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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 15 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
It has all come down to this. chrismiller19 leads the group with 537 points. Cliff316 is six points back. Littlemy sits in the last cutoff spot for RotoBaller prizes with PAPIPEREZ just one point behind. Only two more entries were within 14 points, so it looks like a five-entry race for three slots.
Littlemy led the group with 48 points last week and used that to get into third place. YoungsterBiggie had 47 points. PAPIPEREZ and Kingrah23 both finished with 46 points last week. We only have nine games to choose from this week, so we only have 45 points to play with.
There are still 15 entries between 500 and 515 points. All of those entries still have a chance to crawl into prize position, but they'll need some help from bad weeks for those in front of them.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Six of the nine conference championship games are rematches. Good luck out there, RotoBallers!
(1) BYU over Texas Tech
I'm to the point where I'm just picking what I want to see happen. I don't have a chance to crawl back into this. This is nothing against Texas Tech. I think they are one of the most complete teams in college. This is in the name of what's right.
Looking back at the LAST 30 YEARS, no 1-loss P4/P5 team has ever been ranked as low as BYU at #11 in the AP poll at the end of the regular season
All other year's lowest-ranked 1-loss teams ended with an AP ranking between #3-10, & there's a strong correlation between better AP… pic.twitter.com/pQkTxz8QCE
— Jeff Fuller (@jjfuller72) December 2, 2025
The Big 12 faces an existential crisis. They just had a group of people in suits tell them that going 11-1 in a supposed major conference with the only loss to a top-5 team on the road, that they don't deserve a spot in a 12-team playoff. It's short-sighted and wrong on the part of the committee if you're telling a team from a power conference that they can't lose...especially when the conference has four ranked teams in it.
I'll go ahead and let you know that we are going to see some of the worst officiating since last year's playoff this weekend. It's the only way that the conferences can try to control what happens. The Big 12 has a heavily vested interest in getting two teams in. The committee won't do the right thing, so the conference might.
BYU has a healthy LJ Martin and is not playing in Lubbock this time, so this isn't completely out of left field. The committee bullied the Big 12 into a corner. The only way out is if BYU wins this game. That's enough for me to try to steal a point.
(2) Georgia over Alabama
This could be another issue for the CFP. They are on record saying that idle teams CAN move this year, and that teams involved in conference championship games CAN be left out for a loss. The message is clear: win or else.
Some believe this only applies to BYU. It might pertain to Alabama as well. The committee moved Alabama up for blowing a big lead against Auburn and having to come back to win. That's ridiculous. Let's just call it what it was: insurance.
The committee can keep its word by "dropping" Alabama back to 10 (where they have been for weeks) and still keep them in the CFP, while simultaneously freezing out BYU or cratering Texas Tech's ranking with a loss.
Another Georgia loss makes life easy for the CFP because no one is saying that a two-loss Georgia shouldn't be in. Both were good losses. The bad part is, it's really hard to beat a good team twice in one season. That's why I'm backing Georgia.
(3) North Texas over Tulane
This one is fun because North Texas is undefeated on the road and Tulane is undefeated at home, including wins over Duke and Northwestern that were so impressive that they got to sit at the adults' table before the rest of the Group of 5's existence was even acknowledged.
It's Drew Mestemaker against Jake Retzlaff. It's two coaches onto bigger and better things, taking one last ride with their current teams. What more can you ask for?
(4) Indiana over Ohio State
I want to move this one down because it is the most meaningless 1 vs. 2 matchup in the history of any sport. Winner gets a bye. The loser gets a bye and an easier path to the title. There is more incentive to lose this game than to win it. Isn't college football fun?
Curt Cignetti attacks everything like a pitbull on a poodle. Ohio State couldn't care less. They're focused on the big picture, not a meaningless conference cash grab.
(5) Western Michigan over Miami (OH)
Who would have thought that the Ohio version of Miami would be the one participating in Championship Week? This is a rematch of a game from about a month ago. Miami won the game in Oxford, but they also won with (and because of) quarterback Dequan Finn.
Finn left the team in preparation for the NFL combine. That leaves Miami with Thomas Gotkowski at quarterback. He looked good in wins over Ball State and Buffalo, but Ball State and Buffalo aren't Western Michigan.
(6) Jacksonville State over Kennesaw State
This game took place in the exact venue three weeks ago with the same personnel. We should get the same result.
(7) Boise State over UNLV
Boise blew out UNLV in October in Albertsons Stadium, but UNLV was without RB Jai'Den Thomas. I'd hate to be the one to break it to them, but not having Jet Thomas wasn't why UNLV lost. It was Maddux Madsen having his way with the UNLV secondary.
Last time Maddux Madsen played UNLV:
253 yards
4 TD
86.5 PFF GradeIn his career against UNLV:
60%
207 YPG
6 TD
1 INT90 rushing yards
2 rushing TDs pic.twitter.com/LXp2cPkaq4— Nathan Carroll (@Nathan_26_) December 1, 2025
Which, by the way, Madsen is expected to return to Boise this week. The Broncos have a very outside shot at another CFP berth. It all starts with a win here.
UNLV's issues this year have all been caused by the defense's inability to stop anyone. It wasn't just Madsen. RB Dylan Riley ran for 201 yards on just 15 carries.
(8) Virginia over Duke
Do I want Duke to win? Yeah! I think having two teams (that are never invited to anything) getting to the College Football Playoff would be good for the sport. Do I think it will happen? Not a chance.
Virginia throttled Duke three weeks ago in Durham. Is Duke going to be 18 points better just because they're playing in Charlotte? No. There's a reason Duke lost all three non-conference games vs. FBS teams.
(9) James Madison over Troy
Goose Crowder is back for the Trojans, but I feel the talent discrepancy is too large. Besides, this is the most significant game in James Madison's history. They're not blowing this.
