RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 11 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 10 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 10, our biggest risers were Chase Brown, Rico Dowdle, Mike Gesicki, and Darnell Mooney. Our biggest fallers were Jaylen Waddle, James Cook, Nick Chubb, and Travis Etienne Jr. Brown was a bell cow with Zack Moss out, Gesicki had a season-high snap share and route participation rate, and Mooney went for 80+ yards in his third straight game. As for the fallers, Etienne couldn't muster much production despite Tank Bigsby leaving early and never returning.
Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 11.
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Week 11 Fantasy Football Risers
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
Jennings has now played two games without one of either Deebo Samuel Sr. (Week 3) or Brandon Aiyuk (Week 10). In those two games, he's averaging nine catches for 134 yards and 11.5 targets. Even with Ricky Pearsall in the mix in Week 10, Jennings was still the alpha dog for San Francisco. He led the team in a whole bunch of metrics:
Jauan Jennings, in his first game back, led the 49ers in:
Routes run
Targets
Receptions
Air yards
Receiving yardsRan a route on 40 of 41 dropbacks and finished with a 32% target share and 34% air yardage share.
Top-12 Fantasy WR upside
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 11, 2024
Even with Christian McCaffrey back, Jennings was still heavily targeted and a big part of the 49ers offense. With Aiyuk out for the rest of the season, there's no reason to believe this won't continue. It's no wonder the 49ers extended Jennings for two years, $15.39M in the offseason.
Yes, there are a ton of good options in San Francisco, which could lead to a couple of mediocre performances. However, we've seen Jennings' ceiling now in multiple games this season. He's essentially the WR1 in the best offense in the NFL. Consider him a top-20 wide receiver option the rest of the way.
Audric Estime, Denver Broncos
For weeks, we heard Estime would get more work in the Broncos backfield. And then multiple weeks went by and he barely saw any work. That was until Week 10 when Estime overtook Javonte Williams as the team's lead back.
Audric Estime played the most snaps for the Broncos on Sunday. His 46% snap share was significantly higher than his previous high of 10%. He did trail Javonte Williams in routes run 10 to 8, though, per PFF.
Estime's 82.4% running back rush share was the highest from a Broncos…
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 11, 2024
Estime led the way with 14 carries to Williams' one and Jaleel McLaughlin's two. His 3.8 yards per carry average looks unimpressive on paper, but Estime had some nice runs vs. the best run defense in the league.
@AudricEstime is a Monster 🚂💪🏿📈 #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/dphXeRQRvl
— Terrence Fedé (@T_Fede) November 10, 2024
Of note, however, is that Williams still ran more routes than Estime (10 to eight). We could see Williams' role turning into 2023 Samaje Perine. Perine was the third-down back last season while Williams and McLaughlin handled the early down work.
From Week 11 on, it wouldn't come as a surprise to see Estime dominate the early down work with Williams in on third downs and McLaughlin spelling both guys.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Fresh off a new contract extension, Hubbard saw an 88% snap share and registered a career-high 169 total yards on 32 touches. Miles Sanders had to leave this game early, but Hubbard had been taking control of this backfield in previous weeks before Week 10. It all culminated in him being a true workhorse vs. the Giants in Munich, Germany.
Chuba Hubbard is special. pic.twitter.com/XusZ4sPQyq
— NFL Canada (@NFLCanada) November 10, 2024
The Panthers are heading into their bye week and could get rookie Jonathon Brooks back in Week 12. However, with a contract extension in place, it seems unlikely Dave Canales will take much work away from Hubbard going forward.
In what most would consider a "lost" season in Carolina, there's no way even Brooks would prevent Hubbard from being a workhorse the rest of the way.
Carolina paid Chuba Hubbard because he embodies Dave Canales’ vision for the Panthers
it’s about talent, but it’s also about culture https://t.co/cjW6CMITL3
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 7, 2024
Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts
With Michael Pittman Jr. (back) out in Week 10, AD Mitchell stepped right into a full-time starter role. He played 94% of the snaps and tied Alec Pierce with a 95% route participation rate. He caught all six of his six targets for a season-high 71 yards. He led all Colts receivers in yards after the catch per reception (3.33).
still thinking about this whip route from Adonai Mitchell vs. L'Jarius Sneed pic.twitter.com/SaJJEHPwjM
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) October 14, 2024
Remember, despite the limited playing time, this guy has been getting open at ease this season when he has seen the field.
Average Separation Score vs. TPRR
*Adonai Mitchell and Josh Downs become very interesting with Joe Flacco
*Massive gap between Garrett Wilson (top-right) and Davante Adams (far-left)
* George Pickens up in alpha territory with Nico Collins and CeeDee Lamb pic.twitter.com/iZYh49W4Iu
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) October 30, 2024
Pittman registered three straight DNPs in practice leading up to Week 10 when he was ultimately ruled out. If he were to miss more time (very possible), Mitchell would become a steady WR3 with WR2 upside with Joe Flacco under center. If Pittman comes back, however, it's an entirely different story. Keep a close watch on this evolving situation.
Other Risers: Christian McCaffrey, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Noah Brown, Jaylen Warren, Jalen Coker
Week 11 Fantasy Football Fallers
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears returned from a hamstring injury and immediately saw double-digit touches for just the second time this season. Unfortunately for Pollard managers, that spelled much less work for the veteran.
He went from averaging 24 touches per game without Spears to getting just 13 touches in Week 10. His snap share dropped from 85% to just 54%, which was a season-low for Pollard. His RB opportunity share sat at just 57%. Compare that to his RB opportunity share of 86% in Week 9, 77% in Week 8, and 85% in Week 7.
While this development is probably good for Pollard's health, it's not so good for Pollard's fantasy managers. That's especially true with a couple of very tough matchups on the horizon against the Vikings and Texans.
These tough matchups hurt Pollard a bit more given Spears tends to play more on third down and passing downs when the Titans are playing from behind. In a negative game script in Week 10, Pollard registered just a 47% route participation rate.
Pollard goes from a surefire RB1 without Spears to a back-end RB2 with Spears.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Many thought Mostert could still have some fantasy value even with De'Von Achane taking over as the featured back in Miami. Since Week 5, he's gotten at least 10 touches per game. That was until Week 10 when Mostert got just two touches. Achane had 17 and Jaylen Wright had five. Mostert didn't register a single rush attempt in the game.
He only played on 15% of the snaps in Week 10 and had a route participation rate of just 22%. His RB opportunity share of just 12% was a season-low. If the Monday night game was any indication of Mostert's standing in the backfield, it appears as if the rookie has surpassed him on the depth chart.
At this point, it would be impossible to trust Mostert in your starting lineup with all three backs healthy.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Goedert returned to the lineup in Week 10 after a few weeks on the shelf with a hamstring injury. He didn't, however, return to a full workload. Maybe it was just the Eagles easing him back, but it also could have been a result of Grant Calcaterra's play over the last few weeks. Calcaterra played very well in Goedert's absence.
Goedert's 63% snap share and 60% route participation rate were both season lows. Calcaterra played 62% of the snaps and had a 33% route participation rate in Week 10. Calcaterra didn't have a snap share north of 47% with Goedert healthy in the first four weeks of the season.
As long as both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are in the lineup, Goedert will have a hard time being fantasy-relevant. In two games with both receivers active, Goedert is averaging just 28 yards on four targets per game. Now, add in the fact that Calcaterra appears poised to take away some work, and Goedert appears to be a low-floor, low-ceiling play at the tight-end position.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
BTJ hasn't been the same since he suffered a chest injury a few weeks back. In his first seven games, Thomas averaged 73.3 yards on 6.4 targets per game. In his last three games, he's averaging just 31.3 yards on 3.7 targets per game.
To make matters worse, Mac Jones is now the starting quarterback for the Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence nursing a shoulder injury. In Week 10, Jones targeted BTJ just three times. He targeted his tight ends (Evan Engram, Brenton Strange, and even Luke Farrell) a whopping 13 times. The tight-end group had a 62% target share, while wide receivers had just a 33% target share (BTJ and Gabe Davis). No other wide receiver was targeted by Jones in his first start this season.
On paper, the Jaguars have a decent matchup in Week 11 vs. Detroit for BTJ and the passing game to get back on track. However, Jacksonville's offensive line could just be completely manhandled by this hungry Lions front seven. Things could get ugly fast in Detroit this weekend. Things aren't trending in the right direction for Thomas and this Jaguars offense.
Other Fallers: Javonte Williams, Tyler Allgeier, DeVonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, J.K. Dobbins
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