RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Two weeks down, 15 to go. Week 2 is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 3 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Week 3 Fantasy Football Risers
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
What if I told you Nico Collins is the WR6 on the year through two weeks? Would you believe me? Probably not, but you also wouldn't believe there's a real person named Puka Nacua who's also a top-5 guy. But here we are! Check out this list of receivers Collins finds himself alongside:
C.J. Stroud may not be the best quarterback in the league, but he's doing just fine to support a top-tier receiver in Collins. Per PFF, he's the highest-graded wide receiver vs. single coverage this season. These are incredible accolades. Granted, it's been just two weeks, but Nico looks like the real deal.
In 2022, Collins had just nine or more targets in four of 10 games. In 2023, he's done so in both of his games played. And he's done so on just a 65% snap share. The Texans did the same thing last season, where Collins didn't eclipse a 70% snap share until Week 4. When he inevitably gets more snaps and runs more routes this season, it's wheels up for the 3rd-year wideout!
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Those with a little patience might just be getting rewarded in a big way in Week 3. After his NFL debut in which he got just nine touches on a 27% snap share, Gibbs got 14 touches on a 48% snap share in Week 2. Now add a David Montgomery injury to the mix, and it's looking like wheels up for the Alabama rookie.
Here's an interesting tidbit on Gibbs' utilization from Graham Barfield:
From a fantasy football perspective, he's being utilized how we want him to be in the passing game (he had nine targets in Week 2), but he's not seeing much success on limited runs between the tackles. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it'll be interesting to see if he gets a few more carries with Montgomery potentially sidelined. Craig Reynolds and Zonovan Knight figure to mix in on early downs, but Gibbs' should see upwards of 20 opportunities in Week 3.
It was a tough Week 1 for Gibbs managers, but Week 2 gave us a glimpse of his elite PPR ceiling when he caught seven passes. Week 3 vs. the Falcons could be his coming-out party.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Reed has made the most of his opportunity thus far. Despite playing on just 56% of the snaps in Week 2, the Packers rookie wideout posted a 32% target share. He saw eight targets despite playing just over half the snaps. Not only is he being targeted a lot on the routes that he's running, but he's been the first read on 29% of Green Bay's passing plays. Check this out:
Only Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua have been targeted on their teams' first read more often than Reed. It's just a matter of time before he starts running ahead of Romeo Doubs as the Packers' WR2. He's shown an ability to get open and command targets, now the workload will follow.
You may not be starting him just yet while no teams are on bye, however, his time is absolutely coming, especially if Christian Watson remains less than 100%.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers was inactive in Week 2 due to a coach's decision. Now we hear he's on the trade block and unlikely to play for the Rams ever again. This has happened before with Akers, but this time it feels more real. That leaves Kyren Williams as the feature back in Los Angeles. And when Sean McVay trusts a running back, he gives them all the work.
In Week 2, it was the Kyren show, as he handled 96% of the RB opportunities on 95% of the snaps. Ronnie Rivers saw one target. Through two weeks, Williams leads all running backs with 80 routes run. That's 19 more than Rhamondre Stevenson, who is 2nd amongst running backs with 61 routes run. That's a key statistic, as his 50+ routes run in Week 2 led to 10 targets. That was more than Jahmyr Gibbs had for the Lions, and Gibbs is only playing on 50% of the snaps.
Williams might not play on 95% of the snaps going forward, but it's not out of the realm of possibility he's on the field for 80% of the snaps week-in-and-week-out. He'll also likely see an overwhelming majority of the work, both as a pass-catcher and around the goal line (he scored two touchdowns in Week 2).
It might feel risky, but until further notice, Kyren Williams should be a locked-and-loaded RB1 in fantasy football from this point forward. Think about this, he's been producing in an offense that's missing Cooper Kupp. If Kupp makes his return in Week 5, this passing attack could be unstoppable with Puka and Kupp. That would open up some running lanes for Williams and supercharge the offense, giving him even more goal-line opportunities.
Other Risers: Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, Zach Ertz, Zack Moss, Rachaad White
Week 3 Fantasy Football Fallers
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
If you could create the perfect player, it's probably Kyle Pitts. Long, strong, and hyper-athletic. His problem is he plays for Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons. He's on the field for less than 70% of the snaps and isn't being targeted in the passing game. Through two games, Pitts has just eight targets.
Furthermore, the Falcons are only throwing the ball 25 times per game, and rookie running back Bijan Robinson is much more involved in the passing game than many would have thought. In fact, he has three more targets than Pitts through two games. Nobody saw that coming, but that's the reality of the situation. Pitts is a part-time player, the 3rd (or sometimes even 4th) option, and on a team that refuses to throw the football.
Desmond Ridder nor the Atlanta Falcons are going to be able to support Bijan, Drake London, and Pitts. It appears Pitts is the odd man out of the bunch. While he's an attractive option for your fantasy team at the tight end position, there are many more startable guys that have a much higher route participation and snap share than Pitts.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
I want to love this kid so much for fantasy football in the year 2023, but I'm not sure it's going to happen for him without an injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett (which we should never, ever wish for). Through two games, Smith-Njigba (herein referred to as 'JSN') has accumulated just 47 yards on 11 targets (4.27 yards per target, 5.88 yards per catch). Check this out, you might want to look away:
Metcalf and Lockett are two of the league's best receivers. Metcalf is a total alpha, and Lockett is one of the most underrated route-runners in the NFL.
So while he's probably the best "handcuff" wide receiver out there, it'll be tough to trust him on a weekly basis without an injury to the two aforementioned studs. Don't outright cut bait, but also don't start him at this point with that putrid average depth of target and 57% snap share.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
This one could come back to bite me in a big way, but I'm officially at least a little bit worried about Chase and the Bengals' offense. He's got single-digit targets in his first two games. Granted it's been nine targets and eight targets, but he also only has five receptions in each game. Last season, he had five or fewer receptions in just two games, and single-digit targets in just three games. So...not off to the best of starts for Mr. Chase.
Another thing that worries me is of course Joe Burrow's calf. Coming out of their Week 2 loss to the Ravens, Burow told reporters that he tweaked his calf. Check out what James Palmer had to say about the team's energy in the locker room:
This sounds like an issue that could very well linger. If that's the case, we could see Jake Browning step in as the starting quarterback. Maybe the Bengals make a move for a free agent if Burrow's injury is more significant than expected, but either way, there's going to be a learning curve at the position. That doesn't bode well for Chase.
Additionally, the Bengals are playing much slower than they played a season ago. Through two games, they're averaging just 55.5 plays per game (4th-slowest in the NFL), whereas a season ago, they averaged 65.3 plays per game (9th-fastest in the NFL).
To make matters worse, the Bengals' offensive line play has been sub-par, which hasn't allowed Burrow much time to throw downfield to Chase. That's where he makes his living, down the field. On the young season, Chase is averaging just 4.1 yards per target, and seven yards per catch.
If someone is chomping at the bit to trade for him, you'd be wise to at least consider it. Don't take much of a discount, but also don't expect Chase to be the 2nd-best wide receiver after Justin Jefferson this season. Adjust and temper your expectations as long as Burrow is hurt and the offense remains dysfunctional.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Is the Najee experiment over yet? I've been saying all along how he wasn't a good pick in the 3rd or even 4th round of fantasy drafts. Not only because of his poor efficiency the last two seasons but because of Jaylen Warren as well.
Through two weeks, Harris has 19 touches on a 54% snap share, while Warren has 18 touches on a 42% snap share. The difference is this:
Unfortunately for Najee, the Steelers look downright awful, so he's not going to get a boost from this offense being a juggernaut. Without the rookie year workload, it's extremely difficult to see Harris paying off at his pre-draft price tag. If I were a Harris manager, I'd be looking to sell-low to anybody who thinks there's a significant bounce-back on the horizon.
Other Fallers: Zay Jones, Kenny Pickett, Gerald Everett, Dameon Pierce
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