RADIO
For the second time in the 2023 season, the PGA Tour is following one of its crown jewels with an “Elevated” event directly afterward. A $20,000,000 prize pool has drawn the best field Hartford has seen since the post-COVID all-star showing in 2020, but this scheduling spot tends to bring a lot more questions than answers for golf bettors this week.
How many players are feeling the wear and tear of four grueling days at a U.S. Open? How many would even be here if not for the threat of a seven-figure fine? And how will one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour rotation stand up against a field with this much firepower?
If 2020 is anything to go off of, we’re in for one of the more unpredictable tournaments of the year so far. This is an event that has produced duels between Dustin Johnson and Brendon Todd, Bubba Watson and Corey Pavin, as well as Harris English and Kramer Hickok in recent years. So unlike the constrictive, top-heavy leaderboards we’ve become accustomed to in these elevated events, TPC River Highlands is a venue where many different skill sets can find success. Could this be a shining beacon for the middle and lower class on the PGA Tour? Or will we once again be treated to a duel between two of the game’s marquee names? Either way, I think we’re in for a compelling week on the PGA Tour. Let’s dive into the course.
The Golf Course
TPC River Highlands - 6,841-yard Par 70
One of Pete Dye’s first ventures in the Northeast, the 6800 yards at TPC River Highlands give you everything you would expect from one of the fathers of penal golf design. Treelined, and positional, but not nearly as tight as your traditional short courses in the south (Harbour Town, Colonial, etc), River Highlands is a golf course that presents a multitude of options off the tee. Historical Driving Accuracy at River Highlands sits at nearly 70%, if you do start to miss wildly off the tee, this course will have you staring down the barrel of a sizable penalty.
River Highlands ranked inside the top 5 in both Missed Fairway Penalty and Penalty Rate (percentage of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke - 8.1%). We've seen a fair share of long drivers have success here (Bubba Watson, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson), but overall, the more consistent players year-in, year-out have followed a more conservative game plan with their tee shot (Brian Harman, Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Kevin Kisner, etc).
Much like its fellow positional courses in the Southeast, I’m not entirely worried about general, year-long driving stats like SG: OTT, or Total Driving this week. My focus is almost entirely on players that have histories of success driving the ball at shorter, more tactical venues. If a player has routinely driven the ball well at corollary tracks like Harbour Town, Innisbrook, Colonial, or Sedgefield, I have full faith that they can tackle the challenges ahead this week in Cromwell.
Moving onto the second shot, and as you'd expect from a course playing under 6900 yards, approaches at the Travelers are greatly skewed towards short and mid-irons. Over two-thirds of approach shots have come from 175 yards and in, and nearly half of historical approach shots have come from 125-175 yards.
The 4th and the 10th are the only two Par 4’s on property that measure over 445 yards, and with only two Par 5’s, long-iron play isn’t nearly as impactful to success as we’ve seen at many of the Tour’s other marquee events this season.
As far as the modeling goes, I’m using two different approach models this week: one is a long-term proximity model drawing splits from the last calendar year (special emphasis from 125-175), and one is similar to models I’ve used in recent approach-intensive birdie parties: which mixes SG: APP, SG: Putting, Birdie Chances Created, and Birdies or Better % over the last 3 months. I like this second approach a little more on the
Whether you want to continue riding the hot hand, or draw splits from longer-term data sets, it will be imperative to identify the best iron players in the field this week. Top five finishers here have gained nearly a stroke per round on approach historically, so I’d consider iron play one of the two non-negotiables this week when building a potential winning profile.
In direct opposition to your typical wedge fest, the Travelers does present a few challenges to players around the greens. It was actually the second most difficult course on Tour last year to get the ball up and down from the fairway, and fifth in difficulty out of the rough. The bunkers are right around Tour average in Strokes Gained difficulty, and players should be expected to hit 3/4s of their greens here if they expect to contend, but some short-game acumen will be required if you end up leaving your ball in some of River Highlands’ more treacherous greenside surrounds. Around the green play is far from the necessity I treated it as last week in L.A., but it’s certainly not the throwaway stat it is at some other lower-profile venues.
And finally, the greens at River Highlands will give us our first taste of East Coast poa. Traditionally blended with bentgrass, this strain of poa isn’t nearly as patchy or inconsistent as its West Coast counterpart. I honestly have no issue weighing recent Bentgrass splits from other Northeastern courses like Oakdale and Oak Hill, but if you want to look back at historical markers on similar surfaces: Detroit Golf Club, Bethpage Black, and Brookline are the three recent events that feature the same bentgrass/poa blend.
Although putting tends to be the most volatile statistic on a week-in, week-out basis, identifying players that at least have the upside to gain multiple strokes on these greens will be incredibly important when building your outright card. Only three players in the last five years have managed to finish inside the Top 10 at River Highlands while putting worse than the field average. As such, I’d advise some caution before going too heavy on guys that consistently hemorrhage strokes on the greens.
Scouting the Routing
For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be imperative to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play.
The good news is at TPC River Highlands, there aren’t a ton of landmines to worry about over the course of a player's round. Only four holes on the entire property have historically played a tenth of a stroke of par or harder, and twelve holes on-site feature birdie or better rates over 15%.
In particular, the stretch from 11 to 15 will present players with five holes with an average birdie rate of 26.4%, including the two easiest holes on the course (13 and 15). Don’t be surprised if a few players race out of the blocks Thursday morning with a back-nine starting spot. As they reach hole 16, however, they’ll have to contend with four of the five most difficult holes on the course (16, 17, 4, 5) before they reach another clear birdie chance at 6. I’d advise a fair amount of caution when buying high on these fast starters past hole 15, as statistics suggest they’re more likely to stumble backward than forward on the leaderboard within the next eight holes.
For players starting on the front side, the stretch from 11-15 will provide a bit of an ace in the hole for guys that happen to fall behind early. Holes 1-10 play right around even par on average, so don’t be scared off by a player that fails to get out of blocks quickly on the front side. The average opening-round score of the last four Travelers’ Champions sits right at 67.25, so anyone able to make a few birdies coming home after treading water on the front-nine remains incredibly live.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units
Total Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
The Betting Card
Tom Kim (50-1)
Just when we were all ready to mail in 2023 as a bit of a lost season for the Korean star, he goes out and gains 7.5 shots on APP at a 7400-yard LACC. His 8th place finish at last week’s U.S. Open is arguably his most impressive individual result to date given his current skill set. Now, Tom has the opportunity to carry that momentum forward into a dream spot at River Highlands.
Kim still rates out as one of the more reliable drivers of the ball on these positional tracks (11th in Fairways gained over his last 50 rounds, 14th in Total Driving on Courses under 7200 yds), and he’s proven he can carry over ball-striking splits from week to week when something clicks in his swing: just look at the seven-start stretch late last summer where he gained nearly 5 shots per tournament with his irons.
If the swing is really back, a win at River Highlands would pair very nicely with his two other short-course triumphs in Greensboro and Vegas. Hit fairways, fire at flags, and pile on birdies - this is a formula the 20-year-old is already very well acquainted with in his short time on Tour. There’s no reason he can’t repeat the trick again around this track.
Russell Henley (50-1)
Much like Tom, Henley’s profile of driving accuracy and stellar iron play has made him a consistent threat at these shorter, positional tracks throughout his career. Look up and down the corollary courses, and it's difficult to find a related venue that Henley has not experienced previous success on:
- 6th and a 9th at Harbour Town
- 16th at Colonial earlier this year
- 5th, 7th, and 9th in his last three starts at Sedgefield
- 2 consecutive T20s at Sawgrass in ’22/’23
- Win and a runner-up at the Sony Open
- Win at Mayakoba last fall
- 6th, 11th, 19th, 32nd in five starts at River Highlands
Henley should therefore be thrilled that his game is peaking in time for this year's Travelers’ iteration with a $20,000,000 prize pool on the line. As he comes into the week as one of the hottest iron players on the planet: gaining an average of 4.8 shots on approach over his last five starts.
We’ve seen a ton of recent winners at Travelers show real signs in the direct lead-in:
- Chez Reavie was coming in off of his best ball-striking week in six months and a 3rd place finish at Pebble Beach
- DJ had just come off gaining 8.5 shots ball-striking at Harbour Town the week before his 2020 win
- Harris English finished 3rd at Torrey Pines heading into the 2021 Travelers (logging his best approach week in over 18 months)
- Xander was one of the hottest iron players on the planet in the five starts leading up to his win last year (+4.6 SG/Tournament).
If that trend continues, I believe Tom and Russ are two of the most likely beneficiaries. Love this spot for each of them, and judging by the line movement we’ve seen since the start of the week, we’re not the only ones heavily invested in the Tank Engine and Russ Bus on the back end of this cross-country expedition.
Hideki Matsuyama (55-1)
The first two names on the card fit more or less like a glove around this place, but as we drift past 50/1, I’m going to start taking shots at some marquee names with clear win equity that I think have drifted a bit too far compared to the names around them.
Hideki is the priciest of the bunch at 55-1, but he also has the most substantial statistical case. Similar to Henley/Kim, Matsuyama comes into the Travelers on a torrid ball-striking run. He’s gained an average of 4.75 shots on Approach over his last 5 starts - capped off by a tournament-best +8.6 last week at LACC.
The obvious caveat with Deki is if the putter can keep up with the pace necessary to get to an (-18/-20) winning score, but a win at the 2022 Sony Open, along with Top 10’s at key comp courses in Sawgrass, Colonial, and Sedgefield dispel a lot of the worries to be had about his ability at this type of venue.
It may not be the optimal fit that Muirfield Village was for the Japanese ace, but at 55-1, books are pricing Matsuyama as if he’s still in his end-of-year slump back in 2022 - not a former World No. 2 in the midst of the best ball-striking run he’s had in 12+ months. I’m more than happy to take a shot this far down the board, as an in-form Hideki is about as menacing as anyone within 30 points of him on the odds board.
Max Homa (66-1)
Now we begin to really get into some speculation with Max Homa and Justin Thomas making the cut at 66 and 75-1 respectively. Let’s start with Max, who we pretty vehemently faded at his 25-1 price tag at LACC. And although a Friday 76 proved us right in that regard, Max was far from the dead fish in the ball-striking department we saw in the 2 events leading up to the Open.
In fact, Homa really impressed me with the driver all week at LACC, and outside of a few misjudged approach shots on 2, 5, and 12 that led to bogey, the swing appeared to be in good shape when he was able to play from the fairway. Max was done in far more by the worst short-game performance he’s had in over two years than he was by the long game, and I don’t think there’s any shame in getting exposed by the brutal green side surrounds at LACC.
Homa’s also logged 6th and 9th place finishes earlier this year at direct corollary courses in Sawgrass and Colonial, and he’s won at another short, Northeastern, bentgrass course in Potomac last season. If the ball striking can continue to progress, Max can finally begin to take advantage of what has been one of the hottest putters in this field - as he rates out inside the top 15 in lead-in putting form and has gained nearly a stroke per round on the greens since the Wells Fargo in May.
With four wins in the last two seasons on Tour, we know Max has the ability to cash outright tickets at a prolific rate when his game comes together. Judging by what I saw last week, that point is much closer than a 66-1 price tag would indicate. I think this is a drastic overcorrection by bookmakers, and I’m more than happy to take a shot in this bounce-back spot.
Justin Thomas (75-1)
As for Justin Thomas, there’s not a lot of good I can take out of the (+14) he shot through two days at LACC. Losing 5.2 shots off-the-tee and 3.4 on approach is nearly unfathomable for the former World No. 1, and with just two Top 10 finishes in the 2022-23 season, legitimate questions have to be asked about how high the ceiling currently is.
However, we’re now getting 75-1 on one of the best wedge players of his generation, and a guy that has been very successful both in these Northeast birdie parties (’19 BMW; ’17 Dell Technologies; ’22 Canadian Open), and on shorter, positional venues throughout his career (PLAYERS, Sony, Valspar, Mayakoba, Travelers - 3rd here in 2016).
I completely understand if you’re turned off by last week, but when betting outright winners, it’s important to avoid any visceral reactions when a player lets you down. At the end of the day, Justin Thomas’s Friday 81 paid out just as much as Rory McIlroy coming one-shot short Sunday evening.
The only question we should be asking is if Justin Thomas is capable of winning this golf tournament, and are you willing to take a shot at his current number? The fact is, Justin Thomas is 75-1, at a venue where you’re able to have a wedge in your hand on every other hole, and he’s performed very well historically at many of the comp courses we use to predict future success around River Highlands. Maybe he misses another cut and we can add another data point to the hypothesis that Justin Thomas is a washed-up has-been. But I know for a fact that missing an opportunity here at 75-1 would hurt a lot more than the $30 I’m in line to lose if he fires another back-breaking 81.
Andrew Putnam (220-1)
With three separate 100-1 longshot winners in the last decade, it's no surprise that River Highlands’ lack of length and emphasis on wedge play and putting has proven to be very friendly to players at the back of the board. When you weigh those two things exclusively, it’s difficult not to be drawn in by Andrew Putnam this week.
The Pepperdine alum has made a living at venues just like this: logging Top 10s at many of the <7000-yard comp. courses we’ve discussed throughout this article (Waialae, Colonial, Pebble Beach, PGA West, etc). Perhaps more exciting than his long-term aptitude at these positional courses is the ball-striking form Putnam has ridden over the last few months. He rates out inside the top 20 in both SG: APP and Birdie Chances Created, and on a per-round basis, only seven players in this elite field have outperformed Putnam’s combined averages in iron play and putting. Having finished in a tie for fifth in another elevated event at the Memorial earlier this month, Putnam is certainly a threat to one-up that finish on a golf course much better suited to his skill set.
The Shortlist
Although we already have six names on the betting card, starting all the way down at 50-1 leaves us plenty of room for some potential in-tournament adds. As it stands, I've only used ~$200 of my typical $360 outright budget this week, so here are a few names I'll be keeping a close eye on as the week progresses.
Xander Schauffele (16-1) - Admittedly, I was planning on having Collin Morikawa in the top spot on this shortlist, but seeing our defending champion drift into the 16-1 range was too enticing to pass on. Xander is doing more or less what we saw right before he strung together three consecutive victories last summer (starting right here at River Highlands) - striking the ball great, putting it solidly, and just waiting on everything to come together to find the winner's circle. He's historically had a lot more success as the Tour has made its summer move into the Northeast, and when you combine his iron and putting splits over the last three months, only Wyndham Clark rates out better than Schauffele does. I'm not letting the win sneak up on me this time, and as long as we don't see any signs of a U.S. Open hangover, I'd be more than happy to pour the rest of my budget into the San Diego kid. I don't think he's currently getting the respect he deserves on this board.
Tommy Fleetwood (35-1) - I talked a little earlier about recent Travelers Champions looking pretty obvious in retrospect. Perhaps no other player in the field has shown more promising signs than Tommy Fleetwood over the last few weeks. From tee to green, only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have gained more strokes than Fleetwood over their last 24 rounds, and Tommy was a closing birdie away from capturing a win at another short, bentgrass wedge fest in Oakdale two weeks ago. Fleetwood carried that momentum right into a fifth-place finish at LACC last week (gaining 12 shots ball-striking in the process), and there's no doubt that he should be considered one of the leading candidates for a breakout win this summer. If he can play as freely as he did in his Sunday climb up the U.S. Open leaderboard, I see no reason why he can't put himself in a winning position once again.
Aaron Rai (125-1) - River Highlands is a venue that opens possibilities up for many different players, and even as we cross the threshold into the triple digits, players like Eric Cole, Austin Eckroat, C.T. Pan, and Mark Hubbard have all shown recent form worthy of consideration around a short, wedge-intensive venue like this. If I could only pick one of these plucky underdogs, however, it would have to be Aaron Rai. One of my top submissions in my Canadian Open article two weeks ago, Rai showcased the pinnacle of his ball-striking ability north of the border: gaining a field-best 14 shots from tee-to-green, while also rating out 3rd in driving accuracy for the week. I was particularly impressed by how he played in contention down the stretch (while many more recognizable names melted around him). If one or two putts would have fallen in Canada, the 28-year-old Englishman might well have been able to capture his first-ever win on the PGA Tour. That opportunity doesn't have to go begging for long, however, as River Highlands puts a similar strain on driving accuracy and wedge play, and Rai is clearly playing some of the best all-around golf we've seen since he made the full-time move to the States. This is exactly the type of venue I envision him making a splash at, and given the increased strength in field, we haven't seen the price break you usually see when a player shows out in the way Rai did. With a PM tee time and a front-nine start, he's also in the perfect position to potentially drift further down the odds board as Round 1 gets underway. Keep an eye out.
Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!
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