Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - RBC Canadian Open

Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2023 RBC Canadian Open from Oakdale Country Club.

Fresh off of Viktor Hovland’s breakthrough win at Muirfield Village last week, the Tour enters a stretch of two historic National Opens in North America. Much is already being made about our long-awaited first trip to LACC for the 123rd iteration of the U.S. Open next week, but our northernmost neighbors are breaking new ground in their own right: as we visit the historic club of Oakdale for the 112th iteration of the Canadian Open.

With just 10 of the OWGR Top 30 in attendance, the field won’t be as star-studded as we’ve been used to in the sea of elevated events and Major Championships over the last few months, but plenty of prestige is on the line for the 20 Canadians in the field - all aiming to claim Canada’s first win in its Open since 1954. We’ve also got a selection of Britain and Ireland’s top names looking to break through with their first win of 2023, as well as the professional debut of the #1 ranked Amateur in World Golf: Ludvig Aberg. 

Although North York won’t bring the same pomp and circumstance as I expect in Los Angeles next week, the tickets all cash the same for us who gamble. Given the lack of depth present in this field, I’d actually consider this an easier betting board to decipher in the outright market. Let’s go for three in a row at Flag Hunting! Here’s everything you need to know about Oakdale Country Club and the 2023 Canadian Open.

The Golf Course

For the first time in the Canadian Open’s history, we’ll be playing at Oakdale Country Club on the outskirts of Toronto. Measuring at just 7,264 yards from the tips, Oakdale will play as the 7th shortest Par 72 on the schedule, and to the eye, you’d be forgiven for mistaking it for last year's Canadian Open venue in St. George’s.

Aesthetically, this is about as textbook of a northeastern parkland course as it gets, with the dimensions of a more positional track you’d expect to find in the southeast. As comp. courses go, I think both genres are valid data points to reference: with places like Detroit GC, TPC Deere Run, and TPC River Highlands sharing similar agronomy and hole compositions, and Sedgefield or Innisbrook providing a similar test of positional driving and penal rough.

With this being the first time we’ve visited Oakdale, exact figures on fairway width have been difficult to come by, but similar to St. George’s last year, it would appear that the primary defense of this course lies just off of the short grass.

Initial on-site reports put the rough at 4-5” (even longer than we saw at Muirfield Village last week), and although recent dry conditions in the area could take a bit of the sting out of the Kentucky Bluegrass, it has become quite apparent that Canadian Open execs are placing a clear emphasis on penalizing wayward tee shots.

Given the lack of length on many of these Par 4’s, I would look for many players to club down off the tee to ensure their second shot comes from the fairway. As a result, I’ll be looking for players that have excelled on positional driving tests in the past (Harbour Town, Innisbrook, Sedgefield, and TPC River Highlands all fall under these parameters).

In terms of proximity ranges, I count at least eight holes where players will expect to have an approach inside of 150 yards - not counting potential layups on Par 5’s or from the thick rough on the longer par 4’s. This strong emphasis on wedge play is something you typically don’t see on a Par 72; further emphasizing my connection between Oakdale and some of the short Par 70’s we see in the South.

Driving accuracy and wedge proximity make up a plurality of my projected ball-striking profile this week, and with Vegas lines setting the winning score at ~(-18) for the week, I do want a player that is capable of making enough putts to approach (-20). 

Admittedly, driving accuracy, wedge play, and putting are not exactly skills that are exclusive enough to separate the elite ball-strikers in this field, so in direct contrast to my philosophies at venues like Oak Hill or Muirfield Village, there are a multitude of different angles you can take on the betting board this week.

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be important to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play.

Although I spent much of my course breakdown outlining the prevalence of short holes and wedge play, there are four holes at Oakdale that look more reminiscent of the Major Championship caliber test we saw at Oak Hill less than a month ago. 

Holes 3, 4, 5, and 6 are the only Par 4’s on the golf course that measure over 435 yards - tipping out at 489, 470, 463, and 473 yards respectively, and should present far-and-away the stiffest test to players over the course of their rounds. Of course, without historic scoring averages to fall back on, it’s impossible to tell how difficult these holes will actually play, but they certainly fit the profile of the toughest holes on the golf course. 

These four holes, coupled with the fact that only one of the three Par 5’s on property resides on the front side, makes it a near certainty which players are at an advantage when attempting to get off to a hot start on Thursday or Friday. 

The back nine at Oakdale features two very gettable Par 5’s (measuring 553 and 496 yards respectively), as well as 5 Par 4’s that should be very straightforward wedge opportunities for players - the longest of the bunch coming at the 432-yard 17th hole. 

In a similar vein to Muirfield Village last week, it's important to make that distinction between the nines an integral part of your live betting process. Once again, I can't give you exact figures outlining the differences between the scoring averages on each side, but everything I've seen would lead me to believe that books are likely to underrate the slower starters playing the front side first.

Once players walk off of the 6th green, there aren't a ton of obstacles I see hindering them from piling up birdie chances in bunches. Use that to your advantage in the live market, as we could easily see 2-3 stroke swings between players playing 10-15 as opposed to 1-6.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

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Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Tyrrell Hatton (12-1)

Frankly, I didn’t expect to come into this week's tournament holding a 12-1 ticket, but you can’t take a number at face value when constructing a betting card. I believe Hatton belongs in his own tier apart from the names around him on the odds board (Young, Fitz, Burns, etc), and given the lack of viable options down the board, the opportunity cost I typically associate with spending half of my weekly budget on a 12-1 outright is largely mitigated. 

Statistically, there have been no holes to poke in Tyrrell’s game in 2023, as he rates out 4th in SG: OTT in his last 36 rounds, 2nd in Good Drive %, 2nd in SG: APP, 6th in Wedge Proximity <150 yards, 2nd in BoB Gained, and 7th in SG: Putting.

With 12 Top 15’s in his last 19 starts, the Englishman has been primed for a win for some time, and this week, he doesn’t have to contend with the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, or Brooks Koepka. This field/venue should remind him a lot of his days on the European Tour, and I guarantee there isn’t a golfer in this field that an in-form Hatton is afraid of. 

Justin Rose (22-1)

I couldn’t resist going back to the well on J-Rose, as the last time we saw/bet him, he was leading the Colonial field on Approach (+7.8), and in his last competitive round in Canada, he just so happened to shoot a ten-under 60 to finish T4 at St. George’s. 

Rose leads the field in SG: APP (last 36 rounds), and he’s top 10 in Good Drive %, Birdie or Better %, and Birdie Chances Created. The former World No. 1 has already scored a win at a short, wedge-intensive course at Pebble Beach earlier this year and you could argue he comes into a similar test this week in even better lead-in form.

SG: Total in this field since the start of 2023:

1. Tyrrell Hatton (1.8/rd)
2. Justin Rose (1.7/rd)
3. Tommy Fleetwood/Rory McIlroy/Eric Cole (1.3/rd)

It’s not often I’m able to fit the two strokes gained leaders on a single betting card, let alone when the numbers show a significant gap between these top two and the rest of the field. I’m placing my trust in Mark Brodie at the top of the board, let’s hope these two can play to the same capabilities they’ve shown thus far in 2023.

Adrian Meronk (50-1)

With Min Woo Lee and Ryan Fox’s recent admission into full-time PGA Tour Membership, Adrian Meronk is now the undisputed #1 across the pond these days. The 29-year-old Pole has won 3 times Worldwide over the last 12 months, and is currently lapping the DP World Tour from Tee to Green (nearly half a shot better than Jayden Schaper in 2nd). He’s the best total driver of the ball on the DP World Tour, #4 in BoB %, 3rd in Greens in Regulation, and 5th in scoring average. 

Meronk has already shown us some positive form in the states this year as well: posting a 14th-place finish at The Honda Classic in February, and gaining over 7 shots ball-striking at the PGA Championship a few weeks back. He was already on my radar as a sleeper next week in LA, but at 50-1 this week, he’s an extremely compelling player in a field largely devoid of top options.

With these three bets, we’ve officially used up around 90% of our weekly outright budget. Although the big bullets have already been fired, there are still some interesting names to monitor from down the board as the tournament progresses. Here are a few deeper cuts I’ll be keeping tabs on in the live market:

The Shortlist

• Aaron Rai (80-1) - one of the more accurate drivers of the ball on Tour should excel at keeping his ball out of the gnarled rough around Oakdale, and Rai has shown a repeated ability to spike with his iron play (5 individual starts gaining over 5 shots on APP since the Canadien Open last year). The putter is the main concern, but you could voice similar concerns about many names at the top of the odds board. At 80-1, it’s difficult to find a more enticing ball-striking profile.

• Brendon Todd (100-1) - Todd has made a career out of contending at these shorter, wedge-intensive tracks: finishing 2nd at Pebble Beach earlier this year, 9th at the Fortinet, 3rd at last year’s Charles Schwab, and holding extensive track records at Mayakoba, Bermuda, Harbour Town, and Sea Island. What the veteran lacks in a game-breaking ball-striking ceiling, he makes up for in the ability to pour in putts (#1 in Bentgrass putting since the start of 2020). Like Rai, Todd is one of the more accurate drivers of the ball you’ll find on Tour and sneakily ranks inside the top 20 in wedge proximity inside 150 yards. With a 13th-place finish at St. Georges last year in which he gained 3.8 shots on APP and 5.7 Putting, he’s already proven he can find a formula for success around a similar venue north of the border. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him lurking deep into the weekend around Oakdale.

• Alex Smalley (75-1) - Smalley entered into last year's final round in Canada just two shots off the lead, and although a Sunday 73 pushed him all the way into a tie for 21st, it hasn’t been the first time that the Duke alum has proven his mettle on a positional golf course. As a matter of fact, 10 of Alex’s 12 best career driving performances have come at venues under 7,200 yards, and he comes into this event having gained shots on approach in eight consecutive starts. He had the best T2G week of his career just a few miles down the road at St. George’s last year, and given the form he’s in, I don’t believe 75-1 fully encompasses the Blue Devil’s upside in a field largely devoid of quality options. 

• Aaron Cockerill (200-1) - I’ve yet to talk about any Canadians in their national open, but Aaron Cockerill deep into the triple digits might be the best value of the bunch. Cockerill is likely a new name to many American viewers, but the 31-year-old Canadian has put together quite a run on the DP World Tour to start his 2023 campaign. In his last five starts, Aaron has finished no worse than T21 - highlighted by a runner-up performance at the ISPS Handa Championship in Omitama, Japan, and by the numbers, Cockerel rates out 4th in scoring average, 10th in BoB %, 20th in Driving Accuracy, and 4th in SG: Putting across the pond. It’s admittedly a big ask for the 31-year-old to get his first career win at his National Open, but I like the overall profile enough to keep tabs on him when he’s priced as deep as 300-1 in some spots.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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