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The term "sleeper" gets thrown around a lot these days in fantasy circles. Aside from being a popular fantasy gaming app, a sleeper in fantasy football is a player currently undervalued at their draft price -- particularly with the expectation they will vastly outplay their ADP. While these targets are typically a late-round choice, sleepers can come in all shapes and sizes -- and from any range in the draft.
There are few more satisfying things in life than calling your shot on a fantasy asset and having it pan out in your favor. Nailing a sleeper or two can be the difference between a first-round playoff exit and a fantasy championship on your mantle. Of course, other factors play into this; navigating injuries with the waiver wire and bolstering your team through trades prove critical for a championship run. However, a successful draft serves as the foundation for fantasy glory. The adage still rings true -- you can't win your league in your draft, but you can sure as heck lose it.
With this notion in mind -- we will examine some attractive players for the price with which you'll pay come draft season. You can comfortably fire up these athletes for your fantasy team at their ADP -- or even a bit earlier if you're so inclined. Let's get right to it.
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Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray made his return to the field in Week 10 last season after suffering a Grade 3 ACL tear in December 2022. He looked no worse for wear -- averaging 4.25 carries and 18.9 fantasy points per game from then on. That was good enough for QB9 over that span. Perhaps even more impressive of a note is that Marquise "Hollywood" Brown barely played from Week 13 on. Kyler Murray was essentially a one-man-show late last year -- sans Trey McBride -- and he accumulated weekly finishes of QB6, QB9, and QB4, never falling below QB19 -- and that was against a stout San Francisco 49ers defense.
Kyler Murray has quickly become one of my favorite young QBs in the league to watch. He makes so many “wow” throws. pic.twitter.com/zySi1mEgUA
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) May 11, 2020
The Cardinals did a good job adding some weaponry to the offense in the NFL Draft, and while we're all excited about the prospects of wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the addition of running back Trey Benson should also be a boon for Kyler's production.
In two full seasons as a starter, Murray has never finished below QB6 in fantasy. In fact, in 2021, he was the QB10 in just 14 games. It's safe to assume Murray will be more spry this year -- another year removed from a severe injury -- and Michael Wilson should provide a solid, stable third option in the Cards' passing attack. Murray is the QB11 right now in drafts -- ADP 75 -- and he's a more enticing option than the quarterbacks taken before him if we account for his rushing upside. A list of names that includes Jordan Love (No. 55 overall), Dak Prescott (No. 56), and Brock Purdy (No. 69).
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
After a tumultuous 2022 season where he suffered a concussion and spinal cord bruise in back-to-back appearances, there were questions about Matthew Stafford's future in football. He returned in 2023 and had a solid QB15 finish in 15 games. Stafford started last season off quite slow -- turning in just one multi-touchdown performance through the first 11 weeks of the campaign. However, from Weeks 12 - 17, Stafford lit up opposing defenses -- tossing 15 of his 24 passing TDs on the year. In that stretch, Stafford was the QB6 in total fantasy points.
These plays from Matthew Stafford >>>
🎥 More highlights at https://t.co/m9oFPQ0GVI pic.twitter.com/Z9isxqyaYO
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 11, 2023
If you're inclined to play the "late QB game" during your drafts and are adverse to taking a shot on the rookie quarterbacks, Stafford presents as a great option to help round out your team. Sean McVay is still running the offense, and it's expected that Cooper Kupp will be more healthy than last season -- albeit a year older. Putting that together with the maturing of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, Stafford makes for an attractive target at his price. Presently, that's QB18 -- No. 108 overall.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Early in 2023, it was evident that D'Andre Swift was the second option at running back for the Philadelphia Eagles. However, after Kenneth Gainwell suffered a rib injury, Swift took over lead-back duties and never looked back. From Week 2 on, Swift didn't miss a game due to injury and played fewer than 50% of the snaps just twice. He saw 200+ carries for the first time in his career (229) and culminated the season as the PPR RB20 on just six total touchdowns.
D'Andre Swift has has nearly 170 total yards, looking so good pic.twitter.com/cEif8fzlrU
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 15, 2023
Fast forward to 2024, and Swift again finds himself in new digs -- this time as a Chicago Bear in what looks like a fantastic offense on paper. It's safe to assume his new quarterback (Caleb Williams) won't siphon away 15 rushing scores as Jalen Hurts did, meaning more goal-line carries and scoring opportunities to boost Swift's numbers.
While it's difficult to project exactly how much this team will score with a rookie quarterback, the stacked wide receiver trio of Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze should spread defenses out -- opening up running lanes and hopefully procuring less stacked boxes. Off the board as NFFC's RB26 (No. 81 overall), Swift has an excellent shot at cracking the top 15 at his position. I like him over Tony Pollard, David Montgomery, and Javonte Williams -- all of whom are being selected before him.
Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Zack Moss performed admirably in 2023 while keeping Jonathan Taylor's spot warm during his early-season holdout. Moss had four top-10 finishes at his position through his first five appearances, three of which were RB7 or better. As expected -- Moss was phased out as Taylor was worked back into the lineup, but the former still provided standalone value with a few RB3/flex finishes down the stretch. Now, Moss finds himself in Cincinnati, with the backfield seemingly all to himself.
Zack Moss is GONE. 💨
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/hBSmZKwDsv
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 8, 2023
From what we know of Joe Mixon's workload in his time there, it's safe to assume Moss will get the lion's share of the work as a Bengal. Since 2018, Mixon hasn't finished the season lower than RB13 in PPR when he played in 14 games or more. In those five seasons, Mixon averaged 255 carries and 57 targets -- an elite level of total opportunities for an RB.
The volume will be there for Moss in a high-powered Cincinnati offense, but the expected workload is not reflected in his lowly RB38 price. Moss is a smash selection at 127 overall, 12 spots after his presumed backup, Chase Brown.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens improved upon his rookie campaign in 2023. He may not necessarily fit the "bounce-back" mold, but he certainly qualifies as a sleeper. Despite Kenny Pickett posting a dreadful 71.9% catchable pass rate -- 38th in the league, as per PlayerProfiler -- Pickens ranked second in the league in yards per catch (17.5) amongst wide receivers with 100+ targets, trailing only Brandon Aiyuk (17.8).
In 2024, Pickens gets a stark improvement in the quarterback department with Russell Wilson under center. Pickett was better on deep balls -- perhaps because of Pickens -- but Wilson stands as an upgrade regarding passing to every other area of the field.
Wilson had a far superior catchable pass rate in 2023 (75.6%) and showed a propensity to feed Courtland Sutton -- another big-bodied X WR -- red-zone targets. While this could be attributed to the schemes of each team, Pickens profiles much like Sutton, albeit with much more juice.
The Steelers added Van Jefferson through free agency and Roman Wilson in the draft, but neither imposes much of a threat to Pickens' target share, as he is far and away the unquestioned WR1 on this team. I love Pickens at his current price -- WR33 and No. 69 overall -- and he should improve again in his third year with the upgrade at QB. He has a great shot to crack the top-20 WRs come season's end, and a top-15 finish is certainly within reach.
George Pickens is a highlight machine
pic.twitter.com/PcQfz8VzUh— PFF (@PFF) December 31, 2023
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
Potentially no other wide receiver had a more disappointing season last year than the Commanders' Jahan Dotson. Despite missing five games during his rookie year, expectations were high for Dotson coming into 2023 after posting an impressive seven touchdowns on just 35 receptions.
That was unsustainable, but Dotson's detailed route running provided hope that he would improve upon his 2022 numbers. Washington's offense was a mess, though, and despite Sam Howell leading the league in pass attempts last season, the Commanders ranked 25th in points per game (19.4). The offense underwhelmed, and Dotson became the third option in the passing attack behind Curtis Samuel after it was projected he'd be the obvious No. 2 behind Terry McLaurin.
The further away from last season we get, the more impressive the Jahan Dotson highlights look. What a baller. pic.twitter.com/qYBcaFYaQB
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) May 8, 2023
It is apparent Dotson was overdrafted last season, but the pendulum might be swinging too far in the other direction in 2024. He's a clear afterthought presently, as indicated by his WR62 price (No. 157 overall), but if we're all so excited about the dynamism Jayden Daniels brings to this team, we're far too low on the third-year wideout.
Curtis Samuel is gone -- acquired by the Buffalo Bills in free agency -- and his replacement, rookie Luke McCaffrey, has just two years of WR experience after transitioning to the role in 2022 from quarterback. Dotson -- a former first-round pick -- will surely be given a chance to prove himself again in 2024, and at his price, he's basically free.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
In 2021, Kyle Pitts had arguably the greatest rookie season ever for a tight end. He disappointed epically in 2022 before suffering a severe MCL injury that would derail his season -- eventually leaking into 2023 and hampering Pitts' effectiveness in what was a weird year for the Falcons.
Pitts gets the biggest upgrade on this list as far as his team ecosystem goes with the addition of Kirk Cousins. Regardless of how much the Falcons chose to stand behind Desmond Ridder in 2023, we know that was a fruitless endeavor, as he consistently brought the offense down with off-target throws.
HOW DOES KYLE PITTS CATCH THIS 😳 pic.twitter.com/wQFpQHSEJ3
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 22, 2023
It would have been difficult for Pitts to overcome this even if he was healthy -- but a big red flag for us should have been when he appeared at training camp still donning a brace on his knee. He'll be healthy this year and still possesses the freakish athleticism that made him a popular breakout choice in 2022.
Pitts is already a little pricey to qualify for this list -- NFFC's TE6, No. 77 overall -- but he's the first one outside of the top five at his position who has the upside -- and realistic shot -- to end the season as the overall TE1. TE has been a dumpster fire -- for lack of a better term -- over the last few seasons, and with a breakout 2024 campaign, this could be the last time we see him drafted outside of the first four rounds.
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