Tight End Risers for 2022 Fantasy Football Drafts - ADP Analysis

June 23, 2022

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of three tight ends from mid-May to mid-June and assesses their situations and the reasons behind those moves.

Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-May to mid-June using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three tight end risers.

Tight End Fantasy Football ADP Risers

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No tight end will ever get a bump up in ADP such as the one Brate has experienced of late... without even having to get up from his couch. The key here, of course, is the fact that there always were question marks floating above Rob Gronkowski's head regarding the future of the veteran TE and Tom Brady's BFF. Well, all of those questions vanished at the start of this week with Gronk confirming his (second) retirement. That alone opens a huge hole in the Bucs offense at the TE position, and Cameron Brate is the next-in-line player at the position to fill Gronk's shoes, so you do the math.

Brate is all of a sudden Tampa's TE1 with tons of upside if only because he'll have Tom Brady tossing him the rock. No joke. Brate was a value in drafts even with Gronk out assuming the latter would miss time at some point and skip some weeks, but he's now a legit must-draft going for peanuts. Even though the ADP has sky-rocketed through the past few weeks, days, and mostly hours--and it will definitely keep on doing--if your league has the draft scheduled to take place soon and you can still find Brate available as late as with his near-200th overall ADP you can definitely fear nothing and grab him without hesitation. A real threat to enter the TE1 realm and a virtual lock for a TE2 finish no matter what happens next--that is, obviously, before Gronk announces his un-retirement and gets back for a final run...

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Kmet's ADP has only gone half a round up in the past few weeks, but the trend is steady, slowly but surely, always going upwards. Veteran Jimmy Graham is finally gone from the Bears' depth chart, and the TE position is all for Kmet to finally takeover in a full-time role eating all of the targets QB Justin Fields decides to feed him. Even though the Bears have shuffled the receiving corps, the truth is that none of the additions can be considered a true target-hog-in-the-making. We're talking about Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, and rookie Velus Jones...

Nothing in particular (an injury, or something of the like) has impacted ADP in the past few weeks as to make this rise pop up out of left field. It's more of a natural, logical development in Kmet's career and how fantasy GMs assess his talent and skill set. Kmet started only nine games as a rookie two years ago and was a true fantasy afterthought (3.9 FPPG), but already "started" all 17 last season finishing as the TE20 most hurt by his zero touchdowns. Without any other legit big-bodied TE around, that should change next season (he grabbed two TDs as a rookie in less than half his 2021 targets). PFF has a projection of a TE11 finish for Kmet in 2022 and that, combined with his current ADP of around 110th overall (or TE13, if you prefer), has Kmet as one of the most valuable/most undervalued players at the position right now expected to become a TE1 PPR-performer. Fantastic target at his price these days.

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers

If you read the blurb above, then you know Cole Kmet is a legit draft target with an ADP around 110 and a projected TE11 finish. Well, then let me introduce you to Gerald Everett, folks. Everett's ADP of 140th is starting to go down as I'm writing this. It's already a ridiculously cheap opportunity for savvy GMs out there, but it's getting so obvious that I don't even know what will end up happening with this situation. The reason? PFF has GE projected to a (low-end) TE1 finish and the 12th-most PPR points among players at the position.

Of course, Everett is getting off draft boards as the TE21 (!) which is currently the biggest overlook at the position by fantasy GMs by a mile. Only Njoku is pegged for a positive ROI taking into account his current ADP and PFF projection, and he's already a full round more expensive than Everett--that should change, though, as Deshaun Watson is probably going to miss time and that will bring fear to Njoku's lovers out there. Everett's overall ADP of 141 compares positively to an expected (always via PFF) 136th overall finish in fantasy football leagues next year. Makes sense, honestly. Everett is entering his prime at age 28 next year, is coming off his best season ever in Seattle (117.8 PPR points, 7.9 FPPG, only 15 games played and 12 started), and is going to get balls from gunslinger Justin Herbert next season. Not to mention the 76.2% catch rate, 6.3% TD rate, 478 yards on just 48 receptions, or the four TDs over the 2021 season, of course. In other words... Draft. This. Beast.

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