Josh Donaldson to Yankees: Fantasy Impact

Andrew Ericksen analyzes the trade that sent Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt from the Minnesota Twins to the New York Yankees in exchange for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela.

Well, those Yankees sure have a type, eh? As if the team didn’t have enough sluggers to fill out its lineup card, the Yankees bulked up their offense by trading for former AL MVP Josh Donaldson on Monday.

The two-time Silver Slugger recipient spent each of the last two seasons with the Minnesota Twins. Last year, over 135 games, he slashed .247/.352/.475 with 26 home runs, 72 RBI, and 73 runs. It was a slightly underwhelming year for Donaldson, but still a big improvement from his injury-riddled 2020 campaign, in which he only managed to play 28 games.

Along with Donaldson, the Yankees also acquired infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa and catcher Ben Rortvedt in the deal. Meanwhile, the team sent catcher Gary Sanchez and infielder Gio Urshela to the Twins. We may still have some additional moves to come from both the Yankees and Twins, but today we’re going to look at the immediate fantasy impact of this trade on both teams, covering the implications of players involved in the trade and players affected by it.

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Josh Donaldson, Newest Bronx Bomber

First and foremost is the headliner of the deal. Donaldson currently has an ADP right inside the top-200. Expect that to change in the coming weeks. Being adorned in Pinstripes typically has the effect of raising a player’s draft value - and oftentimes, rightly so. For Donaldson, though, the change of scenery shouldn’t mean too much for how we value him.

The Twins and Yankees were comparable offensively last year as the Twins were 14^th in the majors in scoring while the Yankees were 19^th. The team’s home ballparks have been equally hitter-friendly over the past three years as well. Both Yankee Stadium and Target Field have a Statcast park factor effect of 98 over the past three seasons (slightly below average). However, one notable trend is that lefties have fared much better at Target Field than righties have over recent years. The park factor effect for lefties at Target Field from 2019 to 2021 was 102, while the park factor effect for righties at Target Field over that same stretch was 95. Meanwhile, righties and lefties were both measured at 98 for Yankee Stadium.

The right-handed Donaldson certainly wasn’t at his best while hitting at Target Field over the past few years. Just one glance at his home/road splits from last year will show you that Donaldson never got fully comfortable in his home park.

In conclusion, the data shows that there might be a plausible reason to slightly elevate Donaldson’s draft stock following the trade, but we’re putting some emphasis on slightly here. Don’t let the allure of Donaldson in Pinstripes elevate him to the fringe of the top-100.

Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela

Even though the Twins didn’t directly trade the two players for each other, the team essentially swapped catcher Mitch Garver for Gary Sanchez.

Little else needs to be said other than…

Sanchez and Garver have two main things in common: they both hit the ball extremely hard and they both strike out way more than they should.

Sanchez had a 13.7% barrel rate and an 89.5 mph average exit velocity last year while Garver had a whopping 17.4% barrel rate and a 92.3 mph average exit velocity. Sanchez struck out 27.5% of the time while Garver struck out 29.2% of the time.

Garver was basically in a 50/50 split for playing time with Ryan Jeffers last year and Jeffers remains with the team going into the 2022 season. Unless the Twins have a strategical change ahead, it’s reasonable to expect Sanchez to have similar playing time to his “clone,” meaning he’ll have fewer at-bats with the Twins than he did with the Yankees. This trade should take Sanchez from his ADP of around 200 to an ADP closer to 250. He can remain undrafted in shallow leagues where only one catcher is started.

Urshela, meanwhile, has arguably been one of the most mistreated Yankees in recent years and this trade just merely cements that stance. He came into town with zero expectations in 2019 and he became one of the team’s most consistent hitters and most valuable defenders over the next two-plus years. Last year was certainly his worst offensive year as a Yankee. He had an OPS of just .720, down from .889 in 2019 and .858 in 2020, but he also dealt with a number of injuries over the year. He missed time due to hand, hamstring, knee, and back injuries.

Urshela’s value in 2022 may be more tangible in real life than in fantasy. His positional versatility is a nice commodity for the Twins and should allow the team some flexibility in how it handles its prospects (more on this soon). While Urshela should certainly be an everyday player for the Twins out of the gate this year, he’s not someone worth targeting in fantasy drafts outside the deepest of leagues.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

It’s been a busy week for IKF, who was part of the Twins organization for only a matter of days before he was shipped to the Bronx.

Kiner-Falefa is heralded as a plus-defender from multiple positions, though we haven’t seen him play one of his primary early career positions (catcher) since 2019. The Yankees will likely utilize him in a utility role, but he could wind up being the team’s top defensive shortstop by such a wide margin that he finds himself in the lineup more often than not.

Offensively, IKF has two very clear areas of expertise. First off, he’s a strong stolen base threat. He swiped 20 bases over 25 attempts last year. Second, he’s very tough to strike out. He has a career strikeout rate of just 15.3%. Last year, his career-best 13.3% strikeout rate ranked in the 95^th percentile of the league.

Overall, IKF was only on draft radars entering this offseason due to his stolen base upside. That upside should be limited in New York where his playing time will go down. He isn’t someone worth drafting or rostering unless we get some indication that he’ll have an everyday role.

The Others

As things currently stand, the player who was not included in this trade and who was affected the most by it is Luke Voit. Donaldson is the Yankees’ new everyday third baseman. That means that DJ LeMahieu is the team’s everyday first baseman. As a result, Voit has some major playing time concerns. He has an ADP right now just outside the top-200 and that’s too high for someone like Voit who needs an injury or a trade to find regular at-bats.

The trade doesn’t shake up the Twins’ expected Opening Day lineup very much overall. Urshela will likely slot into third base to fill Donaldson’s role and Sanchez will be on the higher end of a time split with Jeffers. However, we could have two Twins prospects wind up as big winners from the deal – and as soon as this year.

First off is Jose Miranda, a 23-year-old who tore up Double-A and Triple-A last year. Over 127 games across the two levels, he slashed .344/.401/.572 with 30 home runs, 94 RBI, and 97 runs. He showed fantastic plate discipline by striking out just 74 times. He’s played mostly third base and second base in the minors, but scouts seem to think he’s best suited for a corner infield spot in the majors, primarily third base. With Donaldson out of the way, Miranda has a much clearer path towards a role on the Twins.

Next is the team’s top prospect, shortstop Royce Lewis. The 22-year-old tore his ACL prior to last season and missed the entirety of the 2021 campaign. The last time we saw him in the minors was in 2019. That year, while playing in High-A and Double-A, he slashed .236/.290/.371 and compiled 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases, 49 RBI, and 73 runs over 127 games. He’ll need a good amount of time in the minors before he’s ready for the majors and he may still be another year away from his MLB debut. However, with Donaldson gone, the team can now shift their infielders more easily. Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, and Urshela are all very versatile position-wise and the latter two could easily move to utility roles if the team chooses to promote Lewis.

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