NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 5) - Targets and Avoids

October 7, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

It's the slide that had nearly everyone up in arms. Patrick Mahomes giving himself up right at the goal line with under two minutes to go in the Chiefs vs. Jets Sunday night game. Kansas City led by three, they were favored by eight. The Jets had no timeouts when Mahomes elected to slide short of the goal line rather than score. Gamblers were furious. But Mahomes did the right thing! But this is the problem with gambling.

Yes, I understand most of the money was on KC but the players do not care. Many have argued scoring would've ended the game too, but that's not entirely true. Mahomes sliding guaranteed the win. A touchdown would've left it at 99 percent. It's time the public realized gambling is for the public and playing the games is for the professionals. They play to win, not cover.

Kansas City and the rest of the favorites all won in Week 4. Barely anyone was eliminated from survivor pools unless you had the Steelers or forgot to enter your pick. This coming week is the first of the byes and there are not too many big favorites.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 5

• Dolphins -11 vs. Giants
• Lions -9 vs. Panthers
• Commanders -6.5 vs. Bears

Teams on bye: Browns, Bucs, Chargers, Seahawks

These lines are from Tuesday.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 5

Lions (-9) vs. Panthers

Detroit is turning into a team you expect to win. When they were on "Hard Knocks" two years ago, head coach Dan Campbell told his team, we need to get a place each week where believe we can win, regardless of who we're playing. It appears the Lions have gotten to that point. They are one of the five best teams in the NFC behind the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys.

They have a top-10 defense in terms of yards per play and a top-5 defense in terms of opponent yards per play. They're a physical team that gets to the quarterbacks, averaging 3.3 sacks per game. The Lions can run the ball and have plenty of weapons for Jared Goff to throw to.

Carolina is the complete opposite. Through four weeks, it looks like Carolina made a big mistake in taking Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. They rank 30th in yards per play and are averaging 16.8 points per game, 24th in the league. And those offensive stats are skewered after Andy Dalton started Week 3 in which they scored 27 points. Besides for their defensive touchdown, Carolina did not score one offensive touchdown. Young needs to play better.

It makes me nervous this will be one of the two teams everyone in the pool is on. But I don't see many better options.

Lions 33 - Panthers 17

Dolphins (-11) vs. Giants

Miami would have been my top play, but I peeked ahead to next week and they play Carolina. The look-ahead line in that game is 10.5. But right now, Week 6 is pretty tough. And that's why I want to save Miami. They're off a beatdown in Buffalo but they'll rebound. The Giants are the perfect team to play when you need a bounceback.

Not only are they on a short week, but they did look dreadful Monday night against the Seahawks. Seattle is 30th in opposing passing yards per game allowing 280 per game. And Daniel Jones could only muster 203 yards, some of which came in garbage time. He's getting paid $160 million over four years. Yikes.

The Giants' offense was going five yards forward before going 10 yards back because of a penalty. It's not all Jones' fault. He was sacked 10 times but there were instances where he could've gotten rid of the ball quicker. To beat Miami, you need to keep up with them and the Giants surely can not do that.

Dolphins 38 - Giants 17

Packers (-2) at Raiders

If you don't like the first two or want to avoid the popular selection, I could make a case for Green Bay. Despite them getting decisively beaten Thursday night against Detroit, they're still two-point road favorites. That means they'd be a touchdown favorite if this game were being played in Lambeau. The Packers have had plenty of time to prepare for this Monday night game. In terms of yards per play, they're 10th in offense and 11th in defense. They're also 11th in third-down conversions. Green Bay is well-rounded.

If Jimmy Garoppolo can't go, then Aidan O'Connell will get the start. He didn't look terrible but this interception cost them the game.

If O'Connell gets the nod again, the Packers should win.

Packers 26 - Raiders 17

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 5

Commanders (-6.5) vs. Bears

We thought Week 1 would be the only chance to take Washington but that's not the case because Chicago is arguably the worst team in football. More on them in a moment. The Commanders barely survived against the Cardinals to open the season and are coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Eagles in overtime.

I find it interesting that when you expect Washington to play well, they don't, and vice-versa. They did not cover against in Week 1, came from 21-3 down to beat Denver in Week 2, then got destroyed 37-3 by the Bills, and this past week nearly beat Philly when they were getting 8.5. Now they're in the perfect teaser position, tease them down to pick 'em with another team and all they have to do is win. Seems simple, right? That's where Vegas gets you.

Chicago has lost 14 in a row after blowing a 28-7 lead at home to the Broncos.

Justin Fields is a disaster. The excuses for him have to end. When you're up by 21, you need to win that game.

But is too much to trust Sam Howell and the Commanders to get a win when they're expected to? The good part about taking a Thursday night game is, if you win, it's over early and you can sit back and enjoy the Sunday games. But I'd rather wait till Sunday than take Washington in what's expected to be an ugly Thursday night game.

Commanders 21 - Bears 20

Bills (-5.5) vs. Jaguars (London)

I would not use Buffalo here. You may want to use them later in the season such as against the Giants, Patriots, Bucs, Bengals, Broncos, and Jets just to name a few. Jacksonville is staying in London for their second consecutive game there. Buffalo should win but this game is not worth it.

Bills 24 - Jaguars 23

Bengals (-3) at Cardinals

Is the wrong team favored here? Before the season, this game appeared to be an afterthought. Arizona was said to be tanking and Cincinnati had Super Bowl aspirations. But one month can change a lot. Joe Burrow is injured.

His offensive line is not good. Burrow had no time to throw and when he did, nothing happened. Burrow went 20/30 for 165 yards. His yards per attempt on the year is a paltry 2.65. Words can not describe how abysmal that is. Besides the Monday night game against the Rams, they have shown no life.

Arizona though, has looked really good. They have been in every game and could easily be 3-1 instead of 1-3. While they lost 35-16 Sunday against the Niners, they trailed 21-16 heading into the fourth. Joshua Dobbs threw for 265 yards and ran for 48 against the vaunted Niners defense. If they can get pressure on Burrow, Cincy is in for a long day in the desert.

Cardinals 24 - Bengals 17

Chiefs (-5) at Vikings

Not only will you want to save Kansas City for other weeks but Minnesota has the offense to keep up with the Chiefs. Kirk Cousins has had an outstanding season throwing for 1,214 yards, 11 touchdowns to four interceptions while completing 68.8 percent of passes. There will be a game where they put it all together, the offense and defense play well. Could it be this week?

Vikings 34 - Chiefs 28

NFL Best Bets for Week 5

• Saints (+1.5) at Patriots - New England should not be favored here. New Orleans has the better offense and defense. They have playmakers in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas.
• Cardinals (+3) vs. Bengals
• Eagles (-4.5) at Rams - Philly is still not getting the respect they deserve. The Eagles are 4-0 and critics say they haven't won pretty. But they win and keep winning. It's really hard to stop their offense, especially the tush-push.

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 0-3
• 2023 season: 6-6
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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