RADIO
A month into the season and coaching is somehow getting worse and worse. The Chargers were in every position to upset the Bucs but Anthony Lynn had them run the ball up 24-7, with under a minute to go from their own 10. The Chargers proceeded to fumble and Tom Brady converted for a touchdown. 24-14 at halftime and that was it. If you've been reading this column for some years, you know I've been an early Bill O'Brien hater and been saying for four years he shouldn't be the coach.
Favorites went 10-5 straight up in Week 4 and 7-7-1 against the spread. My best bets went 1-2 against the spread, survivor plays went 3-0 and avoids went 0-3. The Ravens and Rams were the plays in survivor pools last week. LA gave everyone a scare but came through. The 49ers were the biggest favorite to lose outright.
This week we have another full slate kicking off with the Bucs and Bears Thursday night. Bye weeks also begin with the Lions and Packers off.
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Survivor League Week 5
Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 5; Chiefs -13.5 vs. Raiders, Ravens -13.5 vs. Bengals, Cowboys -9.5 vs. Giants, Rams -8 @ Washington, Seahawks -7 vs. Vikings, Saints -7.5 vs. Chargers, Steelers -7 vs. Eagles, and Cardinals -7 @ Jets.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 5
RAVENS -13.5 vs. Bengals
Baltimore beats up on bad teams. They get into trouble when facing elite teams. The Ravens, who average 160 rushing yards per game, third most, will be able to run the ball all over Cincy. The Bengals allow 158 yards on the ground per game, 27th in the league.
Joe Burrow is going to be very good, but he's taking way too many big hits. Baltimore will blitz Burrow and get to the rookie.
Ravens 31- Bengals 14
CHIEFS -13.5 vs. Raiders
Kansas City is the best team in football. They rarely make mistakes, and when they do, you better make them pay. Just ask New England. The Raiders don't have the offense or defense to keep pace with the defending Super Bowl champions.
Chiefs 37 - Raiders 21
Rams -8 @ WASHINGTON
Are the Rams actually good? Their three wins have come against the Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, all NFC East teams. Their lone loss was against Buffalo where they fell down 28-3, then scored 29 unanswered, and then lost. It's too early to know about the Rams. The fact that they couldn't blow out the Giants was telling though. Jared Goff was 25-32 for 200 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. 55 of those passing yards came on a Cooper Kupp catch-and-run. Goff is not good when facing a good pass rush, which Washington has. He's also bad in cold weather, which it shouldn't be cold Sunday, but there is a chance of rain.
Washington is 30th in yards per play and Aaron Donald is going to constantly pressure Dwayne Haskins. However, Washington's defense will make some plays, but the Rams pull it out late.
Rams 24 - Washington 19
STEELERS -7 vs. Eagles
The Eagles offense is abysmal. They're averaging 4.5 yards per play, tied for last with the Jets. The Steelers are off a bye (COVID postponement) and have a defense that's second in opponent yards per play with 4.8. Pittsburgh's offense is average and Philly's defense does rank in the top-five in yards per play and third down's. But how much can their defense hold up against a legitimate two-dimensional offense with an offense that stinks?
Steelers 21 - Eagles 13
COWBOYS -9 vs. Giants
The Giants Defense somehow ranks sixth in opponent yards per play, but now they face a statistically great offense. Dak Prescott has been putting up such good numbers, because their defense is so bad. The Giants offense is 29th in yards per play, 27th in third-down conversion percentage, and dead last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. If there's a game the Cowboys Defense can play well, it's this one.
Cowboys 28 - Giants 10
Cardinals -7 @ JETS
Can it get any worse for the Jets? Their loss to practice squad quarterback Brett Rypien on a short week was embarrassing. Sam Darnold gave the team a chance, but the defense couldn't get off the field and make the stops when they needed to. Now the defense faces a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Kyler Murray, and plethora of weapons.
Arizona's defense is average but if the Jets can't convert touchdowns in the red zone, like they couldn't last week, then this game is over.
Cardinals 23 - Jets 14
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
SAINTS -7.5 vs. Chargers
The Chargers put up a really good fight Sunday in Tampa Bay and they should have won. This game in April seemed daunting but without fans on a Monday night in New Orleans, it seems to be just another game. Drew Brees's arm strength is shot and the Chargers Defense has looked good. They're above average in opponent yards per play and third-down conversion percentage, but they force field goals in the red zone ranking third in that category. The Saints are 12th in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That's the key to this game.
A7.5 is too much to lay especially considering how much Justin Herbert has been improving by game.
Saints 27 - Chargers 26
SEAHWKS -7 vs. Vikings
Seattle has finally taken the leash off Russell Wilson and their offense has looked dominant. Wilson's rainbow throws are pure beauty. Their offense is second in yards per play and they're averaging 35.5 points per game, second in NFL. They should have no problem against a Vikings Defense that ranks 25th in opponent yards per play. But Seattle's defense has not shown me anything. They're 29th in opponent yards per play and 30th in getting off the field on third down's. The Vikings have two very good offensive weapons in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson that will expose the Seahawks secondary.
Seahawks 38 - Vikings 35
TEXANS -6 vs. Jaguars
Houston will either blow out Jacksonville or lose a close one. They have a new interim head coach in Romeo Crennel so this game is really a crapshoot.
Texans 24 - Jaguars 17
Best Bets for Week 4
- Vikings +7 @ Seattle - Notes above. Backdoor cover will be wide open late too if they're down two scores.
- Washington +8 vs. Rams - Washington's front-seven will keep them in this game.
- Panthers +2.5 @ Falcons - I'm getting points against a team that is nothing short of a mess. The Falcons are poorly coached, can't play defense, and make one boneheaded play after another.
Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2020 season total: 5-7
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
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