RADIO
Welcome to the Week 6 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
While the Week 6 slate brings us our first set of byes -- the Raiders, Lions, Texans and Titans are off -- there are still plenty of strong values across the board. Therefore, as customary, we have multiple candidates to consider at each position, including one site-specific special that could pay off nicely.
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Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Kirk Cousins, MIN at MIA | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $29
Cousins' salary is especially eye-catching on DK, but he still qualifies as a solid value on the other two sites as well. The veteran signal-caller is off to a strong start in new head coach Kevin O'Connell's offense, completing 66.2 percent of his passes, tossing at least one TD in each game thus far and hitting his season high in passing yardage in his most recent game in Week 5 against the Bears (296 yards). He now lines up for a matchup against a Dolphins defense whose best player, cornerback Xavien Howard, is iffy due to a groin injury and may be somewhat limited even if he suits up.
Miami's secondary has been surprisingly giving early this season, ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders and allowing a robust 287.5 passing yards per home game. The Dolphins have also yielded 11.6 yards per completion and an 8:1 TD:INT overall, and opposing signal-callers have enjoyed above-average efficiency against them in the form of a 68.0 percent completion rate. Factoring in the Fins have also given up better than 50.0 percent passing (12-for-22) and six passing TDs in the red zone and opponents have averaged a co-NFL-high 4.3 red-zone scoring attempts per game in the last three, Cousins' case is even stronger.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at ATL | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $24
Garoppolo appears to be getting more and more comfortable in his old/new starting job with every passing week, even as he's still looking to improve on his overall efficiency. The veteran is still completing only 60.7 percent of his throws, but he's generated a 5:1 TD:INT, while 12 of his 65 completions have already gone for 20 yards or more. Garoppolo has also upped his passing yardage total over that of the prior week in each game, topping out at 253 against the Panthers in Week 5. The matchup against the Falcons seemingly lays the groundwork for even more success in Week 6.
Atlanta has surrendered the fourth-most passing yards per game (278.2), along with the fifth-highest completion rate (68.7 percent) and 10.5 yards per completion at home. The Falcons also have a modest eight sacks through five games and have conceded a co-NFL-high 4.2 red-zone scoring attempts per game. Coupling the latter metric with the fact Atlanta has allowed a 16-for-31, 117-yard, eight-touchdown tally to quarterbacks in the red zone, Garoppolo shapes up as one of the best potential value plays at QB of the week, especially with San Fran projected for a solid 24 points.
ALSO CONSIDER: Geno Smith, SEA at ARI | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $28
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at CLE | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $26
Stevenson's DK salary is excellent for his upside and expected role, and although he's arguably much more on the edge of the value range on the other two sites, he makes for a solid play there as well. The second-year pro offered a glimpse of what he's capable of with a true lead-back workload in Week 5, taking over primary duties once Damien Harris exited with a hamstring injury and ripping off 161 yards on 25 carries against the vulnerable Lions defense. Stevenson now gets a crack at another unit that's proven highly susceptible to the run in that of the Browns, giving him plenty of appeal.
Cleveland comes in allowing 138.2 rushing yards per game, including an AFC-high 181.3 rushing yards per game over the last three. The Browns are also giving up a whopping 5.94 RB yards per carry and rank 31st in both second-level and open-field yards allowed. The latter two metrics could spell trouble against Stevenson, who boasts an above-average 17.6 percent broken-tackle rate and is averaging an elite 3.8 yards after first contact. Cleveland has even surrendered a 22-152-2 line through the air to RBs and Stevenson already has 16 targets in five games despite operating in a part-time role in the first four contests, furthering his case.
Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. MIN | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
Similar to Stevenson, Mostert offered a reminder of what he was capable of with an expanded role in Week 5, as he managed 113 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against the Jets. That followed a solid 15-69 tally versus the Bengals in Week 4, giving the veteran plenty of momentum heading into Sunday's favorable matchup. It's still unseasonably humid in South Florida compared to the rest of the country -- especially Minnesota -- and with the Vikes undoubtedly relegated to their dark uniforms, Mostert could certainly enjoy an advantage over some fatigued defenders as the game unfolds.
Minnesota has surrendered 137 rushing yards per road game, along with 4.5 yards per carry on the road. The Vikes have also yielded a 27-215 line through the air to RBs in the first five games, while Mostert is averaging a solid 9.3 yards per reception over a small sample of seven catches thus far and has elusiveness and speed to succeed in space. Minnesota has even given up 4.1 yards per carry in the normally constricted area of the red zone and seven red-zone rushing TDs -- the latter tied for the second-highest figure in the league -- and Mostert, who appears to have taken on clear lead-back duties but worked in more of a timeshare over the first few games, already has seven red-zone touches to his name.
ALSO CONSIDER: Eno Benjamin, ARI vs. SEA| DK: $4,600, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $15
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Chris Godwin, TB at PIT | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $22
This is starting to have the feel of a season in which Godwin will never really be at full health, but he obviously retains a key role in the Buccaneers' passing game and is worthy of consideration any time he has a solid matchup at his current salaries. Such is the case in Week 6, as the Steelers defense has had its share of troubles defending the pass, and Godwin comes in with some momentum after having generated a 13-120 line on 16 looks in his last two games, a sample under which he's been targeted on just under 24 percent of his routes.
The Steelers have yielded the second-most passing yards per game (287.6) and second-highest yards per completion (12.4), along with the third-most receptions to wideouts (73) and the most touchdowns to the position (nine). What's more, Pittsburgh has given up seven red-zone passing touchdowns, and the Steelers are tied with multiple teams for third-most red-zone scoring attempts per game allowed (3.8). Meanwhile, Godwin, who entered 2022 with 28 touchdowns over 56 games in his previous four seasons but hasn't found the end zone in three games thus far, is arguably overdue and is already averaging just over a red-zone target per contest after drawing 26 across 14 games in 2021.
Tyler Lockett, SEA at ARI | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $21
Lockett's DK and Yahoo salaries are particularly eye-catching, and he could certainly offer a strong return at his FD figure as well. The veteran speedster's recent role and body of work make him a very intriguing consideration for a game in which the projected total sits at 50.5 points as of Thursday afternoon and the Seahawks have an implied total of 24 points. Lockett checks in having been targeted by Geno Smith on 36 occasions in the last four games, a tally he's parlayed into a formidable 29-378-2 line.
The Cardinals have allowed 272.3 passing yards per game, 11.0 yards per completion and an NFL-high 74.0 percent completion rate at home, and they're tied for seventh-most receptions surrendered to wide receivers (66). Lockett is dealing with a hamstring injury as of Thursday's practice, but assuming he's good to go for this contest, he should have a significant role considering his 39.9 percent air-yards share, 26.1 percent target share and 26.3 percent route participation rate.
Rondale Moore, ARI vs. SEA | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $17
Speaking of that Cardinals-Seahawks battle, Moore is a very viable piece to include in a lineup alongside Lockett in anticipation of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. After mustering a meager 3-11 line on five targets in his Week 4 debut, Moore fought through a knee issue and the return of A.J. Green to the lineup to generate a 7-68 tally on eight targets against the tough Eagles defense last Sunday. Now, he draws a matchup against a Seattle defense that's been especially poor against the run, but that hasn't really been much better versus the pass.
Seattle is giving up 268.5 passing yards per home game, as well as an NFL-high 12.8 yards per completion in that split. The Seahawks have notably given up the fewest receptions to wide receivers (48), yet they're also giving up a robust 13.9 yards per catch to the position and are tied for third-most red-zone passing touchdowns conceded (eight). Considering they're also tied with the Panthers for third-most red-zone scoring attempts per home game allowed (4.3) and Arizona's implied team total of 26.5 points impressively sits behind only that of the Bills' 28.5 on the entire slate, Moore could pay handsome dividends at his salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER: Alec Pierce, IND vs. JAX | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $14
Tight End DFS Value Plays
George Kittle, SF at ATL | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $20
Having made a case for the 49ers' passing game in general in Garoppolo's entry, Kittle's salaries are all the more eye-opening. Whenever a player of his caliber is available at such a modest investment, it's a golden opportunity to jump on him, especially considering the matchup. Kittle has a serviceable 11-99 line on 15 targets through three games, but given his previous body of work, an overall boost in production, and some touchdowns, are almost certainly coming in short order, especially considering his prior rapport with Garoppolo.
The Falcons have given up the second-most receptions (34) and third-most receiving yards (355) to tight ends. That makes Kittle even more appealing than usual, especially when factoring in Atlanta's aforementioned penchant for allowing red-zone receiving TDs. Kittle has only two red-zone targets through three games, but that could well see a boost Sunday, which would give the star tight end an excellent chance of outperforming his salaries across the board.
David Njoku, CLE vs. NE | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $17
Njoku's DK and Yahoo salaries jump off the page/screen, and he's certainly very affordable on FD as well. The athletic veteran has come on over the last three games in particular after a modest first pair of contests, posting a 20-250-1 line on 23 targets. Njoku has been targeted on an impressive 26.1 percent of his 88 routes during that sample as well while seeing five red-zone looks in the process. That latter figure is particularly noteworthy when considering the trouble the Pats defense has had preventing touchdowns by tight ends thus far this season.
New England has given up the second-most receiving TDs to tight ends (five), despite conceding a relatively modest 20-170 line to the position otherwise. The Pats have given up 11.4 yards per completion over the last three games as well, while Njoku is averaging a career-high 10.0 yards per target and is boasting a career-best 82.8 percent catch rate. Given his connection with Jacoby Brissett and the fact Bill Belichick could well opt to concentrate on shutting Amari Cooper out of the air attack, Njoku could be due for another busy afternoon.
ALSO CONSIDER: Irv Smith Jr., MIN at MIA | DK: $3,200, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $13
DK/FD-only Special: Zach Ertz, ARI vs. SEA | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,000
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