FFPC ADP Observations - Wide Receivers

August 2, 2019

Scott Engel analyzes 2019 fantasy football wide receiver ADP trends for the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) in terms of NFL player values. Which WRs are being overvalued or undervalued?

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As you may be preparing for your upcoming Fantasy Football draft, the most competitive players in the biz have already been grinding away. High stakes competitors in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) have started drafting ahead of the pack and setting the ideal bars for where players should be picked. As you ready to build your own squad, it’s a good time to check in where the FFPC competitors are valuing key performers. We’ll see where they are taking some key wide receivers as August begins.

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FFPC ADP Trends at WR

Back on the Hill (FFPC ADP: 5^th at WR): Now that it appears Tyreek Hill is not in danger of being suspended, FFPC players have put him back into top-level territory. While drafters on three other notable sites are taking Hill at seventh overall on average, the high stakers are picking him at fifth. Some mainstream players may be slightly concerned that another off-field infraction by Hill could get him suspended for sure. But the FFPC owners have a mindset of being aggressive, not conservative, and want Hill’s outstanding numbers without worrying about what may not happen at all.

Not Quite as Big on Beckham (ADP: WR6): The high stakes players are slightly less excited about Odell Beckham Jr. than some drafters on other sites. Players on three other notable platforms are taking Beckham as early as fourth on average. The FFPCers are taking him sixth overall. Obviously, the Cleveland hype train has rolled into other sites, but the high stakes players will take Hill, as he is not changing teams and does not have any durability concerns as we have sometimes seen with Beckham.

Ready for Ridley (ADP: WR21): This could be the big breakthrough season for Calvin Ridley, and the FFPC players are ready to ride with him as a Fantasy WR2. On three other significant Fantasy platforms, Ridley is being taken between 23^rd and 25^th at wide receiver. The Falcons second year wideout has an ADP of 21 at WR in the high stakes format. I cannot get the Ridley scouting report from Atlanta Journal-Constitution beat reporter D. Orlando Ledbetter out of my mind. When I interviewed him recently on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio he compared Ridley to a young Marvin Harrison. That’s the kind of breakout candidate I want on my fantasy rosters this year.

Digging Dante (ADP: WR29): FFPC players are higher on Dante Pettis than competitors on any other platform. They are taking the 49ers WR at 29^th on average, while he is going at 32^nd to 37^th on every other site. If Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy this time, you have to believe that Pettis will be his prime playmaker. He flashed a lot of big-play potential in his rookie year playing with backup types. He has the most promise of any WR on the San Francisco roster, and the Niners may finally get a full season of quality play from the QB position this season.

Not Done with Larry (ADP: WR34): He is the second Arizona WR being taken on all platforms. closely behind Christian Kirk (32), but FFPC players are maintaining more faith in Larry Fitzgerald than on any other site. Only in the FFPC is Fitzgerald being selected as a true Fantasy WR3, with an ADP of 34. He is being taken between 38^th and 41^st on every other notable site. Obviously, the high stakes players believe that a rookie QB must lean on his most savvy pass catcher in a significant way, even if he is near the end of his career. All of the other top Cardinal pass-catchers are mostly unproven. Fitzgerald will be 36 years old when the season starts, but he can still put up some better numbers than some other younger players. His FFPC ADP is still lower than his age.

Keen Eye on Allison (ADP: WR35): FFPC drafters seem to be more sold on Geronimo Allison than fantasy players on any other site. While the high stakers are taking him as a low-end WR (35^th), owners on every other platform are picking him between 45^th and 55^th at the position. Allison’s FFPC ADP is a prime illustration of how the high stakes players will be aggressive on a certain guy when they believe in him. Allison has experience playing with Aaron Rodgers and is penciled in as the slot receiver, where his size and strength could be advantageous. He played at a very respectable level for four games in 2018 before his season was ruined by injuries.

Down on Davis (ADP: WR41): High stakes players seem to be running out of patience with Corey Davis. While he is being taken as a WR3 on three other sites (between 28^th and 33^rd), FFPC owners are not even drafting him as a starting Fantasy WR. There seems to be a lack of confidence in Marcus Mariota overall in fantasy circles, and Davis has not lived up to his billing so far in his career. This is a pivotal season for Davis, who must finally start to show he was worth a high first round pick in 2017. Apparently the high stakes crowd believes he won’t be able to ward off the growing perception that he is a big bust.

Not Seeing the Sutton Breakout (ADP: WR43): Fantasy owners on three other platforms are viewing second year Bronco Courtland Sutton as a WR3, taking him between 34^th and 36^th. High stakers in the FFPC seem to believe that Sutton must earn his starting spot. The QB situation in Denver does not help inspire confidence in the Broncos passing game. As confident he has been outwardly, there is a widespread opinion that Joe Flacco won’t be able to inspire much life in the offense. Drew Lock has not looked sharp so far in the preseason, and it is clear he has much work to do mechanically and fundamentally even though he has impressive natural gifts. The Denver WRs could be bogged down by their QBs in 2019.

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