RADIO
The fall swing on the PGA tour is synonymous with the sounds of shoulder pads colliding together, 80,000 fans cheering and eternal disappointment for Jets fans. The new FedEx Cup structure has the majority of the tour's superstars sitting on their couch watching the NFL or teeing it up at Wentworth for the BMW Championship on the DPWT. As a content creator during this time of the year it is hard not feel like we are part of the cast of "Daddy's Home 3" where the NFL shows up on its burly Harley Davidson and removes its helmet and leather jacket to reveal a muscular monster the size of Viktor Hovland's bank account that shows little regard for the hard-working PGA family that we are taking care of all year round.
However, if you are reading this, you are part of the blue-collar brigade that continues to march to our own tune despite the Ohio State marching band reenacting a Michael Jackson moonwalk or some other ridiculously impressive choreography. This week is the Fortinet Championship and Max Homa will look to add his name to the short list of golfers who have three-peated at a course that evidently suits their eye. KH Lee had that opportunity earlier this year at the AT&T Byron Nelson, but decided he would let somebody else win that tournament for once.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($20)
We are going to try something a little different for the next while and see how it goes, reducing the amount we bet on winners and siphoning those funds into Top 5 bets on the same golfers. We had a ridiculously variance infused year so far and not getting rewarded for any of our guys repeatedly finishing second or third is hopefully a thing of the past.
The idea here is to use the T5 market to keep our bankroll a little more flush with cash along the way. Last season we hit only two outrights in Breaking $100, losing -$239 betting an average of $14 on winners. I did some quick retroactive calculations based off of all the outrights we placed last year, dividing those odds by 5 and we would have made $154 betting top-5s last season, which would have really helped our pockets. We averaged a golfer in the top 5 in 51% of the 37 events we bet on, with 19 top-5 finishes from a total of 157 bets.
Ideally, we want double our exposure we have in the outright market with our T5 bets, so that we can make a tiny bit of profit in this section of the article when our card succeeds but does not win. We are rolling out the "Seven Wonders" of the Fortinet this week starting at 35-1.
Eric Cole - The Statue of Zeus
Cole gets this ancient wonder associated with him because his Sunday performances are that of a statue. In his last six starts he has lost strokes on Sunday five times. The time he gained, was because he lost 5 strokes on Saturday. He has a full-blown case of the Sunday Scaries but hopefully with a bit of time off he will return with a revitalized approach to his weekend wonders. This sounds like we are fading him, but don't fear, the wrath of Zues is near.
Cole ranks 4th in my model because of his putting and stellar iron play, which rank 5th and 3rd in this field respectively. When he is feeling it, Cole channels his inner Zeus and can put together a lightning round, having gained over four strokes in 12 of his 81 rounds this year. Five of those rounds were 5+ strokes gained with an almighty +7.25 strokes at the RBC Canadian Open that vaulted him into T6.
Somebody HAS to win this tournament and if the handful of stars that are teeing it up, don't play all that well, it's wide open this week. If Cole can have that statuesque round before Sunday, he has the scoring power to go out ahead of the leaders on Sunday to shoot a ridiculously low round with the pressure of the lead not on his shoulders. If he does find himself in the mix on Sunday, then, like we said, somebody has win this thing - why not Zeus?
Andrew Putnam - The Temple of Artemis
Andrew Putnam has stumbled upon divine iron form that he could keep in a temple of the golfing gods. He is 2nd in the field on approach over the last 24 rounds and has gained the 4th most strokes on approach from 100-150, where roughly 33% of approach shots will come from this week. The Temple master tends to thrive on this shorter, wedge intensive venues as his length off the tee holds him back on the majority of the bigger tracks on tour.
With iron play that showed some potential to end the season, Putnam will look to lean on his putter that sits six spots behind his recent iron play, ranking 8th in this field. The combination of iron play and putting that he could expose this course with is why we like him at 40-1. He had a T5 at Muirfield Village back in June and has missed only two cuts since March. We may land up ending every writeup with, "Somebody has to win this, why not the guy who is capable of going nuclear with his irons or putter or both?"
Chez Reavie - The Mausoleum at Halicarnassus
Chez Reavie gets the Mausoleum because his iron play has been so unconscious it could almost be put into a tomb. He leads the field in strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds and ranks first and fifth this season from 150-200 and 200+. Chez has sculpted his iron play to the tune of +1.25 strokes per round since the RBC Canadian Open.
A T4 finish at the Travelers was the closest he came to winning last season and now heads to the Fortinet where he has finishes of MC, T28, T3, T33, T33 and T13 in his last half dozen appearances. If Reavie can lean on a putter that started scorching the earth from the Valero through the Travelers (34 rounds), his iron play on a course he has been very comfortable on in the past, he could win this thing.
Nick Hardy - The Colossus of Rhodes.
The Colossus of Rhodes depicting the sun-God Helios is a perfect comparison for Nick Hardy, who has been scorching putting greens that have got in his way the last 24 rounds. He leads the field in putting L24 as he has gained +0.9 strokes per round over the last 31 rounds he played. The prior 32 rounds this year, he lost -0.5 strokes to the field to begin the year. A massive turn around in that area of his game.
His iron play was averaging well over a stroke per round once he returned to the tour from the Korn Ferry Tour, but it seems that in pursuit of a purring putter, he neglected some of his ball striking. Hopefully with some time off since the FedEx St. Jude, he can return from a break with both a putter and iron play that is worthy of a Colossal individual victory to add to his Zurich classic title he conquered last season.
Sam Ryder - The Hanging Gardens of Babylon
"They were described as a remarkable feat of engineering with an ascending series of tiered gardens containing a wide variety of trees, shrubs, and vines" which is exactly what Sam Ryder's golf game is comprised of. His game is very much comprised of random tiers of excellence, leading the tour in putting for roughly the first third of the season, he now has moved on to striking his irons with the best on tour, averaging +1.36 strokes on approach over his last dozen rounds to conclude the season.
He has also brought tiered-tears to my eyes at the Valero Texas Open, where we had him to win, finishing 3rd to Corey Conners. We mentioned that Ryder lead the tour in putting, which included a stretch where he gained strokes putting in 25 CONSECUTIVE ROUNDS. With iron play peaking to end the season, if Ryder has watered a few of his putting shrubs in his time off, we could get a golfer who is capable of leading the field in both approach and putting on route to hanging a Fortinet trophy in his house.
Peter Kuest - The Lighthouse of Alexandria
At 6 foot 1 and rather lanky looking, Kuest could be the PGA Pro equivalent of a lighthouse. Just like a lighthouse spins its bright beams of light in a 360 degree range, so does Kuest's game come and go. He finished T5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T14 at the Byron Nelson and T17 at the John Deere Classic but ended the season with two finishes of T50 and T45 which are not up to his lofty standards.
His game is based off of power and sporadic iron play, with his putter seemingly the most reliable area of his game once he gets off the tee. At 70-1 we could not pass up his upside, with hopes of him improving on his T4 at the Rocket Mortgage this week.
Nate Lashley - The Great Pyramid of Giza
Nate the Great Pyramid of Giza is the final golfer on our card at 90-1. His consistent iron play seemed to crumble down the stretch of last season, losing on approach in three of his last four starts. The Great Nate ranks inside the top 30 in good drives gained and approach, while his season long stats for bridie or better percentage, bogey avoidance and par five scoring all rank 12th or better.
A recharged Lashley may just be the golden ticket to Giza as his price is ultra-affordable at 90-1 and if that ball striking affords him enough birdie looks to get that putter cooking, we could be in for a fun week in Napa! (Of course, there is a golf course next them now...)
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($75)
Last Article's Placements: +$13.80
- "Rory McIlroy T5 +138 at BetMGM (ties paid in full!!!): $10 if he is in the mix on Sunday and doesn't win, at least this will cover our outright investment!" - maybe we were onto something to end the season?
This Week's Placements
- Cameron Davis T20 +138: $10
- Doug Ghim T20 +240: $10
- Davis Thompson T20 +300: $10
- Sam Ryder T20 +310: $10
- Chez Reavie T40 +100: $25
- Akshay Bhatia T40 +110: $10
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Sahith Theegala $5 +700 FRL Top 5 (BetMGM ties paid in full!!!)
A local Cali kid who will be looking to rack up his first PGA Tour win on greens that he should be very comfortable on. If we miss his win, hopefully he sneaks into the top 5 in round 1. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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