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Ryan's list of overrated and underrated CBB power rankings from AP for 2025 NCAA college basketball teams after Week 12. Who are the most overvalued and undervalued college basketball teams heading into Week 13?
It's that time of the season when conference races really start to materialize. With only about a month or so left before tournaments start to tip off, late January is that moment for a lot of teams when they must decide how the season will play out for them. Are they going to seriously challenge for a conference title by making a late-season push? Or will they fall victim to the grueling season of college basketball?
Of course, you can just choose to coast all year and then magically win nine straight games, going from a conference No. 10 seed all the way to a Final Four bid. But those odds are slim to none. It's in most programs' best interest to go with the former strategy.
It's time for the next article of a year-long series: Overrated and Underrated College Basketball Teams, after the release of the weekly Associated Press Poll. All rankings listed are based on the Week 13 AP Poll released Monday.
Overrated College Basketball Teams For Week 13
Missouri Tigers: No. 22 to No. 20
Head coach Dennis Gates had an extremely promising start to his Mizzou career, leading the Tigers to a No. 7 seed and an NCAA tournament win in his first year. His sophomore campaign couldn't have gone further in the opposite direction.
The former Cleveland State coach ended the 2023 season at 8-24 and was completely winless in the SEC. Vanderbilt infamously did so back in 2018-19, but Missouri's embarrassing season marked the second time this was done since the 1940s.
Gates might be the most hot-and-cold coach in the country, because he's got his Tigers back on the map this year, clocking in at No. 20 in the country and tied for third in the super-league that is the SEC. Mizzou is a fairly balanced team that is exceptional at getting to the line (No. 2 in the country), although they could use some practice converting them (only 72 percent as a team).
They lack star power, but make up for this with depth, as 11 different players average more than 10 minutes per game (No. 1 in the conference). This team doesn't make a ton of mistakes but they also don't do anything exceptionally well either. I'd bet a lot of money they won't hold this top-3 position in the conference over the next month. It's hard to see them advancing far in the SEC or NCAA tournament. If they win more than one game in either I will be quite surprised.
The Missouri Tigers Men’s Basketball team has won an SEC game. pic.twitter.com/2FGn0lFr5B
— The Unwritten Rule (@BleavUnwritten) January 8, 2025
Michigan State Spartans: No. 8 to No. 7
The Spartans actually remind me of the team above, but just a better version. Tim Izzo runs a 10-man rotation, and only one player averages double figures (Jaden Akins with 13.9 PPG). He's managed to win 12 straight games, including an 8-0 start to Big Ten play.
It seemed as though everyone had a different pick for the Big Ten winner coming into the year, and the Spartans were seldom picked as the favorite, with a fifth-place prediction in the media poll. Their undefeated start to conference play has been impressive, but the toughest part of their schedule lies ahead of them.
Away games they have yet to play consist of UCLA, Illinois, Michigan, and Maryland while getting Purdue, Wisconsin, and Oregon at home. Not exactly a cupcake lineup of opponents. This is an efficient team on both ends of the floor ranking 21st in offense and 18th in defense per KenPom, but they are horrible at shooting the three (347th) and struggle to take care of the ball at times. I still think Illinois is the best team in this conference, but if Michigan State can come out of that stretch above .500, I might have to switch over to the Spartans' side. For now, though, they belong more in the No. 15-20 range than No. 7 in the country.
If Michigan State is playing basketball, Coenn Carr will have a highlight
pic.twitter.com/LVzhDlSne8— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) January 25, 2025
Underrated College Basketball Teams For Week 13
Utah State Aggies: Unranked (Third in 'Others Receiving Votes')
Talk about a feeder program. The Aggies have had four head coaches within the past five years, all because each has gone on to a more prestigious program due to smashing success in Logan. Craig Smith left in 2021 for Utah, Ryan Odom bounced two years later for VCU, and Danny Sprinkle went to Washington after only one season.
Jerrod Calhoun took over the program last spring after a successful seven-year run as the head man at Youngstown State. All he's done in his first year is lead the Aggies to an 18-2 record thus far, posting an almost perfect 8-1 mark in conference play. The success of this program has been mostly manufactured on the offensive side of the ball over the years, and this team is no exception.
Calhoun's Aggies are 27th in adjusted offense mostly due to an ultra-efficient 56.6 percent effective field goal percentage (16th nationwide). They play at a relatively quick pace and share the ball extremely well (fourth in the country in assist rate) but this can lead to quite a few turnovers (130th in turnover rate).
The team is led by fearless guard Ian Martinez, a fifth-year who has worked his way into being an all-league player after his underutilized stints at Utah and Maryland. The Costa Rican native is one of the best shooters and scorers in the conference. He's a name to look out for come tournament time.
IAN MARTINEZ (@IanJumaine)!!! 4-POINT PLAY FOR THE WIN!! WHAT A GAME!! Utah State wins 81-79 over Boise State in a classic
pic.twitter.com/wTFb6susSE— NCAA Buzzer Beaters & Game Winners (@NCAABuzzerBters) January 12, 2025
St. Mary's Gaels: Unranked (Fifth in 'Others Receiving Votes')
The best mid-major in the country finally gets some love (and no, I am not counting Gonzaga as a mid-major). Randy Bennett is one of the most underrated and overlooked coaches in the sport. He has led St. Mary's to eight top-35 KenPom finishes in the past 10 years, with four of those inside the top-20.
They have of course been overshadowed by big brother Gonzaga, who has treated the WCC regular season as a mere formality, winning 23 out of the last 24 regular season titles. St. Mary's has still been stellar alongside their conference mates, winning an average of about 25 games per season over the past 15 years. Only a few programs in the country can say the same.
Bennett has the Gaels cooking yet again with an 18-3 record, the three losses coming by an average of four points. In fact, their most recent loss which occurred over a month ago came to the team directly above!
With Gonzaga looking a bit shaky through three months, St. Mary's could pull off another rare feat and take a WCC regular season crown from the almighty Zags. Usually, Bennett's teams make their money on defense, but this team is impressive on the other side of the ball as well. They play at their usual snail-like pace, but rebound the heck out of the ball and rarely turn it over. I don't think this team has the juice to make a deep run in March, but maybe it is the year Bennett finally breaks through in the tournament.
14 straight road wins for Saint Mary’s. The most in college basketball.
— Zack Farmer (@postsbyzack) January 26, 2025
