NFL Touchdown Predictions: Week 17 Fantasy Football TD Props (2023)

December 29, 2023

Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 17 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for five players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.

Happy Holidays everyone! I love how fantasy playoffs correspond with some of the best times of the year. This week, we have some special Pie Shop picks for the New Year. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, we selected five players and finished 1-4.

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.

We have matchups on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday this week as we head into the fantasy playoffs. In this article, I am selecting players who I believe have the best chances of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 17 Pie Shop.

Picks (22-22)

David Montgomery (RB, DET)

Lions @ Cowboys, Saturday 6:15 PM MST/8:15 PM EST

You would think being on the road and 5.5-point underdogs would be a Jahmyr Gibbs explosion game. Although that could certainly be the case, I think Montgomery has sneaky appeal in this matchup. The Cowboys have been miserable at stopping the run lately, and the Lions will be well aware that the Cowboys' offense is electric at home.

The Detroit defense is no match for this Cowboys team at home. As a result, I expect Dan Campbell will want to keep their offense on the field and establish the run early and often. They should succeed on the ground, and Montgomery is their grinding yardage back. Montgomery has scored in every game but three and I suspect Montgomery will find the end zone for his 11th touchdown of the year. 

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Bengals @ Chiefs, Sunday 2:25 PM MST/4:25 PM EST

For the first time in almost a decade, it doesn’t feel certain that Kelce will turn this season around. In what has been a surprising season for the Chiefs, they now go against their AFC nemesis, the Bengals. 

Additionally, this Bengals defense has consistently gotten worse all season. More specifically, this defense struggles to cover the TE position. The Bengals are allowing the most yards and receptions per game to the TE position. If there is ever a time for Kelce to get back on track, you would think it would be in this great matchup against a team he dislikes. 

*Warning, explicit language in the following tweeted video*

Chris Olave (WR, NO)

Saints @ Buccaneers, Sunday 11:00 AM MST/1:00 PM EST

This is a massive divisional duel. If the Buccaneers win, they will likely lock up the division. However, the Saints can stay alive in the playoff hunt if they can secure a victory. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have been rolling on offense and are on a four-game win streak.

As for the Saints, it hasn’t been pretty, but they now face a Buccaneers team that is allowing the most passing yards this season. Last week, Olave managed nine receptions on 13 targets for 123 yards against a solid Rams' defense. The Buccaneers should force the Saints to score, making Olave a crucial weapon for this matchup. 

Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)

Raiders @ Colts, Sunday 11:00 AM MST/1:00 PM EST

Taylor is back and stepped right into 15 carries for 91 yards and two scores. That was also against a stingy Bucs' defense. This week, he gets the Raiders, who allow the eighth-most rushing yards per game to the RB position. 

Zack Moss (who missed last week) has been limited this week and appears to be trending in the right direction for Sunday. This may take away some of Taylor’s usage if he is healthy; however, it’s clear Taylor is the lead back and should manage another great game. I have a good feeling Taylor will find the end zone in this one.

Davante Adams (WR, LV)

Raiders @ Colts, Sunday 11:00 AM MST/1:00 PM EST

I originally wrote this for Josh Jacobs, however, he is dealing with a Quadricep issue and is doubtful to play. Zamir White was admirable in last week's game and should have a nice day against the Colts who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game and the third-most rushing touchdowns to the RB position. 

Davante Adams hurt a lot of fantasy managers last week. If you manage to escape with him on your team, I think he is primed for a good game. The Colts allow the eighth most touchdowns to the WR position.  The Raiders will likely be playing from behind in this one, forcing Aidan O'Connell to complete multiple passes after the first quarter. Give me a Davante Adams Pie Shop special in Championship week.

Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!

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