Florio's Bullpen Report: Speculative Saves, Changing Bullpens, Elite Ratios (Week 6)

May 1, 2024

Michael F. Florio reviews bullpens that have changed, closers to add off the waiver wire, and relief pitchers who are useful for fantasy baseball heading into Week 6 of the 2024 season.

Every week, I write about the many different ways that bullpens around the leagues have changed. Typically, each week there are a couple of bullpens that have had to put a closer on the IL or had to shake things up because of poor performances. 

And then there are weeks like this one, where it looks like things are stabilizing for a number of bullpens around the league. Do not worry, the closer carousel only stays stagnant for a short period before chaos ensues. 

There are still some bullpens that are confusing, though, and we will try to make sense of those. This is also a great week to try and find some diamonds in the rough as people often just focus on closers for fantasy baseball purposes. 

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

The Cubs removed Adbert Alzolay as the closer and while they talked about a committee approach, Hector Neris has clearly been their guy. He has picked up three of the Cubs' four saves in the past week, with the other going to Yency Almonte. Neris has four saves on the season and while his ratios leave a lot to be desired, you will gladly deal with them if he continues to get save chances. Almonte is a deep-league sleeper here. My favorite, though, is Mark Leiter Jr., who has pitched to a 0.69 ERA, 3.05 xERA, and 1.23 WHIP all while striking out a batter per inning. 

Héctor Neris, Wicked 85mph Splitter. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/IBDefMuC0R

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2024

When writing last week's article, the Rays had just placed Pete Fairbanks on the IL, leaving the fantasy baseball community to speculate as to who may close out games for Tampa. My top suggestion was Jason Adam, who has picked up a save in the past week. Garrett Cleavinger also picked up a save in that span. Adam may not be racking up the strikeouts like he was a year ago, but his 1.29 ERA and 0.64 WHIP will certainly play just fine.

The strong ratios, paired with the fact that he led them in saves both times Fairbanks missed time last year, makes Adam the top option and a must-start one in fantasy baseball. Cleavinger is still worth picking up for save-needy teams in roto formats. 

Jason Adam Manages Save Monday https://t.co/pV7Flnpx3Z

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) April 30, 2024

Last week, I wrote about how the Brewers had moved on from Abner Uribe as their closer for the time being. Well, in the last week, they only further cemented that. Milwaukee picked up two saves this last week, with one going to Joel Payamps and the other to Trevor Megill. It appears those two are in a committee now, but Payamps remains the top option. He now leads the team with four saves this season while pitching to a 3.37 ERA, 3.07 xERA, and 0.75 WHIP. He should be started in all formats. Megill will provide strong ratios as well as be in the mix for saves here. He is a strong add in roto formats and I would look to spend between 5-8 percent of my FAAB on him.

If you picked up Griffin Jax from the Twins, it's been a fun ride. Even with him splitting save opportunities, he has picked up four already while providing strong ratios and strikeouts. But it is all likely coming to an end as Jhoan Duran has been activated to return on Tuesday. Duran said he knew he was ready when he saw the radar gun hit almost 102 mph during his rehab outing. Sounds like a pitcher ready to be thrown right back into the fire. Duran is a must-roster reliever and one I would roll the dice and plug into my starting lineup right away, although it is possible they ease him into things his first couple of outings. Those who have been riding with Jax can continue to hold him until we see him no longer involved in the save picture here. At the worst, he provides ratios and strikeouts. 

The Diamondbacks are another team set to get their regular closer back soon, but Paul Sewald did have to ramp down his rehab work as he deals with soreness. It is not a long-term concern, but it does buy Kevin Ginkel some more time as the D-backs closer. He is worth holding onto until we not only see Sewald return but supplant Ginkel as the closer in Arizona. 

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball 

Craig Kimbrel blew two saves in three days and is now dealing with upper-back tightness. With him unavailable, we saw the Orioles turn to Yennier Cano to get the heart of the Yankees order, which then left Danny Coulombe to pick up the save in the ninth. Kimbrel is obviously still worth rostering, and once healthy, he returns to must-start status. But if he continues to struggle, we could see a change occur. Diaz is the pitcher I would take the shot on because he arguably is the best arm in this bullpen. He provides elite ratios and strikeouts and could see himself getting some save chances. Coulombe is a pickup for those in need of saves in deeper leagues. This is a situation to monitor very closely in the coming days and weeks. 

I have been writing about the Rockies pretty much weekly in this article, and up until last week, they had just one save as a team. That changed as we saw Justin Lawrence pick up two saves in the last week. Lawrence, who at times gets used in high-leverage situations rather than saved for the ninth, remains the only viable fantasy arm in this bullpen. Just understand the risk with him and any Rockies reliever is they could completely blow up your ratios on a team that may not pick up many saves. The juice is only worth the squeeze if you are desperate for saves. 

The Phillies bullpen has started to stabilize after a crazy first couple of weeks. Jose Alvarado has picked up five of the Phillies' nine saves this season. He is the only reliever with more than one save in that bullpen. Alvarado picked up their only save in the last week as well. On the year, he has pitched to a 5.06 ERA, 2.56 xERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 28 percent strikeout rate. We know what Alvarado is and that he will not be the best source of WHIP. But, his peripherals are much better than the ERA and they have consistently been turning to him. It is worth trying to acquire him if the manager with him is still worried. 

Your #Phillies pitchers NL lead:
Ranger Suarez- 1st ERA, 1st (T) Wins, 1st (T) QS, 7th (T) K, 1st WHIP, 1st WAR
Zack Wheeler- 7th ERA, 1st (T) QS, 3rd K
Aaron Nola- 3rd (T) Wins, 5th WHIP, 6th (T) QS, 14th WHIP, 15th (T) K
Jose Alvarado- 6th (T) Saves
Spencer Turnbull- 11th WAR pic.twitter.com/N1Zcu7RAMI

— PHILLIES BELL (@PhilliesBell) April 23, 2024

The White Sox bullpen is frustrating. They have a top option who is absolutely elite in Michael Kopech. He is a must-start option. So why is it frustrating? At times, they use Kopech in high-leverage situations. We saw that earlier this week when Jordan Leasure picked up the save. Despite that, Kopech remains the only arm in this bullpen worth rostering and starting for the time being. 

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios

I will continue to write about the Mets bullpen here until they are picked up in more fantasy leagues. Currently, the Mets have three of the top five relievers in strikeout rate. Adam Ottavino has struck out 49 percent of batters faced to go along with a 1.86 ERA and 0.52 WHIP. Reed Garrett has struck out 47 percent of batters with a 0.61 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Those are elite numbers from two relievers. The last reliever in the top five for New York is Edwin Diaz, who is universally rostered. But he did blow a save on Monday night. If anything happens to him, the electric Mets duo of Garrett and Ottavino would split closer duties. 

8 games pitched. 5 Ws.

All Reed Garrett does is win. pic.twitter.com/gItmVMQVp6

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) April 29, 2024

Yimi Garcia has pitched to a 0.68 ERA, and 0.53 WHIP with a .091 batting average against all while striking out 34 percent of the batters he has faced this season. Not only does he provide elite strikeouts and ratios, but we already know that if Jordan Romano was to miss more time, Garcia would be in the mix for saves. He is a great reliever to roster if you are looking to stabilize your ratios. 

This is not the first (nor probably the last) time I will write about Fernando Cruz this season. Not only has he struck out 49 percent of the batters he has faced, but he has a 1.59 ERA and 0.71 WHIP to go along with that. Batters are hitting just .079 against him through the first month of the season. He is also next in line for saves in Cincinnati. He is one of my favorite non-closer relievers to roster. 

A.J. Minter has pitched to a 2.63 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with a 31 percent strikeout ratio. Minter has long been a good source of elite strikeouts and ratios in the Braves bullpen. There is a lot to like with Minter, except he is not given many chances to close out games. 

Gabe Speier has a 0.66 WHIP, the seventh best amongst relievers entering play on Tuesday. He also has a 0.84 ERA and a whopping 38 percent strikeout rate. He may pitch in a Seattle pen that has two closing options, so I would not count on him getting many chances there, but if you are just looking to stabilize your ratios for a couple of weeks, Speier can help.

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio. 

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