RADIO
The NASCAR Truck Series season is in its final stretch. Eight drivers remain in the hunt to win the title: Chandler Smith, Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, Christian Eckes, Stewart Friesen, John Hunter Nemechek, Ty Majeski and Grant Enfinger.
Last time out at Talladega, Matt DiBenedetto drove to victory, which means that only one driver, Ty Majeski, has won his way into the Championship 4, as he won at Bristol in the opening race of the Round of 8. Which three drivers will join him at Phoenix in November?
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Truck Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Truck Series DFS lineup picks for the Baptist Health 200 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Truck Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 10/22/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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John Hunter Nemechek ($11,300) - Starting 13th
Qualifying was rained out, so because Nemechek only finished 24th at Talladega last week, the formula used to determine the lineup puts him 13th on the grid. His average starting position this season is 7.6.
When we're doing DFS, we've got to find some small edges, and this could be one of those. If qualifying had happened, Nemechek likely starts farther up and would have had less place differential upside. Because it was rained out, we get him in what could be a really good spot.
Nemechek doesn't have a recent track record here in Trucks, since the series wasn't here last season, but he does have two top 10s in four Truck starts here in NEMCO equipment, as well as two top 10s here in the Xfinity Series. Essentially, it's been a good track for him, and he could break through and get his first Homestead win this weekend.
Corey Heim ($10,000) - Starting 19th
Heim is probably the chalk play here. You've got a KBM Toyota driven by someone who has already won twice this season and he's starting 19th? Really good amount of PD upside here.
And that's...really about all I can say on Heim. I've scoured Racing Reference and I can't find any evidence that Heim's been to this track before, so there's some obvious risk there, but he's adjusted to the Truck Series well this season, with eight top 10s in 14 starts. You've got to have some exposure to Heim because of this starting spot.
Ben Rhodes ($9,500) - Starting 2nd
Rhodes starts beside Ryan Preece on the front row, offering him a good chance to get out front and lead some laps early on and to maybe shake the monkey off his back here.
That last sentence refers to what's been a frustrating history for Rhodes here. His best finish in five starts in the Truck Series is 10th. he led 43 laps in 2017, but only finished 19th. His average finish in the Truck Series here is 15.7, worse than at all but three other tracks.
Rhodes is definitely a contrarian play. You don't look at his track history and think he's going to win this one. But since I'm recommending paying up for JHN and Corey Heim, that means some of the more obvious candidates to win are out of our price range, which is why we're pivoting to Rhodes, who has flashed some potential here before.
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Max Gutierrez ($7,500) - Starting 31st
Because qualifying was rained out, there are some place differential plays that I really like—guys I bet would have qualified better than they're starting if we'd actually had qualifying.
Gutierrez is in the 22 truck this week in what will be his fourth start of the season and his third in this truck. In the two previous starts in the 22, Gutierrez was eighth at Nashville and 21st at Pocono.
At this price, 21st would be a decent day for fantasy, and eighth would probably put him in the winning lineup. I kind of doubt this truck ends up this far back if qualifying had happened, so thanks, rain!
Stefan Parsons ($6,000) - Starting 29th
Parsons is in the Youngs Motorsports No. 20 truck this week, marking the second time he's driven for this team this season. In the first one, he started 25th and finished 22nd.
Looking at Parsons from the macro level, he's just an insanely tough driver to get a read on. He's run a lot of races for some really bad teams, which skews his numbers. The question is how he does in better equipment. I'd say this truck is definitely better than the B.J. McLeod car he's driven for much of the year in Xfinity and is more in line with the Alpha Prime Racing car he's been in recently in that series. In that car, Parsons has six top 20 finishes in 10 starts.
At $6,000, Parsons is someone you can take a low-cost flyer on and hope that he can get this truck into the top 20.
Tyler Hill ($5,700) - Starting 36th
It's hard for me to not like Tyler Hill as a punt option when he starts this week. He's made five starts this season, with three of those ending in top 25 finishes, so there's a pretty good chance that if he can just keep the truck clean, he'll gain 10ish spots on Saturday.
Add to that the fact that Hill has been solid here at Homestead. In 2019, he finished 23rd, and then in 2020 he finished 25th. This is a boring play in the sense that there's not really a world where Hill contends for a top 15 finish or anything, but his price allows you to make some easier decisions elsewhere. Good head-to-head play here.
