LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Chicago

September 20, 2023

Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2023 Chicago event at Rich Harvest Farms. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.

The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Rich Harvest Farms, located in Sugar Grove, Illinois. The course sits just outside of Chicago and has consistently found itself inside Golf Digest’s Top 100 Courses list. Rich Harvest Farms is the home course for the Northern Illinois golf team and has hosted other notable events in the past. Some of these events include the 2009 Solheim Cup, the 2015 and 2021 Arnold Palmer Cup, the 2017 Men’s Golf Championship and the 2022 LIV Chicago event.

As noted above, this will be the second consecutive year that Rich Harvest Farms has hosted LIV Chicago. Last year Cameron Smith won at -13, defeating Peter Uihlein and Dustin Johnson by three strokes. Smith heads to Chicago to defend his title off the heels of a seven-shot victory at LIV Bedminster, the largest win in LIV history. The Aussie is searching for his third individual win of the season and has an opportunity to lock up the individual season title this week.

The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network in 100% of U.S. markets, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally the event will be broadcasted in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.

LIV Golf Chicago Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

Rich Harvest Farms is owned and designed by Jerry Rich. The course was built in 1989 and expanded in 1999. This week the course will play as a 7,401-yard par-71 with Bent grass greens. As you can tell by the yardage, Rich Harvest Farms is a longer course, but this week will not be an example of pure distance over accuracy.  Many holes on the course are tree lined and you will need to be in the fairway, or the risk of a big number comes into play. A good example is the “Devil’s Elbow”, which will require a draw into a narrow landing zone. A miss in either direction likely leaves you with a punch out.

Last year only three players reached double digit strokes under par. While there are certainly areas around the course will distance will be advantageous, an erratic driving week will take a player out of contention very quickly. My focus this week will primarily be on total driving as opposed to choosing either accuracy or distance. In addition, good iron play will be crucial this week. The greens are large and there are many lagoons around the course and trouble around the greens which will put an emphasis on good approach play.

We also have the party hole returning this week for the first time since LIV Adelaide! The 160-yard par three 17^th hole will be deemed the “party hole” and the fans are expected to be rowdy. This could be particularly fun down the stretch of the tournament on Sunday. The party hole was a huge hit in Australia and got especially rowdy after a Chase Koepka hole in one. We will see if Chicago can duplicate the magic this week.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Chicago

Below are the current odds to win as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - Chicago

This week I am going to spread out my card with three guys in the mid range. I'm going to take into account a combination of recent form, motivation and history of playing both at this course and in this region. I am also taking into account the value of these players who I believe have more win equity than their odds suggest.

Abraham Ancer +2500

It’s been a weird year for Ancer, who started off the season with a victory at the Saudi International and looked prime for a strong 2023. However, that wasn’t quite the case. Ancer had just two top-20 finishes in his first seven LIV events this season and looked visibly frustrated at times on the course. However, it appears that the 32-year-old has turned a corner, rattling off four straight top-20 finishes. He found himself on the podium after a third-place finish at the last LIV event in Bedminster.

I spoke with Ancer after round one at Bedminster, and he mentioned having to roll with the punches of an up and down season. He said that he didn’t feel like he was playing bad golf, but the results didn’t necessarily reflect that. That certainly changed over the weekend when Ancer ended up on the podium celebrating a third-place finish. Since Bedminster, Ancer has teed it up once at the International Series England event where he finished T4.

I am expecting Ancer to continue his strong play down the stretch of this season. I believe the course sets up well for him with his precision off the tee and he showed last month at Bedminster that longer courses do not deter him from competing for a victory. Ancer is still in my opinion one of the more talented players in the LIV Golf League and I think a victory will come sooner rather than later for him.

Sergio Garcia +2800

For the first time in over a decade Sergio Garcia will not be representing Europe in the Ryder Cup, which is set to take place next week on European soil. Reports came out earlier this week that Garcia attempted to pay back all his DP World Tour fines in a last-ditch effort to be a part of the Ryder Cup this year. I can neither confirm nor deny the validity of those reports. However, I can confidently report that Garcia and his team are absolutely gutted by his absence from the event. Sergio is the all-time leading point scorer in Ryder Cup history and the event holds a special place in his heart.

I expect the veteran to come out with a chip on his shoulder this week in Chicago. In particular, after Nick Faldo recently stuck it to the LIV players saying that everyone has moved on from them and that this is one of Europe’s strongest teams they’ve ever fielded. Sergio finished T4 at this course last year and aside from maybe Valderrama, this might just be the most motivated we’ve seen Garcia at a LIV event since joining.

The Spaniard has a strong off the tee game and has racked up quite a few close calls in the last year and change. Garcia has five top-six finishes and lost in a playoff earlier this year in Singapore. At +2800, I won’t hop off now.

Thomas Pieters +4000

Thomas Pieters has not played tournament golf since the Bedminster event a month ago. I think the time off may benefit Pieters who is coming off T25 and T38 finishes in his last two LIV Golf League starts. While August was a bit of a struggle for the Belgian bomber, it wasn’t that long ago we saw him right in the mix heading into Sunday at the Centurion Club in London. The 31-year-old finished the week T6 but shot just even par on Sunday while heavily in the mix after round two.

The potential to win is clearly there for Pieters and there’s a lot to like about him this week. He’s a powerful hitter and won’t get overpowered by the length of the course this week but he has also shown he can have success on more tactical courses such as the Centurion Club and Valderrama. Perhaps the biggest positive for Pieters this week is that he’s back in Illinois. Pieters played his college golf at the University of Illinois and had a standout collegiate career competing in this region of the country.

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