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Is Breece Hall or Braelon Allen the RB1 for the Jets? Should you draft Hall or Allen in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Dave's expert draft analysis and advice.
The New York Jets enter the 2025 season with a new head coach, general manager, and starting quarterback. The team signed veteran signal-caller Justin Fields this offseason to lead the offense. Fields has never been a particularly effective passer, so the Jets will likely deploy a run-first offense.
With that being the case, the New York running backs could carry significant fantasy value this year. Last year's RB1, Breece Hall, remains with the team. He is coming off a down season in 2024 and is looking to get back on track. However, second-year back Braelon Allen has been turning heads this summer and is reportedly in the mix for touches, too.
So, which running back should fantasy gamers target in their 2025 fantasy football drafts? Let's take a few minutes and discuss what managers should do with the Jets' running back duo.
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Breece Hall 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Hall's 2024 season was highly disappointing. Drafted as a unanimous top-3 running back last year, Hall was one of the biggest fantasy football busts of the 2024 season. He only ran for 876 yards and averaged a career-worst 4.19 yards per carry.
The most surprising part of Hall's season was that his receiving work declined, too. Hall only caught 57 receptions for 483 receiving yards in 2024. His receiving upside was a large part of why many fantasy gamers were bullish on his outlook, so the decline in passing production was a punch in the gut to his backers.
Things don't get much better when we look under the hood and analyze some of Hall's advanced metrics. Among 47 running backs with 90+ attempts in 2024, Hall ranked:
37th in PFF rushing grade
26th in PFF elusive rating
29th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced
36th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt
28th in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected
These are concerning scores. In fairness to Hall, New York's offensive line struggled at times last year, but the Jets did finish 13th in PFF's run blocking grade. So, we can't blame all of Hall's struggles on poor offensive line play.
Flipping the page to 2025, New York has an entirely new regime in place than the previous one that drafted Hall. Former Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn was hired as the team's new head coach. With Justin Fields at quarterback, it is expected that the Jets will rely heavily on their ground game to produce points. That is potentially good news for Hall, as we know he has home-run hitting ability.
WHAT A GAME BY @BREECEH!!#NYJvsNE on FOX pic.twitter.com/T0c7SOMsyH
— New York Jets (@nyjets) January 7, 2024
With Fields under center, Hall should also get the added boost in efficiency that usually comes from playing with a dual-threat quarterback. There have also been some rumors that the Jets want to involve Hall more in the passing game this year. This would also be good news for his fantasy outlook.
While we typically don't see rushing quarterbacks check the ball down at a high clip, Fields ranked fourth among all quarterbacks in Fantasy Points Data Suite's checkdown rate in 2024. That means Hall might have more value as a receiver than some initially thought after the team signed Fields.
The real question is whether the new Jets coaching staff will commit to Hall as the bell-cow back. If it does, and Hall approaches 250+ carries, he could be in line for a career year. If not, then gamers might be overdrafting him at his current FFPC ADP of 34.98 overall.
Braelon Allen 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Allen had a fairly uneventful rookie season in 2024. He only ran for 334 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and averaged just 3.63 yards per carry. Allen started making some noise last year when he began cutting into Hall's workload. It ultimately didn't lead to much fantasy production, but Allen did show that he could be an effective power back when called into action.
TD FOR THE ROOK, @BraelonAllen 🙌#NYJvsNE on CBS & @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/nKVv6yqW6r
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 27, 2024
We previously analyzed some of Hall's advanced data, so let's do the same for Allen. Among 47 backs with 90+ attempts, Allen finished:
14th in PFF rushing grade
43rd in PFF elusive rating
46th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced
40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt
42nd in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected
Aside from Allen's rushing grade, these are pretty horrific marks and will have you rushing toward the nearest sink to rinse your eyes. It's pretty hard to objectively look at Allen's 2024 and believe all the hype we are hearing from Jets camp this summer. But the drumbeat has been steady and is getting louder the closer we get to the season.
Glenn may opt to utilize a running-back-by-committee approach, as he had a front-row seat to the Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery tandem that has been highly effective in Detroit over the last two years. Perhaps Glenn envisions something similar with Hall and Allen.
That would make Allen a potential flex play as he would carry some standalone value as part of a committee. Standing at 6'1" and 235 lbs, Allen may even be the team's preferred goal-line back. He would also be in line for a larger role should Hall ever suffer an injury.
New York is not expected to be very good this year, but it's crystal clear that this offense is going to operate through its running backs. There could be plenty of volume for Allen to produce even as part of a committee. Consider Allen a priority late-round pick with potential for much more if a few things break his way.
Who Should You Draft in 2025 Fantasy Football?
This is a tough one because at the start of the offseason, Hall seemed like he was the preferred pick. With a new coaching staff in New York, he felt like a great bounce-back candidate.
However, the steady drumbeat we have heard this summer about Allen is getting too loud to ignore. It seems like he is going to force his way into some type of backfield split.
Braelon Allen gives the Jets the lead!
📺: #NYJvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/3qrxxqql9G— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
The Jets will be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league this year, but any backfield split for Hall will be highly problematic. Allen also may have the inside track for goal-line duties, and that would be another strike against Hall.
While the idea of Hall being more involved as a receiver has been thrown around, it may not be enough to offset any loss of rushing volume. If Hall is not the goal-line back, is not scoring touchdowns, and is not getting many high-value touches inside the 10, then Hall could be rendered relatively ineffective for fantasy football purposes.
Hall's career has been a bit disappointing so far. He has spent three years in the NFL and has yet to crack 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. There are more questions surrounding him than there should be at this stage of his career.
However, he still carries league-winning upside.
An electric 72 yard TD run for @BreeceH! ⚡️
📺: #NYJvsDEN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxPWA pic.twitter.com/7YO1UYkf66— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023
Whether or not he'll be put in a position to deliver for fantasy gamers in 2025 remains to be seen. While Allen has garnered consistent praise this offseason, he didn't fare that much better than Hall last year.
That makes Hall the preferred pick in drafts, but managers should consider drafting Allen as a way to hedge their bet. Gamers can view Hall as a highly volatile RB2 play for this year.
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