Fantasy Basketball Sleepers: Bounce-Back Draft Targets for 2024-25

October 11, 2024

Brian's fantasy basketball draft sleepers as bounce-back candidates for 2024-25 drafts. He identifies NBA draft sleepers who will have big statistical seasons.

The 2024-25 fantasy basketball season is inching closer as the calendar nears October and draft season is upon us. It’s never too early to look to draft prep and one way to gain an edge as a fantasy manager is to identify players who are primed to bounce back after disappointing years. 

In 9-category leagues, a disappointing season can be due to many factors -- a drop-off in efficiency, lack of supporting/defensive statistics, and altered team dynamics, to name a few. Oftentimes, big-name players can prove disappointing in our virtual game. 

Here are five players who failed to deliver relative to expectations last year, but could be in line for bounce-back seasons in 2024-25. 

Darius Garland - PG, Cleveland Cavaliers

Garland struggled last season, turning in a disappointing fantasy campaign after two promising seasons of top-50 overall value. In 57 games last season, Garland saw dips in pretty much every statistical category. He averaged 18.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 3.1 turnovers per game while shooting 44.6 percent from the field, 83.4 percent from the line, and 37.1 percent from three.

The efficiency dip is a concern but Garland is still a good three-point threat with 2.3 three-pointers per game last season and a return to his shooting norms would be a big boost to his fantasy value this season. The assist and steal totals should be there for the talented point guard. 

Darius Garland working on counters and using his eyes to bait defenders and see the floor with trainer Dash 👀 @NBA #NBAFitness pic.twitter.com/zdu2608SAu

— Swish Cultures (@swishcultures_) September 12, 2024

Surrounded by stars in Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, expect Garland to raise his game this season and push for a return to top-50 value. With a consensus ADP of 63.5 between Yahoo and ESPN leagues, there is room for profit this year after Garland has typically been in the second- or third-round range. With Kenny Atkinson at the helm for the Cavs, look for a Garland resurgence. 

Cade Cunningham - PG/SG, Detroit Pistons

Cunningham entered the NBA as a No. 1 draft pick with justifiably high expectations. So far, the overall fantasy production hasn’t met the hype.

Last year, Cunningham averaged 22.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 3.4 turnovers per game. He improved his percentages in Year 3, shooting 44.9 percent from the field, 86.9 percent from the free-throw line, and 35.5 percent from the three-point line. 

All of that was good for the 82nd overall player in 9-category leagues, which doesn’t showcase the overall potential he possesses. He played in 62 games last season after just 12 two years ago, so there are some durability concerns.

But a healthy Cunningham, who enters ranked 33rd in Yahoo’s preseason rankings, should continue to improve in Year 4 in the league. A consensus ADP of 35.5 bakes in some of Cunningham’s upside, so you do have to pay up for the hopeful Cunningham bounceback.

Cade Cunningham through 3 seasons:

20.0 PPG | 6.5 APG | 5.0 RPG

1 of 7 players averaging those numbers or better since he entered the league. pic.twitter.com/3e3pW3UtBA

— StatMuse (@statmuse) August 23, 2024

On a revamped Pistons squad with a new coach in J.B. Bickerstaff, though, expect Cunningham to reach new levels in 2024-25. He is the No. 1 scoring threat and facilitator on a team that added an offensive weapon in Tobias Harris in the offseason.

Continued efficiency improvements and cutting down on the turnover rate coupled with natural progression in his overall game could lead to big results. 

Josh Giddey - SG/SF, Chicago Bulls

Giddey is a very talented player whose role diminished last season in Oklahoma City as the Thunder developed into one of the best teams in the Western Conference. With a young nucleus in OKC, the Thunder decided to move on from Giddey, who will get a fresh start with the Bulls. 

Last season with the Thunder, Giddey’s minutes fell to 25.1 per game and he averaged 12.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.6 steals, and 1.0 three-pointers per game. He’s not a great three-point shooter, but he rebounds well for a guard and his assists numbers should rise in Chicago with the opportunity to have the ball in his hands more often. 

Josh Giddey and Brandon Miller are among the guards to keep tabs on heading into the 2024-25 fantasy basketball season 👀https://t.co/DdnUoNEb1b

— NBA Fantasy (@NBAFantasy) August 27, 2024

He doesn’t possess the upside of Garland or Cunningham, but a return to top-80 overall value would be a nice bounceback for Giddey and is attainable with a new team and potentially a more favorable situation for him.

If his defense improves, he could see a major uptick in his value this season. As a mid-round flier, Giddey is a great bet this season. His consensus ADP of 71.5 shows that you can get him in that fifth- or sixth-round range.

Jaden McDaniels - SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves

McDaniels is the ultimate glue guy in a team sense, but he has shown he can be a really good fantasy contributor as well. Last year, that was not the case as he barely fell inside the top 200. He has a consistent role on a very good team as a three-and-D guy. 

Last year, his shooting dropped from 51.7 percent to 48.9 percent from the field and his block total decreased from 1.0 to 0.6 per game. With a player who is not a huge counting stats guy in the first place, those decreases are significant. If he can find his shooting rhythm and reclaim his defensive prowess, he makes for a nice bounce-back candidate.

19 PTS FOR JADEN MCDANIELS. 😤

new Playoff career-high for a half. pic.twitter.com/XlmDMIlju4

— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) May 23, 2024

With a consensus ADP of 159, McDaniels is flying under the radar after last year. The good news is he still should find some open looks on corner three-pointers and he has a solidified role on the team because of his defensive skills. He could be someone who is overlooked because of last year’s performance. Be ready to take advantage late in drafts. 

Jaylen Brown - SG/SF, Boston Celtics

It’s hard to recall Brown’s fantasy season as a disappointment because the last we saw of him, he was dominating the playoffs on his way to NBA Finals MVP honors. But Brown’s 23.0 points per game fell from 26.6 the year prior and his 5.5 rebounds per game were well below his career norm. His free-throw percentage also dipped to 70.3 percent.

All of this is to say he wasn’t the dominant, early round guard that he usually is in fantasy. That was to be expected a bit with the depth of the Celtics when they added Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis last year. He re-established his dominance in the playoffs, which is a good sign for his prospects this season. 

A lot of hardware for Jaylen Brown at #NBAMediaDay 🔥🏆 pic.twitter.com/cPSN5kJG9n

— NBA (@NBA) September 24, 2024

There is some worry that, like last year, he won’t be needed to carry the regular-season load. But Brown is still elite defensively, a great source of three-pointers, and is a nice bet to return to top-50 overall value with the potential for even more should an injury open up a bigger role.

With a consensus ADP of 36.5, there isn’t much of a discount on Brown this year in drafts, however.

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