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John breaks down the biggest risers and fallers for fantasy football after the first few days of 2025 NFL free agency. Which players are the biggest risers and furthest fallers ahead of the 2025 NFL season?
The majority of free-agent signings have already happened after just the first few days of free agency ahead of the 2025 NFL season, and with most of the dust settled, there have emerged plenty of clear winners and losers. While most teams won't have all their position groups fully addressed until after the 2025 NFL Draft, the picture is a lot clearer now than it was at the beginning of March.
For some players, it's been great news, and for some, the changes in their situations have been terrible for their fantasy value. For many of these, the changes that will benefit or hurt their value have been obvious. For some, everything's a bit murkier.
Regardless, let's cut through all the noise and break down the biggest risers and fallers after the free-agency period and ahead of the 2025 NFL season.
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Top Risers After Free Agency
Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams
There might not be a better place for Adams to spend his final few years in the NFL than the Rams. Adams will now have an elite offensive coordinator (effectively head coach Sean McVay), a great quarterback in Matthew Stafford who played well despite horrible offensive line play and injuries to both his top-two receivers, and an elite WR in Puka Nacua to draw coverage attention away from him.
Davante Adams is tied for the 11th-best Open Score and yards per route run for a wide receiver over the past 3 seasons, via ESPN Analytics. His Open Score has been top 15 in the NFL each year:
Link for the complete dataset + context for stats: https://t.co/XcNijaEkdE pic.twitter.com/lbMy5MExi5
— Wyatt Miller (@wymill07) March 13, 2025
Adams clearly still has it, though he didn't try much with the Las Vegas Raiders, and that dragged down his stats.
In their 11 games together, Davante Adams was better than Garrett Wilson by:
– Average separation score
– Yards per route run
– Targets per route
– Route win rate pic.twitter.com/6JKnrad4ik— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) March 10, 2025
This is a match made in heaven, and Adams could easily finish in the top 20 receivers in PPR fantasy football. He's 32 years old now, but he should get huge target volume from Stafford. The situation couldn't be more different than languishing with the Raiders and Jets with terrible quarterbacks.
Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Harris' dynasty fantasy football value was given a nice boost, as he got an upgrade by signing with the Los Angeles Chargers after four seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. If the team doesn't draft a good RB in the 2025 NFL Draft, Harris will be the unquestioned RB1 and workhorse back for the Chargers, as current backup Kimani Vidal doesn't appear to be much of a threat to his workload.
Najee Harris quite literally bled black and gold
4 seasons and never missed a single game despite several injuries
Gonna miss him in Pittsburgh
— Own The League FF (@OTLFFootball) March 11, 2025
Harris is a complete and very durable RB. His biggest weakness is a lack of top-end speed, but that's not super important. Harris will be an upgrade over former Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins in several areas, primarily in injury-proneness, though. He should get a ton of touches. L.A. has him on a one-year contract and likely intends to run him into the ground.
He should have solid receiving upside. His career probably isn't in great shape for the long-term, as once his athleticism starts fading but if he has a good year, the team could opt to extend him,
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets
Of course, Field's dynasty value would rise; he signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the New York Jets, signaling that he'll be the starter next season. Having played backup last season, his value significantly diminished, but now that he's easily in the conversation of potentially finishing as a QB1 again, largely due to his rushing upside, he's much more valuable now.
#Jets WR Garrett Wilson is reportedly "thrilled" to have a Buckeye reunion with QB Justin Fields in New York. pic.twitter.com/tVpyryRoLI
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) March 17, 2025
It's the perfect time to sell him. The Jets have long been a seriously dysfunctional organization. They're on the short list of teams that consistently hold their players back fantasy-wise, and if, at any point in the last few seasons, you had traded away literally any of your Jets players in a dynasty, you would have likely gotten a better return for them than if you'd hung on to them.
Oh boy. Here's Justin Fields' 1st sack.
Motion tells us we've got zone, but Tampa drops from a 2-high look into Cover 3 after the snap.
We like Mooney pre-snap, and honestly? He's NFL open. Throw it!
But if you didn't like Mooney, look at DJ Moore! He's open *the entire play* pic.twitter.com/ALdFFj2A7F
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) September 18, 2023
Social media is absolutely slammed with posts about how Fields is great at avoiding pressure and can get away from sacks, but there's a mountain of evidence that he sits back and waits for the sacks to come for him, even when his WRs are open.
The Jets don't have a particularly good offensive line, either. Perhaps new OC Tanner Engstrand can help with this, but Fields inability to ever pass for more than 300 yards except for once in a pink moon won't help.
Tanner Engstrand talking about his scheme and where it comes from #Jets pic.twitter.com/LlC2EDJCRy
— NY Sports Guru (@NYSportsGuru2) January 31, 2025
Sell him off while you still can.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Hall's value should go up, if only slightly. Quarterbacks with elite rushing upside generally help give their running backs more room to roam in the open field, because defenses have to adjust their coverages to account for potential QB scrambles.
Hall had a down year in 2024, owing partly to his decreased usage, the offense being poorly managed, the offensive line being trash, and his QB hardly throwing the ball to him
Breece Hall led all running backs with 423 routes run in 2024 - 118 more than the next closest running back!🤯
Is Hall due for a bounce back year in 2025? pic.twitter.com/NIMHuoq519
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) February 13, 2025
The last point is very important. Fields, despite being happy to scramble, often checked the ball down to his running backs. He would readily dump it off to his backs when he was in trouble, and Hall is the perfect back to do this with.
That should help his PPR value a lot since Rodgers would do the opposite, even when Hall was open with no defenders near him for a free first down because Rodgers only cares about padding his stats and making himself look good.
Interesting stat I came across when looking through the @FTNFantasy Advanced Statshub...
Justin Fields had a 17.3% checkdown rate last year. It was the 3rd-highest among all QBs with at least 150 pass attempts.
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) March 11, 2025
Hall looked nothing like his old self in 2024. He was likely battling through problems with his surgically repaired knee all season. Not sure if that will get better. But that's a massive red flag for me. I'd sell Hall to someone who thinks Fields will be good for his value.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Not hard to imagine why he's rising, is it? The Commanders traded for former San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and former Houston Texans offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. They lacked a WR2 at all last season, and their left tackle wasn't great, so big upgrades here make Daniels upside much higher.
Rap: Deebo Samuel to be traded to the Commanders. pic.twitter.com/46g3D46bp0
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) March 1, 2025
Samuel's pneumonia greatly hurt his production last year, but he should bounce back, provided he doesn't get it again. Anyone who's had pneumonia can empathize with Samuel -- it's a tough, tough recovery, and it takes months to feel normal again.
And reports of Tunsil being a locker room cancer were just BS. The Texans just needed to pay their young players.
Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler is terrible. Mason is not. It's likely that Mason gets quite a bit more volume than many are thinking now, despite the extension the team gave to their other RB. Mason has been underrated thus far in his career and will have a chance at challenging for the starting job, if not in 2025, then soon after.
On outside zone run schemes in 2024, which the Vikings ran the 7th most of last year (via @FantasyPtsData):
Yards per carry
+ Aaron Jones: 4.38
+ Jordan Mason: 5.86Missed tackles forced per attempt
+ Aaron Jones: 0.14
+ Jordan Mason: 0.29Explosive rush rate
+ Aaron Jones:… https://t.co/qvA9A2fYfC— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 16, 2025
There's now a clear path for him to get more volume, and considering his backfield mate's injury history, he could get a substantial touch share in his first season in Minnesota.
Top Fallers After Free Agency
DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
I've written quite a bit about how Metcalf is in a poor landing spot. During that time, the Steelers offensive coordinator has visited his doctor numerous times to get treatment for excessive mouth-watering, and his doctor has informed him that he needs to just stop drawing up all the ways he will draw up great plays for Metcalf -- don't worry, it won't be as a receiver, but as a run-blocker.
Arthur Smith has to be pumped to potentially have DK Metcalf and George Pickens blocking for Connor Heyward screens.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) March 9, 2025
Smith is one of the few OCs in the league that swears by playing as little football as possible. Instead, he wants to run the ball as much as possible to grind the clock down and get the game finished so he can go home early and draw up even more run plays, I guess.
I don't expect this to change much. The Steelers were the second-most run-happy team in the NFL last season among squads that didn't feature a hyper-mobile quarterback with significant rushing stats.
I won't like Metcalf being on the Steelers. 5th-most run happy team in the NFL last year, in spite of not having a mobile QB or productive RB, which Philly, Baltimore, and Buffalo all had. Steelers are No. 1 in the NFL at running more than they should. pic.twitter.com/snEjPDnpp1
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 13, 2025
At the time of writing this, the Steelers still hadn't figured out their quarterback situation. Or maybe they had. Perhaps, with Smith on his knees and absolutely begging head coach Mike Tomlin like his life depended on it, the team will decide to stick with QB Mason Rudolph, giving Artie free reign to implement a full World War II-era-esque run-heavy offense. The sub-50 percent mark of last season probably doesn't make him too happy.
DK & Pickens to Arthur Smith when he calls 40 run plays for 38 yards pic.twitter.com/uY83eh6P8q
— Tyler Harris (@TyJHarris) March 9, 2025
Short of nailing a pick on a massive sleeper in the 2025 NFL Draft, I just don't see how any QB situation could turn out well. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers really doesn't have anything left in the tank, despite the copium many have about that situation.
Even if the team brought back QB Russell Wilson on a one-year deal or something like that, how is he intended to make both Metcalf and the other Steelers receivers productive when no WR on the team was even a WR3 in 2024?
I don't think it was a horrible idea for Pittsburgh to make the trade for the former Seahawks receiver, but it's certainly terrible for his dynasty value.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Everything I said above about Smith applies to Pickens as well, though in his case, he has serious character issues that undoubtedly have affected his on-the-field play. The closest thing we have in the league to a WWE wrestler since Vontaze Burfict will never reach the full potential his talent gives him.
George Pickens is such a special talent. pic.twitter.com/N0RMdAzBvu
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) March 17, 2025
It would be cool if he really, truly set that all behind him and applied himself. But even if he did, on a run-heavy offense that now features another target, it's likely his volume goes down even further than it did last season. He never became a target-hog, as Smith still likes to spread the ball around with his play-calling, especially to his second and third-string tight ends.
The Eagle Incident. More Darnell Washington 2024 highlights ➡️https://t.co/Uem7MkoRCo #Steelers #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/k9rUxozjkH
— Steely Cam (@CamBlurn) February 18, 2025
It's pretty obvious why Smith likes TE Darnell Washington so much! Pickens only got three touchdowns in 14 games last season. He was targeted 103 times but only hauled in 53 passes, amounting to less than four catches per contest. He was a WR3 in PPR points per game, and might be a WR4 now. He's been overrated for most of his career now, and that will probably remain true for the rest of it.
It's funny, because the players that have so many gassing them up on social media are typically overrated in dynasty, so they're great players to sell off. You should do so with Pickens ASAP. The best time to sell him off will always be now, though I supposed you could wait for one of his blow-up games if he has one early in the season.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
See the above section about Mason's signing with the team. Jones will now have tough competition in the backfield. Minny might want to keep Jones healthier, as he's had persistent injury issues for most of his career. Selling off Jones is a great idea.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Darnold had an insanely amazing situation with the Minnesota Vikings. A great pass-blocking offensive line, elite weapons to throw to, a good run game, and a fantastic offense headed by Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell.
Now, he gets a huge downgrade at the OL group, because Seahawks general manager John Schneider doesn't care about one of the most important position groups in the NFL and refuses to invest in them.
Schneider said he gets the angst over the O-line, where their only addition has been swing OT Josh Jones. He confirmed they went after G Will Fries before he signed as huge deal with Minnesota, and said the answer to not landing Fries isn't to spend recklessly on lesser players. pic.twitter.com/hNVjiexckD
— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) March 13, 2025
Don't spend recklessly on lesser players. Great idea, John! When we see Darnold get blasted repeatedly behind this terrible offensive line, you can keep saying that, and keep handing big contracts to players that don't deserve them. And trading away Metcalf is definitely not good for Darnold now.
He's enduring a big downgrade in that area. No quarterback would rather have Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jake Bobo, and Noah Fant as their WR1, WR2, and TE1 over Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.
Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has a lot of work to do to make this a functional offense.
RB J.K. Dobbins
It's unlikely he has a big role moving forward, as he still hasn't been signed by a team. He might not even be signed before the 2025 season starts. He had an okay-ish season in 2024, but his metrics weren't super inspiring, other than in a few games against terrible defenses.
Dobbins' injury history is likely the biggest thing dissuading teams from picking him up. His efficiency also regressed as the season went on. His various surgically repaired ligaments could be at fault for this.
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