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Sam Chinitz's fantasy baseball outfielders who are potential waiver wire pickups for Week 3 of the 2020 MLB season. Consider adding and streaming these free agent OF options.
We’re already through two weeks of the MLB season, and although the remainder of the season remains uncertain, fantasy players should continue being active on waivers as if the season will finish on schedule. Trying to predict how the rest of the season will pan out structurally is a fruitless exercise, and it’s valuable to continue approaching waivers as a business-as-usual process.
With that in mind, there are several attractive outfield options on the waiver wire this week. Fantasy teams in need of outfielders should be particularly aggressive this week with multiple solid full-season starting-caliber options available on waivers.
Below are six outfielders worth picking up on waivers this week. Roster rates for waiver pickups are based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and the cutoff is 50% rostered.
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Shallow-League Pickups
Shin-Soo Choo (OF, TEX) - 47% rostered
Playing time is becoming competitive in the Texas outfield, but Choo should still find consistent playing time, making him a steal as a waiver pickup. Over the past two seasons, Choo owns a more than serviceable .264/.374/.444 slash line with 21 stolen bases and 45 home runs, and there’s no real reason to suggest that he won’t post an OPS above .800 again this season.
Choo has struggled so far this year with a .125 batting average and a .576 OPS, but a significant part of his struggles can be attributed to bad luck; Choo’s -0.142 wOBA- xwOBA is absurd, and his contact quality has been excellent so far with a .535 xwOBA on contact. Choo’s depressed 59.3% contact rate continues a trend that dates back to the middle of last season, but Choo is well worth picking up even if his strikeout rate winds up around 28%.
Wil Myers (OF, SD) - 42% rostered
Myers has gotten off to a strong start to the season with a .987 OPS over his first eight games. Power has never been an issue for Myers and that’s no different this year, with his 90.9 mph average exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate both besting his already solid career averages. A high strikeout rate has held Myers back in recent seasons, though, with his 34% strikeout rate from last season sitting higher than any qualified batter’s mark. Encouragingly, he appears to have made strides towards an improved plate approach from September of last season.
Myers’ swing rate is down to a career-low 36% this season, with more than half of the year-over-year decrease driven by a career-low 20% o-swing rate. That more patient approach has helped Myers post an impressive 8.8% swinging-strike rate so far this season. Although Myers’ adjusted plate approach may not completely translate to a diminished strikeout rate (and hasn’t yet) because of his lower than usual z-swing rate, it should allow him to get his strikeout rate down below 30%. Additionally, the more patient plate approach should allow Myers to see better contact quality, further boosting his value. As a result, Myers should be able to maintain an OPS north of .800 this season with the potential to top .850 if he can continue to improve his approach.
Willie Calhoun (OF - TEX) - 40% rostered
Calhoun was drafted in 89% of standard Yahoo leagues this season, and it’s worth remembering why. In 83 MLB games last season, Calhoun displayed strong contact skills and above-average power that combined to help fuel a .848 OPS with a 15.7% strikeout rate. Under the hood, Calhoun posted a 7.2% swinging-strike rate, 89.7 mph average exit velocity, and a 40.7% hard-hit rate, suggesting that last season’s success should largely be sustainable.
A hip injury and a slow start to the season have left Calhoun rostered in only 40% of leagues, but that appears to be an overreaction to an extremely small sample. Now back to full health, Calhoun is likely to bounce back and should be picked up by fantasy players in need of outfielders.
Deeper-League Pickups
JaCoby Jones (OF - DET) - 26% rostered
Jones has been on fire to start the season, posting a .423 batting average and 1.349 OPS over his first eight games. Encouragingly, Jones’s success has largely been built on increased power and a more patient plate approach, suggesting that a breakout season could be in store for the 28-year-old.
Jones saw his average exit velocity jump nearly three miles per hour to 91.6 mph last season after overhauling his swing, and that power bump has stuck as Jones has posted a 92.1 mph average exit velocity and 57.9% hard-hit rate so far this year. Also encouraging is that Jones’s z-swing/o-swing ratio has been trending upward this season, indicating that his plate approach may have improved. It’s a small sample and there’s no doubt that Jones has benefited from some luck this season, but Jones has more than enough legitimate breakout potential to make him worth rostering in deeper leagues.
Ben Gamel (OF - MIL) - 1% rostered
With Lorenzo Cain opting out of the rest of the season, Ben Gamel should slot in as Milwaukee’s primary center fielder. Likely to be consistent playing time makes Gamel worth rostering in deeper leagues, as the 28-year-old has the potential to be a productive fantasy asset this season.
Gamel reworked his swing this offseason in a move that should allow him to exhibit more power to all fields, and the early results have been encouraging. With a career .722 OPS, Gamel’s floor is high enough to warrant buying him this week and hoping that he’s able to break out with his new swing, especially for fantasy players needing outfielders in deeper leagues.
Tyler O’Neill (OF - STL) - 4% rostered
O’Neill has enjoyed a powerful start to the season with a .600 SLG over his first five games, but it’s his contact rate that’s worth getting excited about. With a career 90.6 mph average exit velocity and 42.3% hard-hit rate, power has never been an issue for O’Neill. A career 35.8% strikeout rate has significantly diminished O’Neill’s chances of being worth a roster spot on fantasy teams, but that’s beginning to change.
O’Neill’s contact skills and plate discipline profile have been trending in the right direction since the middle of last season, and he’s posted a strong 8.5% swinging-strike rate so far this year. A 25% strikeout rate should allow O’Neill to flirt with an OPS of around .850 this season, and that level of upside makes him worth picking up in deeper leagues.
Looking Ahead
Nick Markakis (OF - ATL) - 6% rostered
Markakis opted back into the season last week, making him worth keeping an eye on for outfielder-hungry fantasy players. With a .292/.362/.432 slash line over the past two seasons, Markakis should provide an OPS north of .750 this season with what is likely to be nearly everyday playing time in the Atlanta outfield.
That’s not anything to get super excited about, but it does make Markakis worth rostering in deeper leagues. Fantasy players should monitor Markakis’s return and consider picking him up as long as he claims consistent playing time.
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