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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on May 13, 2018. Elliott Baas' MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
It’s Sunday Run-day in Major League Baseball! Why call it Run-day, you might ask? That’s because there should be crooked numbers all over big league scoreboard this Sunday. Of the 22 starting pitchers on this eleven-game slate, seven of them are below $5,000 and four of them are the minimum $4,000 for a starting pitcher. Several back-end starters and planned bullpen days have converged for an intriguing slate of games across the majors.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/13/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @ElliottBaasBB
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DraftKings Starting Pitchers
Luis Severino, NYY (vs. OAK) - $12,200
Severino has looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and he’s only the third highest priced pitcher on DraftKings today. He’s failed to score at least 26 points just twice, and failed to score at least 22 just once. The Athletics have a better offense than in years past with a .328 wOBA against right-handed pitching, but that shouldn’t scare us off Severino. In his last two starts he had a complete game shut-out against the Astros and an 11 K game against the Red Sox, two of the best teams in baseball. His 2.21 ERA might be eye catching, but what’s even more impressive is his 2.01 FIP, suggesting that everything Severino has done is supported by advanced metrics. He’s been as good as anyone, and deserves our trust in this matchup.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU (vs. TEX) - $8,000
Keuchel seems to have righted the ship after a rocky start to the season, posting four quality starts in his last five outings. He doesn’t have the big strikeout upside that other pitchers do, but in this matchup he represents safety. The Rangers are a middling offense against lefties with a .320 wOBA, and a bad offense on the road with a .303 wOBA away from Globe Life Park. Keuchel holds the platoon advantage over many of the Rangers best hitters (Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo) and has the mighty Astros lineup backing him against vulnerable lefty Matt Moore.
Danny Duffy, KC (@ CLE) - $5,000
It would be impossible to say whether the Danny Duffy from 2016-2017 is back, but there have been some encouraging signs. His velocity has been steadily rising over his past few starts and Duffy sat around 94 MPH last time out, a stark improvement over the 91 MPH we saw consistently in April. He’s also been getting more whiffs and more chases. In Duffy’s last start he had a 38.3% O-swing rate and 15 swinging strikes, giving him 31 total whiffs over his last two starts. At %5,000 Duffy is priced with the junk-ballers and spot starters, but he’s been better than that. With so many pricey bats to fit in our lineup this is a worthwhile risk to take.
DraftKings Infielders
C – Mike Zunino, SEA (@ DET) - $3,700
There are actually some pretty strong options at catcher today, which is rare given the nature of the position. Zunino has just as much power as any of them, it’s the making contact part that’s been tricky for him. That shouldn’t be as much of a problem against Tigers starter Blaine Hardy. Hardy, a left-hander, is making his first career MLB start after 167 games out of the bullpen for Detroit. While Hardy may have a 2.70 ERA in 3.1 innings, it comes with a 7.06 FIP. In a more significant sample size Hardy had a 5.94 ERA, 5.38 FIP, and 1.89 HR/9 in 35 relief appearances last year. This is probably a bullpen game for Detroit, which is great for Seattle hitters as the Tigers bullpen owns a 4.72 ERA this season, 6th highest in the majors. In his breakout season last year Zunino had a .297 ISO against left-handed pitching and a .258 ISO overall.
1B – Mitch Moreland, BOS (@ TOR)
Moreland has been raking as of late, with four home runs in his last ten games. He’ll get to take on Blue Jays righty Joe Biagini, who has posted an 8.10 ERA and 1.80 HR/9 in his first two starts. Biagini’s poor performance is more than just small sample size. As a starter he has a 5.97 ERA and 1.29 HR/9 in 98 innings.
2B – Eduardo Nunez, BOS (@ TOR) - $3,500
Nunez also gets to face Biagini, and represents one of the cheaper Boston regulars against him. Nunez hasn’t been good this season with a .637 OPS, but this matchup offers him a great opportunity to turn it around.
3B – Nolan Arenado, COL (vs. MIL) - $5,500
In Coors Field Arenado has a career .278 ISO, .963 OPS, .402 wOBA all time. With Chase Anderson being scratched on Saturday we don’t know who is starting for the Brewers, but it’s currently scheduled as Anderson. Regardless of whether it’s Anderson or whoever it won’t be a quality pitcher. On a day with tons of good hitters in good spots, Arenado stands above the rest.
SS – Trevor Story, COL (vs. MIL) - $4,500
Story isn’t priced like Arenado, but his production at Coors is comparable. At home Story has a .318 ISO, .995 OPS, and .469 wOBA for his career. At this price tag he pairs well with Arenado.
DraftKings Outfielders
OF – Nelson Cruz, SEA (@ DET) - $4,300
One of baseball’s best power hitters takes on the Blaine Hardy and whoever else comes out of the Tigers’ bullpen on Sunday. Cruz has the power to go deep against any pitcher, but he especially annihilates lefties. For his career Cruz has a .926 OPS, .256 ISO, and .390 wOBA against southpaws.
OF – Mitch Haniger, SEA (@ DET) - $4,400
Haniger’s 2017 breakout got deferred to 2018, and boy is it looking good. He owns a .970 OPS, .299 ISO, and ten home runs through 158 plate appearances. Like Cruz and Zunino he gets a piece of Blaine Hardy and the Detroit Tigers bullpen this Sunday.
OF – Brian Anderson, MIA (vs. ATL) - $3,100
Anderson probably sticks out because he is the only recommended hitter not facing a punching bag. What he does, however, is feast on left-handed pitching. Anderson is hitting .344 with a 1.055 OPS and .250 ISO against lefties this season. Braves lefty Sean Newcomb has been good, but so has Anderson.
