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Connelly's 2025 fantasy baseball SP sleepers, draft values and targets for 2025 drafts. He recommends targeting these starting pitcher sleepers as upside picks.
Having a roadmap to navigate fantasy drafts is a great way to develop a general approach while identifying relative pockets of value and weak points in the player pool.
It is always risky to base a draft roadmap around specific players, as no two drafts end up being the same. However, identifying certain players or batches of players can help fantasy managers focus on their desired direction.
Given early draft results, I identified four starting pitchers I am considering targeting in the 2025 draft. I chose these players because they are current draft values who are good, and I would happily roster them. However, these targets could change as we get more draft data.
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Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 104
A theme I will likely be taking into 2025 drafts is giving less consideration to pitcher injury risk due to the increasing number of injuries we have seen. Joe Ryan managed a solid 3.60 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 27.3% strikeout rate in 23 starts but missed the last two months with a right shoulder strain.
Ryan averaged about 26 starts in his three full seasons and owns a 3.92 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate in those seasons across 443 2/3 innings pitched. His heavy fastball use in the top of the zone and his various off-speed pitches have proven to be a recipe for success.
Ryan is currently being drafted toward the bottom of a group of pitchers who also have an injury history or have yielded inconsistent career results. This includes Max Fried at pick 103, Tyler Glasnow at pick 107, and Hunter Greene at pick 95.
One particularly interesting comparison is Ryan's rotation mate Bailey Ober, who is being drafted at pick 86. Ober had a solid 2024 season and pitched 43 more innings, but his ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate were all lacking compared to Ryan. Ober is a fine fantasy option, but I will take Ryan's upside over Ober's floor at a 20-pick discount.
Ryan is currently being drafted right after a group of pitchers who have longer injury histories or have not shown as much consistency. There are plenty of strong pitching options to choose from at this point in the draft, and Ryan seems to have the performance edge on most of them, even if he were to pitch slightly fewer innings.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 188
Cristopher Sanchez followed his encouraging 2023 season with his first All-Star nod in 2024. Sanchez made 31 starts over 181 2/3 IP with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 20.3% strikeout rate. He is currently being drafted as a middle-to-back-of-rotation fantasy starter. Why do I like him specifically?
While he only has a season and a half of a solid track record, Sanchez's pitching approach seems to offer a high fantasy floor. He is a groundball pitcher, relying heavily on his sinker. This can yield more base hits but results in less damaging contact.
He hasn't allowed a ton of contact for being a groundball pitcher, compiling an 11.3% swinging-strike rate. He did a great job limiting hard contact last season as well. Consequently, he pitched deep into games, averaging almost 6 IP/GS with 17 quality starts in 2024.
Sanchez's high floor and strong offense backing make him appealing in the range of pitchers where he is currently being drafted. Starters like Brandon Pfaadt, Sean Manaea, Luis Gil, and Taj Bradley all showed flashes of fantasy value last season but also had rough stretches. Sanchez offers less risk relatively.
It is worth noting that Seth Lugo and Zach Eflin offer similar profiles and are going ahead of Sanchez at picks 176 and 182. However, Lugo just posted a career season at age 35, and Eflin's batted-ball profile wasn't quite as strong as Sanchez's.
Fantasy managers should be taking risks at some point in their drafts, but crafting a strong pitching core should be a priority. Sanchez is currently being drafted around relatively high-risk/high-reward starters. He still offers upside but comes with a high floor, making him stand out.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
ADP: 236
If I told fantasy managers they could get a starter who just posted a 2.80 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 24.6% strikeout rate over 167 1/3 IP at pick 236, I think they would all be targeting him in their drafts regardless of any other circumstances. This is not currently happening with Ronel Blanco, which is making him a target for me.
Blanco came out of nowhere with a breakout season as a 30-year-old, and while his underlying metrics were not as strong as his peripherals, I still think he is being undervalued. He worked up in the zone with his fastball, generating a lot of non-damaging contact in the air. He paired that with strong swing-and-miss stuff from his off-speed pitches.
Play No. 46 of 2024: Ronel Blanco tosses a no-hitter in just his 8th career start 🔥 pic.twitter.com/fT8u4L6CNT
— MLB (@MLB) December 4, 2024
Blanco is currently being drafted around starters with serious injury issues or performance concerns. Like Joe Ryan, Blanco has a teammate being drafted ahead of him, Spencer Arrighetti, at pick 219. Arrighetti showed a higher strikeout upside and had a strong second half, but he allowed harder contact, leading to a 4.53 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP overall.
Fantasy managers expect Blanco to regress in 2025, which seems reasonable given how well he performed in 2024. However, they seem to be expecting significant regression, as indicated by his ADP. Pick 236 is towards the end of drafts, but I will take potentially 85% of what Blanco did last season over much greater unknowns.
Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 352
Picking for upside is a must at the end of 15-team league drafts and carries relatively less risk in shallower leagues. While several intriguing options are being drafted around him, I like Bubba Chandler as a lottery ticket for fantasy managers at the end of drafts this season.
The 22-year-old is one of baseball's top prospects, ranking as the Pirates' top prospect and the No. 15 overall prospect, per MLB Pipeline. He reached Triple-A Indianapolis last season, posting a 1.83 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 34.0% strikeout rate in 39 1/3 IP. He accumulated a decent workload, pitching 119 2/3 innings overall.
Bubba Chandler has been untouchable in Triple-A 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/FQAMm1ASb2
— Young Bucs (@YoungBucsPIT) August 29, 2024
The Pirates already have several top young pitchers in their big-league rotation, including Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. Both provided plenty of fantasy value last season, giving me hope that Chandler can follow in their footsteps.
Chandler's fantasy value requires that he be called up, but the Pirates don't have many reasons to keep him out of the big leagues. There are several pitching prospects in that range, with Jackson Jobe at pick 294 and Kumar Rocker at pick 324. Jobe is MLB Pipeline's top pitching prospect, but he pitched out of the bullpen when he got called up last season.
There are other interesting names going in this range, such as Merrill Kelly, Luis Severino, and Jesus Luzardo. However, fantasy managers may rather take a flyer on a high-upside prospect rather than a potential bounceback veteran. Chandler has plenty of appeal and comes at a discount to other similar prospects.
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