FAAB Bidding - Week 15 Waiver Wire Targets

December 11, 2019

In fantasy football leagues that use FAAB (free agent acquisition budget), it can be hard to know how much money to spend on key players at QB, RB, WR, or TE. Nick Mariano gives fantasy owners his recommendations on how to spend FAAB for Week 15.

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be targeting to spend on a particular player. This changes in playoff weeks, where you simply do what you must and the amounts go up.

The playoffs are here and the injuries are fierce. There are several low-owned players thrust into prime playing time now, so mind leaguewide FAAB wallets and waiver tiebreak priorities. This is no time to be shy about team needs. To score that championship, here are our FAAB auction bidding recommendations for Week 15 below.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett (QB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 3-4%

37% owned

Brissett still showed limitations on his balky knee, but often avoided blitzes only to throw for big gains against Tampa Bay. His 251 yards and two TDs were joined by 26 rushing yards, good for a top-10 Week 14 performance. A Monday night game against New Orleans awaits him in Week 15, which should require loads of passing as Drew Brees goes all homefield primetime on us all.

Drew Lock (QB, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

2% owned

Lock went into Deshaun Watson’s house and tossed three TDs with 309 yards en route to a top-10 QB performance on the week. He came out swinging in his debut last week, but cooled after a hot first quarter. Lock’s trio of TDs led Denver to a 31-3 lead by halftime and could ease off the gas pedal, but Week 15 at Kansas City should require sustained effort. Those seeking a cheap streamer may want to Lock this in as he gains rapport with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant.

David Blough (QB, DET) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

1% owned

Blough hosts shootout maestros, the Bucs, next. He wasn’t as good in Week 14 (205 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs) as he was during his Thanksgiving debut (280 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT) but a road game versus the Vikings is a tall order. Coming back home to host Tampa Bay, a team that excels versus the run and stinks against the pass, plays into Blough’s favor. I’d expect Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to dominate TB’s corners and give Blough a chance at 250+ yards and two scores -- worthy of two-QB leagues and deep streamers.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Deandre Washington (RB, OAK) - FAAB Bid: 100%

4% owned

Josh Jacobs did everything he could to suit up in Week 14, but the doctors wouldn’t clear him. As a result, Washington played 40 of Oakland’s 63 snaps while Jalen Richard tagged in for 24. Richard’s 38% usage wasn’t far from the norm, and Alec Ingold didn’t log an increase either. Washington is the clear handcuff here -- a must-own for any team with Jacobs and a solid grab for anyone else in need of a flex.

Update: Josh Jacobs is now expected to return and play in Week 15. It is a situation to monitor.

Patrick Laird (RB, MIA) - FAAB Bid: 100%

20% owned

Laird’s snap share has gone from 12% in Week 10, to 23%, 37%, 60% last week with Kalen Ballage getting hurt and then 82% this Sunday. His 48 rush yards on 15 carries shouldn’t be surprising behind Miami’s awful line, but four catches for an additional 38 yards helped him deliver a top-24 line in half-PPR. The Dolphins have quietly ranked eighth in average pace of play, standing at 26.79 sec/play, and can generate enough mediocre volume to yield fantasy results. I know, I know -- don’t oversell it, Nick.

Adrian Peterson (RB, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 50-60%

39% owned

AD stepped up with 76 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries after Derrius Guice hurt his knee midgame. It’s worth noting Washington has faced awful run defenses the past two weeks in Carolina and Green Bay, while a top-10 run defense awaits in Week 15 with Philly. But Chris Thompson isn't going to eat into the precious red-zone carries and Philadelphia doesn't currently resemble a conquering force that'll take Washington's ground game out of the equation.

Update: Guice is officially done for the year and has been placed on IR.

Darwin Thompson (RB, KC) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%

19% owned

Darrel Williams is on the IR and Damien Williams was ruled out on Friday, meaning he wasn’t all that close to playing. The Chiefs signed Spencer Ware, who played on 40% of the snaps in Week 14 but only had two total yards on six touches. LeSean McCoy turned 31% of the snaps into 43 yards on 12 touches while Thompson parlayed 27% into 43 yards on eight touches. Overall, it’s an unfortunate committee on a supreme offense. Temper expectations and hope for a late score.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown (WR, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 50-60%

26% owned

I nearly skipped checking Brown’s ownership, thinking that he’d undoubtedly be out of range. Lo and behold, he’s available in three-fourths of fantasy leagues after posting an absurd 5-153-2 line on seven targets. This comes two weeks after he burned Jacksonville for 135 yards and a score, as Ryan Tannehill’s insane aggression has helped forge a big-play receiver. Tennessee still doesn’t pass much, so Brown’s floor is relatively low on 4-7 targets per week, but Tannehill’s league-leading 9.8 yards per attempt is here to save the day.

Allen Hurns (WR, MIA) - FAAB Bid: 30-40%

1% owned

Both Devante Parker and Albert Wilson left Week 14 with concussions, leaving Hurns and Isaiah Ford to serve as leading WRs. Hurns had 5-68-0 on eight targets and Ford on 6-92-0 on nine looks, with both in solid spots for a Week 15 date against the Giants’ susceptible secondary. I doubt Jason Sanders is left to kick seven field goals again next week, with some of those possessions likely finding paydirt instead.

Breshad Perriman (WR, TB) - FAAB Bid: 30-40%

0% owned

Perriman posted a season-high 83% snap rate after Mike Evans suffered a hamstring injury on a 61-yard TD. Evans is doubtful for Week 15 and while Justin Watson (also 0%) stepped up with his own 5-59-1 line, Perriman has been working ahead of him this season. It helps that he had five catches for 87 yards in Week 13 too, giving Bruce Arians a reason to trust him for Week 15’s script against Detroit. Even if you doubt Detroit’s ability to keep up with Tampa Bay, the Bucs lead the NFL in pace of play while leading by seven or more at 25.59 sec/play. I’m not worried about them shutting down with a lead.

Update: Mike Evans is officially done for the year.

Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%

9% owned

With Calvin Ridley out for the season, Gage should step up as Atlanta's primary No. 2 receiver. He may compete with Christian Blake or even Olamide Zaccheaus for those honors long-term, but Julio Jones isn't 100% and Austin Hooper just returned from a multi-week injury. Atlanta faces San Francisco in Week 15, but the Falcons feast in garbage time and fantasy awards no penalty for points accrued in the fourth quarter against backups. Regardless, you're buying the role here on a pass-happy team.

Darius Slayton (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%

26% owned

Slayton embarrassed the Eagles in the first half on Monday night, totaling 154 yards and two touchdowns on five catches. It seems Slayton didn't need Daniel Jones to garner attention, as he stood out above Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard. A date with Miami's cushy secondary awaits in Week 15, making Slayton a solid flex play as he'll look to build on his second two-TD game of the last four weeks.

Chris Conley (WR, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%

20% owned

Conley only saw three targets in a 45-10 loss to the Chargers, but Jacksonville struggled all-around. Only D.J. Chark topped 30 yards in the passing game, but he’s now week-to-week with an ankle sprain and had to leave the locker room on a scooter. LAC’s secondary is a much tougher assignment than Oakland, who got torched by A.J. Brown last week. The Chargers have given up the fourth fewest fantasy points to WRs on average, while Oakland is up with the 12th most.

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%

20% owned

Miller has produced over 10 PPR points in four straight games, perhaps finally delivering on his prospect tout down the stretch. Chicago will have to keep pace with Green Bay and Kansas City in Weeks 15 and 16, which paints a pass-happy picture. Mitch Trubisky appears to have regained his confidence and Miller is a beneficiary of Trubs’ pushing the ball downfield. He’s a comfortable flex play in 12-14 team leagues, settling in my WR40-45 range for Week 15.

Marcus Johnson (WR, IND) - FAAB Bid: 15-20%

0% owned

The Colts are unlikely to get a 100% T.Y. Hilton back for Week 15 at New Orleans, if he suits up at all. Parris Campbell broke his foot last Sunday and has been placed on IR, meaning Johnson should line up with Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle as Jacoby Brissett’s receiving options in the Superdome. Johnson secured a 46-yard TD alongside a 50-yard reception for a nifty 3-105-1 line in all. If you can scoop Zach Pascal (35%) then go for it, but I’m trying to raise alarm about the lesser-known commodity.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR) - FAAB Bid: 30-35%

11% owned

Higbee once again impressed, topping 100 yards in his second straight game with Gerald Everett out. Not just a one-time wonder against Arizona’s porous defense, Higbee followed up his 7-107-1 line with 7-116-0 against Seattle on 11 targets. He’s operating as the No. 2 option behind Robert Woods right now, with Brandin Cooks rarely seen and Cooper Kupp yielding mediocre results.

David Njoku (TE, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 15-20%

37% owned

Njoku quietly returned to action in Week 14, with a four-yard catch to show for his day. He’d been out since Week 2 with a wrist injury and gets Arizona’s flow-chart defense in Week 15. He’s merely a one-week rental at best with Baltimore coming to town for Week 16, but that’s a luxury-car level rental at an economy-class rate.

Noah Fant (TE, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 8-10%

28% owned

Reportedly okay after getting his foot stepped on towards the end of Week 14, Fant popped with 113 yards and a touchdown on four catches. He’d shown the big-play ability earlier with Brandon Allen, but a measly five yards in Lock’s first game last week caused alarm. He needs that athleticism to produce given his usually 4-5 targets per game, though keeping up with KC in Week 15 will hopefully call for a higher gear.

Ian Thomas (TE, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 5-6%

1% owned

Thomas turned in a top-10 week with a whopping 10 targets in Week 14, honoring the injured Greg Olsen with a 5-57-1 line against the Falcons. Perhaps Olsen suits up in Week 15 against Seattle, but Thomas is worth squirreling away just in case with double-digit targets on the table.

Josh Hill (TE, NO) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Kaden Smith (TE, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Hayden Hurst (TE, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

If Jared Cook, Evan Engram and/or Mark Andrews can’t go next week, then please note these fine fellows. Kaden Smith appears most likely to stay relevant with Engram potentially facing surgery.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs Defense (vs DEN) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

30% owned

Say what you will about Drew Lock’s emergence, as I did earlier, but going into Arrowhead Stadium is tough for anyone, let alone a rookie. And the Chiefs’ recent defensive momentum held true through a journey to Foxborough, as KC has held the Chargers, Raiders and Patriots to 17 points or fewer in each of their last three games. With seven sacks and eight turnovers in that span, a rolling unit may be able to take advantage of an aggressive rookie in Lock.

Detroit Lions Defense (at TB) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

14% owned

When in doubt, you stream against the Bucs. Jameis Winston lit up the Colts for 38 points in a win and still yielded 11 fantasy points to its defense. That's it, end of story.

New York Giants Defense (vs MIA) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

6% owned

I know, I’d hate it too. But the Giants are facing Miami and Washington in Weeks 15 and 16 -- that’s as good as it gets matchup-wise. Lest we forget that the Giants limited Washington to a mere field goal in Week 4, tallying four total picks en route to a 24-3 victory. We must note that Case Keenum was injured and Haskins hadn’t been fully prepped with the starters, but we haven’t seen Haskins grow as a passer anyway.

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