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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 10 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for four players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.
The Pie Shop is back in business. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, was not our best week, finishing with only one correct lock pick. So far the real success we’ve had has been our locks. As a result, we are switching up the format again.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
We are creating a new format. Instead of providing six selections that range from uncommon to locks, I will only have a “locks section”. As a result, we will be cutting this down to four picks and disregarding name values. This is truly who I believe has the best chance of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 10 Pie Shop.
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Locks (7-4)
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Packers @ Steelers, Sunday 10:00 AM PST
Aaron Jones is officially back. After exploding in the receiving game in Week One, Jones strained his hamstring. Three games since returning from injury, we finally saw the veteran lead this offense to their third win of the year.
Jones is one of my favorite players in the league, not only being a star for fantasy but also being a Walter Peyton Man of the Year Nominee. It's impossible to watch the MLF tweet below and not smile (unless you are a Bears fan).
In Weeks seven and eight, A.J. Dillon out carried Jones 21-15. Heading into Week Nine, we heard Matt Lafleur talk about unleashing Jones and went on to give him 20 carries and six targets.
Jones is clearly the most stable part of this offense, and he should continue to be featured regardless of the game script. This week the Packers face a Steelers defense that is allowing the second most rushing yards to the RB position. Additionally, the Steelers’ elite pass rushers may force Jordan Love to check down more frequently. It’s shaping up to be another good week for the veteran and I expect he’ll open the Pie Shop for the second week in a row.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Titans @ Buccaneers, Sunday 10:00 AM PST
Now that Will Levis is starting for the Titans, this game has great shootout potential. Both these teams pride themselves in their ability to stop the run and relatively ignore their secondary together. Plus, both the QBs aren’t afraid to sling it around the yard.
Baker should have a Mayfield day this week (see what I did there?). The Titans are allowing 230 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to the WR position. Considering this passing attack is very concentrated between Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, both should have big days.
Evans is clearly Mayfield's favorite big play and red zone weapon, scoring in five of his eight games this season. Last week, he had a 53-yard bomb where he was dragged down on the one, calling back a score. Evans should be able to use his size and dominate the Titans' corners. This game should be selling pies left right and center, and I’m confident Evans will get his hands on one of them.
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Giants @ Cowboys, Sunday 1:25 PM PST
Arguably the most disappointing fantasy player of this season is looking for only his third touchdown of the season. Yes, you read that right, he only has two touchdowns this season, and both came in Week One in their first game against the Giants.
What makes Pollard so disappointing is that he is getting all of the work fantasy managers had hoped for. His 120 attempts and 35 targets are good for 12th and sixth in the league respectively. Plus, this Cowboys offense has been heating up.
Thankfully, this week they face the team they shut out 40-0 in Week One, AND they’re on their third setting QB. I don’t think there is a more positive projected gamescript for the Cowboys running game. The Giants are also allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing touchdowns to the position. If Pollard is ever going to turn his season around, it has to start this week.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
Jets @ Raiders, Sunday 5:20 PM PST
This is not a fun offense to predict touchdowns. Even though Hall and Garrett Wilson are elite young players in the NFL, they can only control so much with Zach Wilson under center.
The Jets are built to rely on their defense to keep them afloat, with a solid ground game to keep the pressure off Zach Wilson. This week against a rejuvenated Raiders team is the perfect matchup for their style of play.
The Raiders are allowing the third most rushing yards to the RB position and the eighth most rushing attempts against. This Jets defense should have a field day against rookie Aiden O’Connell, and Hall should be the primary benefactor. His 12+ carries and three-plus targets in each of his last four games should bode well for him to find the pay dirt.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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