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Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week's Breakdown features TPC Craig Ranch for the PGA Tour's AT&T Byron Nelson. Hit it long, hit long irons good, and avoid the 3 putts is the name of the game this week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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TPC Craig Ranch: Par 71, 7414 Yards
Hole 1: Par 4, 431 Yards
Off the Tee: The first tee shot will be one of the only tee shots of the round where there will be trouble close enough on both sides that the tee shot can't be aimed specifically in a direction to avoid the trouble on one side of the other. However, it is not an overly long hole, so they could choose to lay up short of the fairway bunker if they wanted. A tee shot that avoids the bunker and the creek will leave a great chance for an opening birdie.
Approach: A short-iron or even a wedge for long hitters to a green protected by a couple bunkers on the left side of the hole. With the irons they'll have in their hands, the bunkers shouldn't be much in play. As long as the tee shot avoids trouble, the approach should take on the pin for the most part and should be a great opening scoring chance. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 2: Par 4, 466 Yards
Off The Tee: This is the first of a handful of longer par 4's, but the tee shot shouldn't be difficult. There is plenty of room between the tree lines, so they can just take whatever angle works for their carry distances and let it fly around the corner. Distance will be helpful so they can knock distance off of the upcoming approach.
Approach: A mid-iron approach for most to one of the smaller greens on the course (although there aren't really any "small" greens). The larger greenside bunkers are quite a ways away from the edges of the green, and the smaller one is just off the right side, so bunkers aren't really an issue here. Hitting the green with longer irons will be more difficult, so longer hitters will have an advantage with shorter clubs into a small-ish green. Par will end up being a good score here, but could see more scoring from longer hitters. Green Size: 15x40 Yards
Advantage:
Hole 3: Par 4, 420 Yards
Off the Tee: This hole is set up weirdly, but there is no real trouble off the tee as long as they keep it right of the creek. It will be tempting to hug the left side for a really short approach, but it's not really necessary. Even a miss going right will still leave a wedge and a scoring opportunity
Approach: This is the only green on the course that doesn't have a bunker to protect it. With wedges in hand, they should be attacking this green. Scoring should be low on this hole given how easy the tee shot and how short the approach is. Green Size: 35x20 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 4: Par 3, 219 Yards
Approach: Length is what will make this hole difficult. A large bunker protects the entire left side, but the green is decent in size so a green in regulation won't be too difficult. Anything on the green for a chance at a par will be great on this hole. Green Size: 20x30 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 5: Par 5, 569 Yards
Off the Tee: All of the par 5's this week will be reachable, this one being the longest and probably most "difficult". If they can avoid the trees on the left and bunker on the right, they can take the green on if they want. More likely though, we will see many lay up to a very short wedge and attack the green that way because of the bunkering around the green.
Approach: The green will be hard to hit from the tee shot because of the large bunker protecting the front of the green, so we'll see most approaches onto this green from either short wedges just left of the green or chips around the green or from the bunker. This green is small, but it won't matter with the very short approaches. This will be a scoring hole for the whole field. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 6: Par 4, 361 Yards
Off The Tee: Decision time off the sixth tee. Bunkers are in play on both sides with driver, but they're also in play even if they start to move back with fairway woods or irons. The scoring play is to hit driver and take the really short approach even if it ends up in a bunker, but we could see some very conservative play with layups off the tee as well. The bunkering is done very well so that any kind of decision off the tee is a dangerous one.
Approach: As long as they keep it out of the bunkers, this is a great opportunity to rack up a birdie. Bunkers are around the green but they won't matter much with how short the approach will be. They should be able to attack any pin here and scoring should be low. Green Size: 15x25 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 7: Par 3, 232 Yards
Approach: Another long par 3 here, and just like the last one, there are some bunkers guarding the left side of a decent-sized green. Hitting the green won't be too difficult, but the green is large so they could still be a long ways from the hole. Avoiding 3 putts to keep bogey off the card will be the key on this hole. Green Size: 20x30 Yards
Advantage: GIR, 3 Putt Avoidance, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 8: Par 4, 482 Yards
Off The Tee: A longer par 4 here, but no problems off the tee. There's plenty of room between tree lines, so they will need to see how far down the hole they can get it so they can shorten up the long approach.
Approach: A long iron for most of the field to a wide green that's protected on the front, back and right sides by a bunker. The green isn't deep, so distance control with a longer iron will be important. Longer hitters will have an advantage with shorter approaches and smaller dispersions into this green and will likely have more scoring chances. Green Size: 40x15 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 9: Par 5, 564 Yards
Off the Tee: Plenty of room off this tee as they look to close out the opening nine. Longer hitters will have to be careful of the fairway bunker if they want to be able to get to the green. As long as the tee shot is in play, the whole field should be able to get to this green.
Approach: It will be a very long approach, and they have to make sure they clear the creek. A very small bunker protects the front of the green but it likely will only be a problem with a pin tucked right next to it. If they can't hold the green, they'll just be a little long with an easy pitch back onto the green. This is a scoring hole for the field. Green Size: 30x20 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 10: Par 4, 471 Yards
Off the Tee: A long par 4 starts out the back nine. They should be able to take it down the middle-right side of the fairway and take the left fairway bunker out of play. The right side is open for a miss if they need to, it will also offer up a little better angle into the green.
Approach: A mid-iron approach to a smaller green protected on the left side by a bunker. The green is narrow, so left-to-right misses will likely miss the green. An accurate longer iron will be important here to make sure bogey stays off the card. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, GIR, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 11: Par 4, 457 Yards
Off the Tee: There's just enough space on this tee shot for the trees on either side to not really be an issue. Only the extreme misses will find trouble on this hole. It's pretty straightforward otherwise, just aim down the middle and let it fly.
Approach: A mid-to-short iron to a green that is mostly unprotected. Bunkers are off of the green quite a ways, and they'll have irons in their hands that they can be pretty accurate with. Good mid-iron players should set up some good scoring chances. This hole should play under par for the week. Green Size: 35x20 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 12: Par 4, 493 Yards
*note: image is from prior year event at back tee box, hole should play somewhere around 50 yards shorter than image shown
Off the Tee: They changed this hole to a par 4 this year. Scores likely won't change too much compared to prior years, but *score to par* will. It may seem like a "harder" hole, but that's only because they changed it from a par 5 to a par 4 and a 5 on a par 4 obviously looks much worse than a 5 on a par 5. They do narrow the fairway a bit here and bring the trees in, but it will still take a big miss on either side to get in trouble off the tee. There should be mostly no issues on this tee shot.
Approach: The front of the green is wide open if they need to roll it up there and there is plenty of room to error left if they need to do that, depending on the length of their approach. A large bunker running along the right side will catch any misses that float that way. Given the length of the hole as a par 4 now, a par on this hole will be a good score. Green Size: 10x35 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 13: Par 4, 512 Yards
Off The Tee: This par 4 is not far off of the length of the previous hole, and the scoring average will probably be similar. It is a long carry over the creek, and some shorter hitters may even have to aim very far to the left in order to avoid the water or bunkers. Long hitters can take the bunkers out of play, but there's still a long approach upcoming.
Approach: A long approach likely over 200 yards for most of the field here, but luckily it is to a pretty large green. Bunkers protect the front and back for short and long misses, but there's plenty of room and they shouldn't have much of an issue getting it on the green as long as the tee shot is in play. We will likely see some long putts on this green, so 3 putt avoidance will be the stat to watch for here. Green Size: 40x20 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, GIR, 3 Putt Avoidance
Hole 14: Par 4, 330 Yards
Off The Tee: Another short par 4 with a decision to be made off the tee. They certainly can hit driver here, but most will be risking it rolling into the bunkers just past the fairway. Unlike the last short par 4 where it was likely more advantageous to hit driver, this one we should see many more lay ups off the tee to avoid all the bunkers.
Approach: A very short approach here that should leave plenty of good scoring chances. The bunkers around the green are really only a problem for those that hit driver off the tee. No matter the choice off the tee, as long as it stays out of the water this should be a scoring hole for everyone. Green Size: 40x15 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 15: Par 3, 216 Yards
Approach: It hasn't happened much on this course, but the primary defense on this hole is the water running along the left side of the green. The good news is, the green is good-sized so they should be able to aim away from the water and still have no issues keeping the ball on the green. The two green-side bunkers will be in play all four days because they'll have to aim that way to avoid the water. A par on this hole will be plenty good. Green Size: 20x35 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 16: Par 4, 492 Yards
Off The Tee: Coming down the stretch is the final long par 4, but just like many others they can just aim a little right and avoid the bunker issues on the left. There are some trees on the right, but not many and they should be able to navigate around them if they find themselves over there. Distance is what they're looking for on this tee shot.
Approach: Another long-iron approach to a green that has some bunkers near it but they look to be very far off the edge of the green. It's also a large green, so even if they were close by they likely won't have too many issues hitting the green. As is the case with a handful of other greens prior, there will be some long putts on this hole because of the approach distance and size of the green, so avoiding 3 putts will be key. Green Size: 35x25 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, Bogey Avoidance, 3 Putt Avoidance
Hole 17: Par 3, 147 Yards
Approach: The scorecard measures this hole under 150 yards, which is very short for a PGA Tour par 3, but you can see in the image that there is another tee box behind the measured distance so they can extend this hole back to 170 yards if they want to. At the current distance, it will be just a wedge or 9 iron for everyone and they'll be looking to score heading into the last hole. Green Size: 15x30 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 18: Par 5, 552 Yards
Off the Tee: The last hole brings the last of the short par 5's. This one will likely be the easiest of all of them. There are no issues off the tee as long as they aim far enough right to stay out of the cluster of bunkers on the left. From there, everyone should be able to get to the green, just as they were able to on the prior par 5's.
Approach: A long approach to a large green. Those that have to take the ball in low (with fairway woods) will likely find the bunkers protecting the front of the green. The rest should be able to get it on and stay on the green, or just error long for a short chip back to the green. We should see eagles and birdies all over on the final hole which could make the finish on Sunday afternoon very exciting. Green Size: 35x15 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Around The Green, Par 5 Scoring
Conclusions
Driving Distance will be a huge advantage this week. There are only a couple holes where accuracy really matters, otherwise hitting it as far as possible will make way for big advantages. They can remove some bunker or tree trouble on some holes, but more importantly they will have much shorter approaches into the long par 4's and the short par 5's. We should see many of the longer hitters towards the top of this leaderboard.
If they can't hit it far (or even if they can, really), approach play with mid-to-long irons will be important. All but one par 3 is long, all par 5's are reachable, and there are a handful of long par 4's. Long irons are a big key to success this week.
All par 5's are reachable, and with many long par 3's and par 4's, they'll have to be able to score well on the par 5's to be successful.
Finally, many greens are large, and with long approaches there should be a higher GIR rate, but will leave a lot of long putts. Target 3 Putt Avoidance in stat models this week.
Other stats to consider: Par 4 Scoring, Ball-Striking, GIR, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Approach
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.
Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecard:
