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Welcome to the Week 3 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Week 3 features plenty of teams with high implied totals, giving us a solid road map on where to hunt out some value plays that could well overdeliver on their modest salaries. Moreover, there are also the usual array of good positional matchups that bear targeting regardless of other metrics surrounding the game.
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Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Derek Carr, LVR at TEN | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $29
Carr bounced back from tossing three picks in Week 1 against the Chargers to put together a second straight two-touchdown performance versus the Cardinals, albeit in a heartbreaking loss. The veteran quarterback is typically very adept at avoiding costly mistakes -- making his season-opening performance largely an outlier -- and notably, he's already completed nine passes of 20 yards or more in new head coach Josh McDaniels' offense, certainly an encouraging number considering his Week 3 matchup.
The Titans' secondary was shredded by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs on Monday night, and they'll now have to deal with Carr and Davante Adams on a short week, which can be nearly as daunting. Tennessee allowed an elevated 12.0 yards per completion in that game, and Carr is averaging an impressive 11.6 yards per completion thus far. With reasonable salaries across the board and another game now under his belt with Adams, Carr could be in good position to deliver strong returns, especially with Vegas likely to be especially aggressive in search of its first win.
Marcus Mariota, ATL at SEA | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $22
The Falcons faced no shortage of scrutiny, and in some cases, ridicule, prior to the season for their offensive personnel, including Mariota. With his last season as a true full-time starter having come back in 2018, Mariota was seen as the ultimate journeyman who, to make matters worse, was carrying plenty of rust. However, the 2015 first-round pick has had his moments over the first two games against a pair of tough defenses in those of the Saints and Rams, and naturally, he's also capable of supplementing his fantasy production with his legs.
The Seahawks should be the most palatable matchup yet for the Falcons' passing game, considering Seattle has allowed 257.0 passing yards per contest and the fourth-highest yards per completion (11.7) through the first two games. The 'Hawks also have just three sacks through two games and are giving up an NFL-high 50.89 yards per drive thus far, furthering the versatile Mariota's case at his appealing salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER: Matt Ryan, IND vs. KC | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $23
Running Back DFS Value Plays
David Montgomery, CHI vs. HOU | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $18
Montgomery was outperformed by backfield mate Khalil Herbert in the Bears' rain-soaked Week 1 win over the 49ers, but the third-year pro still logged a solid 17 carries in that contest and also saw four targets. He then bounced back in Chicago's miserable Week 2 loss to the Packers with a 15-122 line on the ground and a pair of receptions, offering a glimpse at his considerable upside. Montgomery could be well set up for a strong encore as well, considering he draws a matchup at home Sunday against the vulnerable Texans run defense.
Houston has opened the season allowing 163.0 rushing yards per game, the third-highest figure in the NFL, along with 4.7 yards per carry. Montgomery has enjoyed a significant red-zone role over the last two seasons in particular with a whopping 109 touches in that area of the field during that span, and he's quickly logged four this season despite the challenging weather conditions in Week 1. Then, the Texans allowed a co-NFL-high 22 red-zone rushing TDs a season ago, and Montgomery has opened the season trampling over defenders to the tune of a 28.1 percent broken-tackle rate, making him a good bet to fight for every yard against a vulnerable defense.
Miles Sanders, PHI at WAS | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $17
Somewhat lost in the early Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/hoopla is Sanders, who's opened the season by taking 30 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown over his first two games. The versatile fourth-year back has logged 37 and 36 snaps in those contests, an encouraging development in terms of consistency after Sanders saw his playing time fluctuate rather drastically in a handful of games a year ago.
The Commanders have allowed 157.0 rushing yards per game in the first pair of contests, along with an NFL-high 7.5 yards per carry. Washington has also surrendered a pair of rushing TDs to RBs thus far, while Sanders has five receptions in the first pair of contests, and with 5.9 yards per carry in that span as well, he certainly has the speed to exploit the chunk plays on the ground Washington has been giving up.
ALSO CONSIDER: Josh Jacobs, LVR at TEN | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $18
DK/Yahoo Special: Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL at SEA | DK: $5,800, Yahoo: $15
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Tee Higgins, CIN at NYJ | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $21
Higgins cleared concussion protocol just in time ahead of Week 2 to go on and log a whopping 60 snaps against the Cowboys and generate a 6-71-1 line on 10 targets. The third-year wideout had also gotten off to an encouraging start in Week 1 against the Steelers (2-27 on two targets over 25 snaps) before his injury, and he'll now get a crack at a defense whose lackluster pass rush could give his quarterback more time to throw than usual, and that also surrendered plenty of efficient passing production to the less dynamic air attack of the Browns a week ago.
The Jets have conceded 11.1 yards per completion over the first two weeks, putting them in the bottom 10 of the league in that category. New York has also surrendered four receiving touchdowns to wideouts already, while Higgins is already averaging 12.3 yards per grab and lays claim to nearly 23% of the Bengals' air yards through two games. If Joe Burrow does indeed have more time to scan the field in Week 3, Higgins could certainly be a favorite mid-range and occasional deep target, especially if there's plenty of attention being heaped upon Ja'Marr Chase.
Drake London, ATL at SEA | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17
London has quickly become a favorite, trusted target of Mariota, with the rookie making a quick NFL splash by bringing in 13 of 19 targets for 160 yards and a touchdown over his first two games. The 2022 eighth overall pick makes for a great, cost-conscious pairing with Mariota in tournament lineups for a game against a Seahawks defense that no longer has Jamal Adams (knee) and therefore more susceptible to the downfield prowess of a wideout like London.
The Seahawks' vulnerabilities against the pass were already discussed in Mariota's entry, and in addition to the numbers cited there, it's worth noting London has commanded over just one-third of Atlanta's targets and over 36.0 percent of the team's air yards over the first two games, making him an especially appealing option with that type of volume at his salaries.
DeVonta Smith, PHI at WAS | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17
As alluded to in his teammate Sanders' entry, Smith has already made a mark early this season, coming back from a blanking in Week 1 against the Lions to produce a 7-80 tally on seven targets against the Vikings on Monday night. Smith's talent and speed were naturally going to emerge before long, and Sunday, he has a shot to keep the momentum going against a Commanders defense that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league through two weeks with 11.2 average yards per completion allowed.
Washington has given up four passing touchdowns in the red zone through two games as well, along with the fifth-most receptions (29) and eighth-most receiving yards (380) to wideouts, along with 13.1 yards per reception. Smith naturally has the speed to take advantage of the Commanders' propensity to give up big plays through the air, and after his Week 2 success, Philly will undoubtedly be focused on keeping him rolling in a tough divisional matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER: Allen Robinson, LAR at ARI | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17; Corey Davis, NYJ vs. CIN | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $14
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Tyler Higbee, LAR at ARI | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $18
Higbee came through nicely a week ago at even slightly lower salaries with a 7-71 line on nine targets, a performance that had been preceded by a five-catch Week 1 effort versus the Bills in which he'd drawn 11 targets. With his efficiency back on track in Week 2, Higbee now has a chance to keep rolling versus a Cardinals team that's been the league's most vulnerable to tight ends over the first two games.
Arizona has surrendered an NFL-high 19 receptions, 212 yards and three receiving TDs to tight ends through two games. Higbee's 20 targets over the first two games make him quite the value play at these salaries as well, especially considering the game could evolve into a pass-heavy, back-and-forth affair and that the Cardinals are behind only the Seahawks in yards per drive allowed (46.2) while also giving up an NFL-high seven red-zone passing touchdowns and 3.53 points per drive.
Dawson Knox, BUF at MIA | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $16
Knox is dealing with a foot injury as the practice week begins, but assuming he's back to health by the weekend, he becomes an intriguing option to roll with at his salaries. The athletic tight end made up for a pedestrian opener where he had just one reception for five yards by posting a solid 4-41 line on five targets in the rout of the Titans on Monday night. In Week 3, Knox will find himself right in the middle of what shapes up as the marquee matchup of the week and facing a Dolphins team that's been generous to tight ends over the couple of weeks this season.
Miami has allowed an 18-200-1 line to tight ends over the first two games, putting them behind only the Cardinals in the first two categories. Miami has given up the league's fifth-highest completion percentage as well (71.2), along with an NFL-high 12.2 yards per completion. Given Knox's ability to get downfield and the fact Diggs and Gabe Davis, if he plays through his ankle issue, will be dealing with tough cornerback play, the emerging tight end could have a particularly important role in the air attack during what could be a wire-to-wire battle.
ALSO CONSIDER: Logan Thomas, WAS vs. PHI | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $15
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