RADIO
Mark Strausberg highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 7/27/21, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
Good morning RotoBallers! I'm in a far better mood than I was last week, as I did turn a profit last night, the fifth or sixth time since last Tuesday. Just a reminder that you will get beat sometimes but you can and got to get right back up.
And I am ready to attack this full 15-game slate tonight we have here before us. But like last week, I'm not spending up on pitcher tonight. I will definitely be spending less than $9K on pitcher on tonight's slate. I think he will be fine, but ten-and-a-half K is a little much for McCullers in my humble opinion; Ray is coming off a mediocre start and the Boston bats are starting to heat up; Wainwright is averaging less than a strikeout an inning; and not only are the Orioles are fiesty enough to scare me but Alcantara hasn't struck out more than five batters in over five weeks.
Meanwhile, there are at least half a dozen lower-salaried pitchers that intrigue me. So which ones did I settle upon for tonight? See below for my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 7/27/2021.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
James Kaprielian OAK at SDP ($7,900)
I waffled on naming Kaprielian as a cash game option. For one, the Padres are pretty good. And two, has Kaprielian really proven himself enough? Does he give us a high enough floor as a cash game option?
Upon reflection, the answer is yes. He's given up three earned runs or less in 11 of 12 starts. He's gone five or more innings in 11 of 12 games started as well. I think that ends the floor discussion. But my guess is I am going to get far more resistance on the match-up. But don't rise out of your pews just yet, because believe it or, the Padres have been scuffling a little lately. Over the last seven days, San Diego has an OPS of just .641, fifth-worst in the league. They are also in a three-way tie for ninth-fewest HRs during that time. Finally, they also have the second-fewest runs during that time as well. So perhaps Kaprielian is catching them at just the right time.
And it's not like Kaprielian is just scraping by either. He has a 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 73 Ks in 68 IP. And those numbers are weighed down by one night when he gave up four runs and couldn't get out of the fourth inning. And that was his worst start. He only has one win over his last five starts, but he's also given up just eight runs total over those five starts. I'd like to see him pitch into the eighth inning to maybe top his season-high 10 Ks in a game, but the ceiling is absolutely there for Kap. Throw in his low price at just $7900 and he's hard not to play in your cash entries!
GPP Potential Alternate Play
Taylor Widener ARZ at TEX ($6,700)
As I mentioned there are a bunch of lower price options I like, but for my GPPs I'm looking for someone whose ownership will be low. And one of the best places to look is towards a team that is struggling this year. We look to the West, as Arizona is not going anywhere this year. However, there are some young pieces in place that might make Arizona a playoff contender next year and one of them is Widener. In fact, even some of the more arrogant experts out there have gone as far as touting him on social media:
Need a pivot at SP for tonight's DFS slate? Try Widener. Very sneaky!
— Mark Strausberg (@MarkStrausberg) July 20, 2021
Well, Widener was indeed a sneaky play as few would probably want to bring attention to his eight hits and five earned runs in not even five innings pitched. Yet, even in that dismal start, Widener still struck out eight batters! Even when he's having a bad night, he brings enough to make him start worthy. He still has a respectable 3.55 ERA and Texas is one of the better match-ups a pitcher can have.
As a team, the Rangers are hitting just .226, which is the fourth-worst on the majors. But they also have the eighth fewest HRs (110) in the league, averaging just 1.1 HRs/game. There's a reason they have the third-fewest runs in the league! Even though he currently has a HardHit% of 44.9%, Widener should be able to lower that number against the Rangers. And at less than $7K, he should return a profit and give us plenty of money to spend on some big bats.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Miguel Sano - 1B MIN vs DET ($2900)
But we are not splurging at first base. In fact, Sano is a high-risk play, but so is our decision to stack Twins tonight given the loss of Nelson Cruz last week. Minnesota got a good deal as they got some decent prospects in return, but Cruz was definitely one of the bigger boppers. But that now shifts the onus onto Sano.
Sano has seen a decrease in playing time lately, but with the exit of Cruz, he should now get more plate appearances. And we know Sano can wallop. He smacked 34 in baseball's last full season of 2019 and has 15 already this season. He will be facing Tiger starter Tyler Alexander, who is giving up over one and half home runs per nine. Wanna bet he gives up a big shot to Sano?
Eduardo Escobar - 2B/3B ARZ at TEX ($3000)
And Eduardo Escobar is just a hundred more than Sano, but brings even more production while not exactly breaking the bank either. I already discussed the Texas hitters, but Dane Dunning and his 4.30 ERA is not impressive either. Escobar meanwhile is very quietly having another great season, having swatted 22 HRs already. When you consider that Escobar has also been a tad unlucky (he has a BABIP of only .264), he will be on nearly all my entries tonight.
Trea Turner - SS WSH at PHI ($4,300)
Turner meanwhile will be an extremely chalky play, but I am more than happy to make him one of our expensive plays. Hitting .320 with 18 HRs, Turner would be a good play most nights, but with him slated to face Matt Moore and 5.79 ERA, this is an easy play. There is a reason I made him my cover player tonight.
If that's too rich for your blood, I'd go with the surprisingly cheap at $3400 Trevor Story or Jorge Polanco. Remember, I said I'm stacking Twins tonight. And that brings us to our next play in our Twins stack.
Josh Donaldson - 3B MIN vs DET ($3200)
I like getting a player with fifteen HRs already at just 3200 who also has the LvR advantage tonight. Donaldson will be teeing off against Tyler Alexander who has a 4.24 ERA and is seeing right-handers slug .520 against him. Since Cruz got traded on the 23rd of July, Donaldson has stepped up with five hits since then including a home run yesterday:
Fargo dinger #228 - Josh Donaldsonpic.twitter.com/WWjmH7iYEu
— Fargo Frostbite (@FargoFrostbite) July 27, 2021
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
So if you look at last week's article, I am recommending the same three players, but one of them is the aforementioned Cruz. But we start with the cheapest of the three.
Kyle Tucker - OF, HOU at SEA ($3500)
I put Tucker in here, but I probably should have just said "starting HOU OF" depending on your budget. If you need to save a few bucks, go with Michael Brantley. And if you have the salary to spare, spend a few hundred more on Yordan Alvarez. Opposing pitcher Chris Flexen has been pitching pretty well this season as evidenced by his 3.35 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. But he's also been a little lucky as evidenced by his xERA of 4.03 and xFIP of 4.60.
Tucker's power numbers meanwhile are extremely strong given his FanDuel price. He has a HardHit% just barely under fifty percent, with a max EV of 111.1 and a barrel percentage of nearly 12%. Seattle's ball park is a bit on the spacious side, but when you're destroying the ball like Tucker is, it doesn't matter where you play.
Nelson Cruz - OF, TBR vs NYY ($4000)
Speaking of where you play, Cruz has made himself right at home right away in the Rays lineup.
Well that didn't take long! ?
Nelson Cruz with his 1st hit as a @RaysBaseball shows off his power and goes yard! #RaysUp 4-0! pic.twitter.com/ivInHJFSRB
— Bally Sports Sun: Rays (@BallyRays) July 23, 2021
He has been punishing Cleveland since he arrived, having homered off of them twice in Cruz's last three games. I like Cruz to continue to smash, especially against "meh" pitcher Jordan Montgomery.
Bryce Harper - OF, PHI vs WSH ($4300)
Harper is also a few hundred more than he was last week. But Harper's opposing pitcher, Erick Fedde, makes Montgomery look like a Cy Young candidate. Fedde has a 4.88 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and just 64Ks in 72 IP. And some might say that Harper has the LvR advantage against Fedde as well. Fedde's splits are actually pretty similar whether he faces lefties or righties. But what can't be argued is that Harper has absolutely destroyed his former teammate. In fifteen at-bats against Fedde, Harper is hitting .400 against him with four round-trippers already. I'm thinking Harper might make it five tonight. And even if he doesn't, we should still expect a strong night from Harper.
Good luck with your entries!
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