EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchweek 30: English Premier League

April 6, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 30 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 04/08/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts and looking at the best options for your lineups

We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

After a strange couple of weeks with lopsided fixtures which sandwiched an international break, we're back to some semblance of normality with ten games over two days. There's still everything to play for at both ends of the table as we enter the final stretch and the next two weekends could have a huge impact on where the title ends up. We have now incorporated highlights for each team's last fixture, which you can see by clicking the team name in the game preview heading.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

Saturday, April 08th, 2023

Everton (+550) at Manchester United (-205) 7:30 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Everton

Manchester United got their top-4 bid back on track with a midweek 1-0 win at home to Brentford. Their last two away games have seen them lose 7-0 and 2-0 but they've now kept three straight clean sheets at home and haven't been beaten at Old Trafford since the opening game of the season. Everton battled to a 1-1 draw against Tottenham on Monday, but in a similar vein to this weekend's opponents, they have been chalk'n'chesse at home and away. In their four away games since Sean Dyche took over, they've picked up two points and conceded ten goals.

I don't see any Everton player having any appeal this week, especially with Abdoulaye Doucouré suspended. United has plenty of options, none more so than Marcus Rashford. He ended his three-game drought in midweek and has now scored eight goals (and two assists) in eight home games since the World Cup. Bruno Fernandes has now gone four games without a goal involvement but they do offer up an interesting option as you'll find out later in the article.

Nottingham Forest (+425) at Aston Villa (-160) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 - 0 Nottingham Forest

Villa's impressive run continued with a third consecutive win in midweek and they have an outside chance of making the European qualification places. They've scored in 16 straight league games, scored two or more in four of their last five games and kept a clean sheet in back-to-back home games. Forest lost again in midweek and has now picked up just six points in their 14 away games this season while scoring just five times (both are league-worst). The 34 goals conceded on their travels is the second-most in the league.

Forest is a fade in FPL whenever they are away from home but Villa has some intriguing plays. Headlined by Ollie Watkins who has eight goals and two assists in his last ten games, averaging 7.2 points per game in that run. Defender Alex Moreno has started Villa's last five games, scoring 27 points and has 2.3 expected goal involvements (xGI) in just seven starts since joining the club. Emi Buendia, Douglas Luiz and Jacob Ramsey all have two goal involvements in their last three games and make solid plays also.

Newcastle United (+115) at Brentford (+245) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 2 Newcastle United

Brentford has now won just once in their last five games and kept one clean sheet in their last eight. They have lost just once at home this season and that was against table-toppers Arsenal. Newcastle enters the weekend on the back of a four-game winning streak in which they've scored 11 goals but kept just one clean sheet. I certainly don't like the idea of writing off Brentford's chances at home but Newcastle is in a great run of form and I fancy they edge this.

There are plenty of FPL options in this game, with Ivan Toney being the main draw for the home team. He's got four goals and one assist in his last eight EPL games with eight goals and two assists in his 13 home appearances. Strike partner Bryan Mbeumo has 11 goal involvements this season with eight of them coming at home while midfielder Mathias Jensen is averaging 4.8 points a game since the World Cup and has 32 points in his last six games. I'm not looking at any Brentford defender against such an in-form attacking unit.

Newcastle has the excellent problem of having two strikers scoring goals in Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson. The problem for FPL managers is they only start one of them the majority of the time. Isak has four goals in four games (three starts) while Wilson has three goals in two games (one start). I'd lean towards Isak given he came off the bench on Wednesday but it's a crapshoot as to who you want to start. Kieran Trippier remains the league's premium attacking defender with two assists in the last four games and there is a midfield option that will feature later in the piece.

West Ham United (+165) at Fulham (+175) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 West Ham United

It's been a tumultuous time recently for these two teams. Fulham's FA Cup exit saw top scorer Aleksandar Mitrović sent off and he's now been handed an eight-game suspension for pushing the referee. They come into this game having lost their last three EPL games. West Ham failed to build on their previous two games, in which they picked up four points, when they lost 5-1 at home to Newcastle on Wednesday and no team has picked up fewer than the six points West Ham have won on their travels.

Fulham's Andreas Pereira has three goal involvements in the last three games and 13 on the season so is a worthwhile FPL option, especially at his price (£4.3M). Manor Solomon scored in four consecutive league games but has done nothing in his last two so isn't someone I'm looking to bring into my team but I would consider starting if I roster him already. The only West Ham player I'm playing this week is Jarrod Bowen, who picked up his sixth assist of the season in midweek (along with four goals). Bowen's 11.67 xGI leads the team and ranks eighth among all FPL midfielders.

Bournemouth (+320) at Leicester City (-115) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 1 Bournemouth

Leicester finds themselves in the relegation zone, without a win in seven games (losing six of them) and without a manager following the departure of Brendan Rodgers. But, they have scored in each of their last four games and face a team that has lost eight of their last nine away games, failing to score in six of them and with the worst defensive record on their travels (38 goals conceded in 14 games). This is set to be an edgy game and as long as Leicester doesn't fall behind and get the crowd on their backs, I fancy them to pull out a win.

There are only two players I'm willing to consider for Leicester this weekend, although they both feature in the latter part of the article and aren't sure things in FPL. For Bournemouth, Philip Billing is the only player that carries any sort of appeal given his six goals from midfield and his height carrying a significant threat from set-pieces. But he's more a dart throw than anything else away from home.

Brighton (+160) at Tottenham (+165) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 2 Brighton

Tottenham is another side that comes into the weekend without a permanent manager and back-to-back draws have them looking up at the top-4 and in need of a run of form if they are to qualify for next season's Champions League. Brighton continues to surge toward European qualification and comes into this game on the back of a five-game unbeaten run. This is the first of five games against the five sides above them in the league in their last 11 matches but having scored 12 goals in their last five games, they'll be full of confidence.

Tottenham's FPL plays start with Harry Kane and doesn't really go much further. The England captain drew criticism for his antics in their draw at Everton but he still scored a penalty and only Erling Haaland (203) has more points than Kane (189) this season. Pedro Porro does offer us some intrigue given his attacking play as a defender and has one goal and one assist in his last four games, all of which he's started.

For Brighton, they have an abundance of midfield threats, with Karou Mitoma, Alexis Mac Allister, Pascal Groß and Solly March all scoring over 100 points this season. One of them also features as my lock of the week. Read on to find out who. Teenage forward Evan Ferguson has looked excellent but is being carefully managed so isn't a lock to start and only five teams have conceded more than Brighton (20) on the road this season so their defenders and 'keeper don't carry much appeal this weekend.

Chelsea (+100) at Wolves (+295) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Chelsea

Wolves picked up a late point at Nottingham Forest last weekend but they remain one point outside the relegation zone and with just one win in their last seven games. Chelsea's dumpster fire of a season continues with their weekend loss at home to Aston Villa followed up by a goalless draw with Liverpool on Tuesday. They have appointed former boss Frank Lampard as caretaker manager until the end of the season when they will be seeking their third permanent boss in less than three years since sacking Frank Lampard in 2021.

This is a fixture I'm happy to avoid entirely in FPL. Wolves only player with 100+ FPL points this season is goalkeeper José Sá, but he has just one clean sheet in his last eight games. Chelsea cannot score a goal for love nor money right now. Despite failing to score in their last two games, Chelsea has an expected goals (xG) total of 4.71 and while I do believe they find the net this week, who scores it and how they score is not something I have any good feeling over.

Manchester City (-390) at Southampton (+1000) 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Southampton 0 - 2 Manchester City

Two points from their last four games have left Southampton in serious danger of relegation as they find themselves bottom of the league and four points from safety. They've scored just six goals in their last ten games and three of them came in one game against Tottenham. That's the only time in their last 11 home games in which they've scored more than once. City keeps pressuring Arsenal at the top of the table following their fourth successive league win last weekend and picked up 25 points from the last 27 available.

Southampton is an easy fade in all formats this weekend. Manchester City has to face Bayern Munich in midweek as they seek their first Champions League crown so they may once again look to utilize their immense squad depth and make some changes to the starting XI. Erling Haaland is the league's top scorer and highest points scorer in FPL but is carrying a knock that saw him miss last weekend's game while Phil Foden is out injured. Jack Grealish is a likely starter and following his goal and assist last weekend, is worth gambling on this weekend. City also has my trap of the week...

Sunday, April 09th, 2023

Crystal Palace (+255) at Leeds United (+110) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Crystal Palace

Leeds' come-from-behind win on Tuesday saw them move out of the relegation zone and they've now taken seven points from their last four games with the 4-1 defeat to Arsenal their only real blemish. Palace ended a 12-game winless run last weekend when they beat Leicester City 2-1 and the 20 shots they registered in the first half of that game were the most any team has had in one half of an EPL game since December 2015.

Leeds' Jack Harrison continued his good form with a goal in midweek and now has three goals and two assists in his last six games. At £5.7M and on just 2.6% of FPL teams, he is the sole player from this game I'd been keen to roster. Despite Palace's shot bombardment last weekend, I'm still not prepared to start any of their players yet, especially after Wilfried Zaha picked up an injury and is set to miss this weekend's game.

Arsenal (+140) at Liverpool (+175) 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 1 Arsenal

Liverpool will be desperate to get back to playing at home as their three-game away run saw them pick up one point and score one goal. They've won their last three home games, scoring 11 and not conceding. Arsenal's recent record at Liverpool has been dreadful, losing on their last six visits with an aggregate score of 22-4. But they've seldom gone into this fixture in such good form, having won seven league games in a row, scoring 23 goals in the process. I just feel Anfield will play a big part in this and the home side edge things.

There are so many FPL options in this game, I don't think you can really go wrong. Mo Salah loves scoring against Arsenal having scored seven times in 11 EPL meetings while Roberto Firmino has scored ten times in his 14 meetings with Arsenal. He's no guarantee to start with Darwin Nunez set to lead the line and he scored in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

While I don't think Arsenal will win the game, it's difficult not to start any of their players if you roster them already. Bukayo Saka (171), Gabriel Martinelli (162) and Martin Ødegaard (159) all rank in the top-5 of points scored by midfielders. Last weekend, Gabriel Jesus started for the first time since recovering from his knee injury sustained at the World Cup and he scored twice. Jesus could be the deciding factor this weekend and in the remainder of the season.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals and both teams to score).

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks

This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.

Stack the D

Manchester United doesn't have much attacking appeal outside of Marcus Rashford so stacking a couple of their defenders (or one with David De Gea) this week makes a lot of sense. United's defensive record at home and Everton's struggles to score, especially away from home, make them one of the likeliest teams to keep a clean sheet this weekend.

Unloved nuggets

Joe Willock is currently on less than 1.0% of FPL rosters and has three goal involvements in his last three starts. He came off the bench in midweek but is likely to start on Saturday and only the injured Miguel Almirón (136) has more points than Willock (98) among their midfielders and forwards. He should score more goals than he does, as evidenced by his 6.0 xG compared to the three goals he has scored. But he's in decent form and that could easily continue this week making him an excellent pivot play at just £4.7M.

Avoid the trap

Kevin de Bruyne remains the second most expensive player in FPL at £12.0M and is the seventh most rostered midfielder (currently on 24.5% of teams). But, I'm not convinced he even starts this weekend's game and he's not justified his price tag so far. He's started alternate games over the last four EPL fixtures and started last weekend's game. With the Champions League clash in midweek, City may opt to keep him fresh for that.

And while de Bruyne has five goals and 14 assists this season, he's not started City's last two away games and has failed to have a goal involvement in four of the six away games he has started since the World Cup. This feels like a weekend in which City rests their star midfielder and his away form is such that I wouldn't be overly keen on playing him even if he does start. The problem is, if you roster him, do you have better options at your disposal so you'd be confident in benching him?

For the watchlist

I don't know how Leicester will perform over the coming weeks. But I do know, if they find their mojo, James Maddison and Harvey Barnes will be among the goals. Maddison has nine goals and six assists in just 21 starts this season while Barnes has ten goals and two assists in 26 starts. I need to see improvements in Leicester's play before I pull the trigger but if I get a glimpse of some positivity this weekend, one of them may find their way onto my team in the next week or two.

Lock of the week

Kaoru Mitoma has been a revelation and since the World Cup, the Brighton man has scored six goals with five assists (13 games). In his last five games, Mitoma has two goals and four assists, averaging 7.8 points in that run. He's had a goal involvement in four of his last five away games and given Brighton and Tottenham's respective form, Mitoma is my lock to add to his goals and/or assists tally this weekend.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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