Allowed 
• Curveball: .252 wOBA Allowed
• Changeup: .338 wOBA Allowed
• Sinker: .402 wOBA Allowed

In 2020, Bundy thrived by decreasing his fastball + sinker usage to under 42%. In 2021, though, he spiked that to 51.6. Meanwhile, after starting out with a fastball velocity of 92 MPH, he was under 91 MPH by May. It truly was a season to forget for the 29-year-old.

In Minnesota, we should hopefully see Bundy increase his breaking ball usage to make up for his lack of fastball success. Furthermore, pitching in the AL Central will help boost his numbers in addition to pitching in the 10th-least friendly ballpark for home runs. We know the talent is there. Now, the question is: can it be maximized in Minnesota? That's the hope, and he's a great flyer pick as the 163rd pitcher off the board currently.

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