Free XFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 6

March 25, 2023

Free XFL betting picks, odds, predictions for Week 6 (2023). Our best bets and top XFL picks for moneylines, over/unders and more.

The 2023 XFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for XFL action, so join me here and let's get Xtreme. Be sure to also read all our other weekly XFL fantasy football articles.

Also, don't fret...I'll be back, right here, to talk about gambling on the USFL in April; and if we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board. Speaking of which: the USFL season kicks off on April 15th, so look out for my USFL Week 1 & Futures article in early April.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played – and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that could've only been originally brought to us by the minds behind the WWE. XFL 2023: let's rock. A few stumbles in Week 5, but the top teams are coming out in full force this week with a MNF capper of Houston at D.C., so make sure you have enough screens available for this, the NCAA Tournament, and possibly your Fantasy Baseball drafts.

Week 6 Power Rankings

1. D.C. Defenders
2. St. Louis Battlehawks
3. Seattle Sea Dragons
4. Houston Roughnecks
5. Arlington Renegades
6. Las Vegas Vipers
7. San Antonio Brahmas
8. Orlando Guardians

Week 6 MVP Ladder

1. Abram Smith (RB, Defenders)
2. Ben DiNucci (QB, Sea Dragons)
3. Brian Hill (RB, Battlehawks)
4. A.J. McCarron (QB, Battlehawks)
5. Jahcour Pearson (WR, Sea Dragons)
6. Jordan Ta'amu (QB, Defenders)
7. Jontre Kirklin* (WR, Roughnecks)
8. Max Borghi (RB, Roughnecks)
9. Hakeem Butler (WR, Battlehawks)
10. Josh Gordon (WR, Sea Dragons)

Seattle Sea Dragons at Orlando Guardians (Saturday, March 25th, 1 PM)

Best Bet: Sea Dragons (-8.5)

The Sea Dragons just dethroned the once-undefeated Houston Roughnecks at home by a 21-14 deficit. Seattle has traded in some of their offensive attack for strong defensive play-making in terms of their identity, with Ben DiNucci still providing for several turnovers per week while actually leading the team in rushing in their week 5 upset. The Guardians on the other hand just put up 32 points in a three-point loss to a Vegas Vipers squad that looks way more dangerous with Luis Perez firmly at the helm, and Quinten Dormady made all of the difference in week 5 over Paxton Lynch (who provided too little advancement too late) once he has gotten past this pesky playbook-selling business.

The Guardians are looking more confident, and what better letdown spot for Seattle than an away game against a winless team a week after your biggest win of the season? It is not to be. Seattle just beat their last two (better) opponents by 16 points combined, and Orlando still lost the battle of the winless last week by three even with their increased offensive output. I feel like folks will get tricked into the over this week with Orlando's 32-spot in week 5 and Seattle's reputation for running and shooting--but I think Seattle has given us the exact opposite indication on both sides of the ball since they've begun their winning ways. I would take Seattle up to 9.5.

St. Louis Battlehawks at Vegas Vipers (Saturday, March 25th, 7 PM)

Best Bet: Battlehawks (-3)

My power rankings might cause a bit of unrest this week, but my argument for the Battlehawks as the #2 team in the XFL: their only two losses come to the best team in the league in the D.C. Defenders, I'm not sure what we are getting from week to week with the Seattle Sea Dragons, and the Houston Roughnecks were just thoroughly beaten by Seattle after only facing the bottom-tier of the XFL through the first four weeks. The Battlehawks also happen to have a solid defense, the third or second-best QB in the league in A.J. McCarron, one of the top-two performing RBs in the league in Brian Hill, and one of the top-two performing WRs in the league in Hakeem Butler.

On the other hand, the Vipers are a MUCH more dangerous team since Luis Perez took the starting reigns over Brett Hundley. However, even where they have made massive improvements offensively, they still only beat the also-more potent Orlando Guardians by three in a 35-32 shoot-out last week. They aren't a well-rounded or well-coached team, but they have offensive capabilities, so this game could remain interesting. I don't think Vegas can keep the overall game of the Battlehawks in check, and if they only beat Orlando by three, they are definitely losing to St. Louis at this point by three or more. The O/U in this game is 44.5, and if I had to trust my senses and observations, I would peg this game to fall under, at an approximate score of 24-18--but I think St. Louis has more room for upward mobility, and this game could fall in the 28-18 range, so you're playing with bona fide fire at 44.5.

San Antonio Brahmas at Arlington Renegades (Sunday, March 26th, 3 PM)

Best Bet: Renegades (-3)

Just when you think that San Antonio has something cooking with Reid Sinnett at QB--he gets injured, and the Rock is forced again to throw Jack Coan into the storm. And now, I'm even seeing that Jack Coan is considered doubtful for Sunday's game, as is Kalen Ballage. Maybe a drastic change in personnel actually ends up working in one of these teams' favor since those starting options haven't exactly been the most efficient. The Arlington Renegades are, against all odds and optics, sitting pretty at 3-2, and very well may be the decisive second-best team in the South Division (again, how?!). On the other end, the San Antonio Brahmas seemed to have a decent formula for success in the pass-heavy XFL with their conservative approach and solid defense, but they sit idly at 1-4.

If the Brahmas end up being down to their third-string QB, the recently acquired (via trade with the Houston  Roughnecks) Kurt Benkert with five years of NFL experience, maybe that is a great thing for the ceiling of their offense, if Hines Ward designed an offensive scheme that was conducive to such attributes, but maybe the injury-plagued roster forces him to get creative. However, I think the inconvenient timing and the reasonably-stout Arlington defense prevent this from being a heroic week for Benkert, and in this situation, you tolerate the turnover propensity of Kyle Sloter for his ceiling on any given alternative football Sunday and opt for the team that keeps finding a way to win even though they would likely be the worst team in the North.

While they might not have had a chance to shine yet, I still think that the Renegades have the better offensive weapons, with the main connection of Sloter to Sal Cannella still providing solid confidence. There's a thinner margin on this one – I think Arlington is the better team even with the mild home-field advantage, so I would only take them laying up to four points.

Houston Roughnecks at D.C. Defenders (Monday, March 27th, 7 PM)

Best Bet: Defenders (-2.5)

Jontre Kirklin is out for the season, but he will remain an honorary member of the MVP ladder for this week. However, that means one of Brandon Silvers' top two options on offense is now out of the picture, and while per xflnewshub.com the Roughnecks have already acquired WRs Tavonn Salter (The Spring League, CFL) and Jacquarii Roberson (UDFA 2022, NFL time with four teams) while also trading QB Kurt Benkert to San Antonio for LB Drew Lewis, that is a significant source of play-making ability suddenly unavailable.

Meanwhile, the D.C. Defenders remain the lone undefeated XFL team with a win over Seattle, two wins over Vegas, and two decisive victories over the St. Louis Battlehawks. Importantly – this D.C. home crowd provides a true advantage, and this crowd for a Monday Night Football game for the best teams from each division in the league should be hostile and rowdy, and the Roughnecks are coming off of a rough wake-up call that they apparently aren't invisible after beating exclusively mediocre teams over the first four weeks of the season.

The increasingly reliable passing and potent ground attack by Jordan Ta'amu has propelled him into the top-ten MVP ladder, D'Eriq King (like Cold McDonald) has continued to provide a great occasional change of pace, and Abram Smith's efficiency has been climbing in past weeks, making the Defenders rushing game the most dangerous single offensive advantage in the league – right with the Sea Dragons' passing game.

At this point, D.C. has given us every reason to trust them against a strong offense, especially at home, while Houston has thrown up several red flags of fraudulence over the last few weeks, and utility man Max Borghi might have less of a place this week as the Roughnecks figure out how their offense works without their star wide-out. The O/U sits at an even 42, and I think that this game ends somewhere in the 21-17 to 28-24 range, so I think I roll with the Defenders up to 4-4.5 points.

Wager of the Week

Brahmas at Renegades Under 33

The starting quarterbacks in this game will be Kyle Sloter and Jack Coan. As of now, I could end my analysis right here. I was very high on Kyle Sloter to start the season, but the Renegades' offensive line mixed with his propensity for risk-taking and very poor decision-making has manifested in ugly results; and while I was rooting for Jack Coan over the first two weeks, he has been purely terrible since then, unable to do any damage with even the passes that he's completing on a Brahmas team disturbingly lacking in playmakers.

This is a game between two teams whose defenses are the best things that they have to offer, whose last game in week 5 ended 12-10, and whose last two weeks before week 5 only combined for a total of 40 points. Even if this game ended 18-14 (under), I'd be pretty shocked. The only thing that could throw this off is soft defense from San Antonio and a big "Sloter Sunday" for Bob Stoops and Arlington, but based on last week, I'd expect the defenses to be even more tuned in this week.

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