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The EPL season is underway and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 4 kicks off on Saturday, September 14 with Southampton hosting Manchester United. It culminates on Sunday, Sept. 15 when Newcastle United visits Wolves.
As we did last season, we'll offer a preview of every game. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 3 Recap
Another week, another near miss. Manchester United failing to score at home cost us a parlay which hurt even more given all the other 19 EPL teams scored a fortnight ago. We also narrowly missed out on the moneyline parlay when Fulham were held to a draw at Ipswich Town.
Hopefully, the international break resets our luck and we can kick-start our season.
Saturday, September 14, 2024
Southampton (+330) vs. Manchester United (-135) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
The Saints are one of only two teams without a point so far. They haven't been embarrassed in any game but their only goal so far was a late consolation at Brentford. United went into the international break following back-to-back defeats and don't look any better than they did last season.
Score prediction: Southampton 1 – 2 Manchester United
Although I expect Manchester United to win, I'm not confident enough to back them. Southampton will have benefited from the break and will look to exploit United's creaky defense. New defensive faces at Old Trafford will need to find some form soon. Until they do. I'll be backing both teams to score.
Ronald Koeman said that he took Mattihjs de Ligt off at half-time during the Netherlands' 2-2 draw with Germany last night to "protect" him.
Koeman added that "he is now in a period where all his mistakes are being punished." https://t.co/M3P6TDDEnF
— Jonty Colman (@JontyColman) September 11, 2024
Brighton (-285) vs. Ipswich Town (+700) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Brighton's controversial point at Arsenal kept their unbeaten start to the season alive. Ipswich managed to pick up their first point of the season. And after such a tough first two opening games, things don't get much easier for the Tractor Boys.
Score prediction: Brighton 3 – 1 Ipswich Town
It's difficult to see anything other than a comfortable home win. Ipswich gifted Manchester City goals in their only other away fixture, and Brighton has the players to take advantage of any slip-ups. Kaoru Mitoma is also my favorite fantasy play this week, so I expect a big game from him.
Crystal Palace (-170) vs. Leicester City (+425) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
After a couple of tough losses to start the season, Palace got a credible point at Chelsea to get their season started. Leicester followed their opening weekend draw with back-to-back defeats. But they received positive news that they won't be hit with a points deduction for financial rule breaches.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – 0 Leicester City
While Leicester fans will have breathed a sigh of relief following the news, there's little to believe they'll get something from this game. Palace will have regrouped after a tough transfer window, and the uber-talented Eberechi Eze will be instrumental in a home win.
"Leicester have successfully argued that they were in the Championship when they were alleged to have breached Premier League rules" 🔵
Jamie Weir takes a look at how Leicester won their PSR appeal 👇 pic.twitter.com/f4Fn2JDaIP
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) September 4, 2024
Fulham (+140) vs. West Ham United (+185) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Fulham's had a solid if unspectacular start to the season. They could have had more than the four points they've taken so far if they were more clinical. It's tough to gauge where West Ham is right now, given they've lost two tough home games but beat Palace on the road.
Score prediction: Fulham 2 – 1 West Ham United
Although I'm going with a home win, it's with little confidence. I can certainly see West Ham taking at least a point. Whether the points are shared or if there is a winner, both teams will more than likely score. That's occurred in two of the three games each team has played so far and is my pick for the game.
Liverpool (-475) vs. Nottingham Forest (+1000) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Liverpool cantered to their third straight win to begin the season when beating Manchester United. They are the only side yet to concede this season. Forest has yet to taste defeat but now faces their toughest assignment. They haven't won a league game at Anfield since 1978.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Forest has the players to trouble Liverpool, and I can envisage them finally breaching Alisson Becker's goal. As well as three clean sheets, Liverpool have also scored at least two in all of their games. We should see at least three goals in this one. I'll be backing the over for total goals.
Manchester City (-575) vs. Brentford (+1100) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
The City machine marched one with Erling Haaland, making it back-to-back hat-tricks before the international break. Brentford didn't let the departure of Ivan Toney unsettle them, as they picked up their second win of the season two weeks ago. Both of their wins have come at home, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 – 0 Brentford
Brentford could cause City some troubles on the counter-attack, and there's a strong case to be made for them to score. City scored at least twice in 14 of their 19 home games last season and have averaged three goals a game so far. I'm more confident backing that we see at least three goals in this game.
Erling Haaland has accumulated more xG this season than:
◎ Newcastle
◎ Fulham
◎ Wolves
◎ Crystal Palace
◎ Everton
◎ Southampton
◎ Leicester
◎ IpswichOr, 40% of the Premier League clubs.
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) September 9, 2024
Aston Villa (-220) vs. Everton (+550) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
Villa has taken six points from three games without fully clicking into gear. Their foray into the Champions League begins in midweek, but Unai Emery will know the importance of going into the game with momentum. Everton can be summed up by the last 10 minutes of their previous game...
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 0 Everton
While I expect Everton to react to their shocking defeat a fortnight ago, I cannot make a case for them to get anything. Villa will have too much for them, and even at these odds, a home win is too good to pass up.
Bournemouth (+225) vs. Chelsea (+100) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Bournemouth's incredible late comeback at Everton gave the Cherries a first league win of the season and maintained their unbeaten start. Chelsea reminded everyone of their unpredictability. After putting six past Wolves, Crystal Palace held them at home, leaving them with just four points.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 – 1 Chelsea
No one knows what to expect from this Chelsea team. As much as the odds of a home win are tempting, I wouldn't parlay that. So I'm taking over 2.5 goals given Chelsea's propensity to score and inability to keep a clean sheet. Both teams scoring is also very much on the cards.
Chelsea created more xG in their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace (2.42) than in their 6-2 win against Wolves (1.65).
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) September 1, 2024
Sunday, September 15, 2024
Tottenham Hotspur (+245) vs. Arsenal (+100) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Tottenham has begun the season doing Tottenham things. A 4-0 win against Everton was followed up by them somehow losing at Newcastle. Arsenal will still be smarting from their draw against Brighton. But their biggest issue right now is dealing with a depleted midfield.
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 2 Arsenal
Given the Gunners will be without Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard (among others), there's a strong case to be made for a home win. This has been one of the most unpredictable games in Premier League history. One thing this game almost always has is plenty of goals. That's what we're going with.
Arsenal going without Odegaard and Rice will be tough for the NLD.
Replacing that passing will be tough. pic.twitter.com/neQ0MOexPy
— Scott Willis (@scottjwillis) September 11, 2024
Wolves (+220) vs. Newcastle United (+100) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
After being humbled at home by Chelsea, Wolves will have been glad to get a point before the international break. Despite having a negative xGD (expected goal difference), Newcastle heads into this game unbeaten. They also don't have any midweek European games to distract them.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 – 1 Newcastle United
No side has a tougher opening few games than Wolves. They will see this as an opportunity to put their previous home game behind them and get a much-needed win. Newcastle's luck will run out but they still have enough to win this game. It's tough to call but both teams scoring looks likely.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Southampton 1 – 2 Man United | Man Utd -135 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -170 |
| Brighton 3 – 1 Ipswich | Brighton -285 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -120 |
| Crystal Palace 2 – 0 Leicester | C. Palace -170 | U2.5 +105 | No +100 |
| Fulham 2 – 1 West Ham | Fulham +140 | O2.5 -150 | Yes -190 |
| Liverpool 3 – 1 N. Forest | Liverpool -475 | O2.5 -250 | Yes -110 |
| Man City 3 – 0 Brentford | Man City -575 | O2.5 -320 | No -115 |
| Aston Villa 2 – 0 Everton | A. Villa -220 | U2.5 +115 | No +100 |
| Bournemouth 2 – 1 Chelsea | Bournemouth +225 | O2.5 -210 | Yes -230 |
| Tottenham 2 – 2 Arsenal | Draw +270 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -205 |
| Wolves 1 – 1 Newcastle | Draw +270 | U2.5 +150 | Yes -240 |
| Season totals | 14/30 | 11/30 | 15/30 |
| Season parlays | 0/3 (-3.00u) | 0/3 (-3.00u) | 0/3 (-3.00u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
