RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. His Horse for the course for daily fantasy golf is based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! We almost had another winner last week, as our Wyndham Championship Horse, Sungjae Im, fell just short at Sedgefield Country Club. Im was defeated by the PGA Tour's latest sensation - his fellow South Korean - Joohyung "Tom" Kim. At just 20 years old, Kim is the youngest player to win a PGA Tour event since Jordan Spieth won in 2013 at 19 years old.
The Thomas The Train enthusiast's victory was huge for many reasons, but one of the biggest perks is that Kim is now qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which get underway this week in Memphis, Tennessee.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship
After being a standard, run-of-the-mill Tour stop since the late '80s, the FedEx St. Jude event in Memphis has undergone a couple of iterations as of late, morphing into a WGC event at one point and now serving as the opening leg of the multi-million dollar FedEx Cup Playoffs for the first time.
As a result of this newfound status, all of the PGA Tour's finest will be teeing it up at TPC Southwind this week in hopes of continuing on the lucrative playoff journey that takes the Top-70 players in the FedEx Cup standings to next week's BMW Championship. The competition to earn one of those coveted Top-70 spots will be tough this week, as golfers will not only have to fight a field full of skilled contenders but a Southwind layout that's dotted with hazards.
As mentioned, this field is loaded. Although the PGA Tour does some funky stuff when it comes to incorporating event history - this event has now weirdly been slapped with The Northern Trust event's history - last year's real champion, Abe Ancer, will not be in the field to defend in Memphis. Even without "Honest Abe", this tournament isn't short of star power, with Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, recent Open winner Cam Smith, and Scottie Scheffler all ready to make a stretch run. It's gonna be a fun week, let's dive into some course history!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Southwind
Par 70 - 7,233 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Ron Prichard
Doglegs, bunkers, and water hazards...oh my! That's what awaits players at this former Memphis dairy farm. TPC Southwind winds through lakes, streams, and ponds with the danger of water always lurking...especially on the par-3 11th hole that is almost a 'baby brother' to the famous 17th island green at TPC Sawgrass. Many of Southwind's par-4's have dogleg tendencies, which forces the bombers to throttle down a bit, though we have seen long hitters like Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, and Brooks Koepka play very well here. Precise ball striking will be key, as the water hazards and almost 100 bunkers in play demand accuracy. Southwind is a long-ish Par 70 that's made all the more difficult by the winding layout.
Both these fairways and greens are tough to hit, so I will primarily be targeting ball strikers with sharp iron games. We have eight par-4s that are 450 yards or longer, so I'll lean towards guys that fair well on long par-4s.
With all the above duly noted, let's also keep in mind that this week's field will be comprised of the best players on the PGA Tour, so we will likely see a few players break away from the group with excellent scores. As a result, I'll give a look to birdies or better gained, while also giving a bump to those that can routinely avoid bogeys. On a side note as a Tennessee resident, I can tell you that Memphis in August is going to be unbelievably hot and humid. I'm not sure if that's truly actionable info, but you might want to target players that grew up playing in the Southeastern part of the U.S. and have some experience dealing with these types of conditions.
I always recommend checking out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent FedEx St. Jude Winners & Scores
- 2021: Abraham Ancer (-16)
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
- 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
- 2017: Daniel Berger (-10)
The Horse
Matt Fitzpatrick
- Event Scoring Average: 68.58
- Notable Event Finishes: T6 (2020), T4 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $9,800 FanDuel Price: $10,900
Like many in this week's St. Jude field, the newly-minted major champion hasn't teed it up since the Open Championship last month, but it would be a mistake to sleep on Matt Fitzpatrick this week in Memphis. The Englishman only has three TPC Southwind starts to his credit, but has taken kindly to Tennessee time, recording top-six results in two of those three outings.
Fitzy's skill set fits this layout well, as Southwind places emphasis on finding fairways. While much has, rightly, been made about his jump in distance off the tee, it is crucial to note that he hasn't sacrificed accuracy in the pursuit of those gains. The 27-year-old impressively grades out 20th in this week's field in Driving Distance over the last 36 rounds, but more importantly, when talking about the challenge ahead this week, he still ranks seventh in overall Good Drives Gained. That ability to put the ball in play is a huge key to success at Southwind.
We can feel secure about Fitzpatrick's ability off the tee and that's allowed him to truly shine, as now that he's addressed the distance issue, he has no holes in his game. The irons have been rock solid - 11th in GIRs Gained - while the Englishman's win at Brookline reinforced that he's great on difficult golf courses and has a knack for avoiding trouble - he ranks second in Bogeys Avoided among this week's entrants. That now-complete skill set should once again allow him to succeed in Memphis.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
- Event Scoring Average: 69.29
- Notable Event Finishes: T14 ('21), T15 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $10,800 FanDuel Price: $11,700
Strong arguments can be made for guys like Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, players that have had lots of success at TPC Southwind. However, Scottie Scheffler feels like something of a sleeping giant this week.
Scheffler's St. Jude history doesn't blow us away at first glance, but top-15 results in each of the last two years are enough to tell me that this is a layout that he's capable of winning on. After amassing a historical win tally to start the year, Scheffler now hasn't raised a trophy since the Masters in April. That "cold" streak can be attributed to an uncooperative putter, as he's lost an average of 0.7 strokes putting over his last five measured starts. The bright side is that Scheffler now returns to Bermuda greens at TPC Southwind, the surface that's historically been his best by a notable margin.
His recent tee-to-green play indicates that he can resume racking up victories if the flat stick is cooperative. Scheffler's ball-striking has been consistently elite throughout the year and has remained in form as of late. The Texan has gained an average of 7.6 strokes T2G over his last five and will grab another victory soon with that level of excellence.
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Billy Horschel
- Event Scoring Average: 69.30
- Notable Event Finishes: T17 (2021), T25 ('20), T9 ('19), T4 ('17), T8 ('15), T6 ('14)
- DraftKings Price: $8,200 FanDuel Price: $9,900
If you're ever wondering if Billy Horschel is a great golfer, just ask him and he'll tell you the answer. I'm not a huge fan of Billy's "proclamations", but I have to admit that he's actually backed up his public speaking with his play this year, and if his TPC Southwind track record is any indicator, he could once again find himself in the mix this week.
Horschel has been consistently terrific in Memphis throughout his career, recording five top-10 finishes across his 11 career starts at TPC Southwind. Full disclosure, the majority of those finishes came against very mediocre fields when the St. Jude tournament was just a "regular" Tour stop. That said, he has also acquitted himself well against elite competition over the last few years, logging a top-10 and two additional top-25s since the St. Jude became a WGC event in 2019.
The Florida Gator has always been a tough golfer to put a finger on statistically, as he's often putter-dependant and streaky. His big win at the Memorial earlier this year came on the heels of a missed cut at the Colonial the previous week, which perfectly encapsulates Horschel's game. So while he doesn't pop from a statistical standpoint over recent starts, he has at least been solid, gaining a combined 10.6 strokes total in his last two outings. There's certainly a level of volatility that comes with rostering Horschel, but the form is good enough - in concert with the sterling course history and his reasonable DK price tag - to put him in serious DFS consideration on this slate.
Chez Reavie
- Event Scoring Average: 68.81
- Notable Event Finishes: T6 ('20), T27 ('19), T6 ('18), T4 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $7,100 FanDuel Price: $8,700
Chez Reavie is a very specific type of player and not one we can safely deploy on just any golf course. Reavie currently ranks just 201st on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance and that lack of length makes rostering the veteran impossible on some of the schedule's layouts.
The flip side of that coin is that we can utilize Reavie on a small subset of courses throughout the year thanks to his deadly accurate ways off the tee. He comes into this event standing fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy Percentage for the season. That ability has served him very well in previous appearances on this TPC Southwind track that demands precision off the tee. Reavie has notched top-six finishes in a remarkable three of his last four trips to Memphis.
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