Power Hitters Who Surged in September - Tyler O'Neill, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Belt

March 30, 2022

John Flanigan identifies power hitters who surged late last season that could be strong fantasy baseball draft targets for 2022 to help with home runs.

Whether their team is in the playoff hunt or not, it’s always big for guys to finish the season out on a strong note. Even if it’s in meaningless games, guys can look to carry that positive momentum into spring training and then the next season.

In 2021, we saw some really strong performances at the plate over the final stretch of the season.

Here are three of those hitters who shined in the power department during the month of September and could offer high HR potential in 2022 relative to ADP consensus.

Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals

Heading into last season, O’Neill hadn’t quite been able to find much consistent success at the big league level. Over his first three campaigns, he appeared in just 171 games and struck out 153 times while hitting 21 home runs and posting a .713 OPS.

It wasn’t until this past season that he finally was able to establish himself as the power threat he is at the plate. In fact, O’Neill actually performed well enough to finish eighth in National League MVP voting.

That power he put on display in the minors finally carried over to the show, as he cracked 34 home runs, the seventh-highest mark in the NL. He also posted the seventh-highest OPS (.912), fifth-highest slugging percentage (.560), and the fourth-highest WAR (6.3) on the year.

Over the final month of the season, O’Neill hit 11 of his 34 home runs and posted a 1.014 OPS. He saw an increase in his exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage, xwOBA, and xSLG. All of those marks rose from below league average to around the 90th percentile.

O’Neill established himself as one of the premier power-hitting outfielders in the game today. He figures to slot right back into the middle of that strong Cardinals lineup and should continue to show off his power this season. 

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

Overall, Francisco Lindor’s first season in orange and blue was a bit of a struggle. While he still played Gold Glove-caliber defense at short, Lindor’s production with the bat was certainly down from his career norms.

Lindor never completely settled in at the plate until around the second half of the season. While he still struggled a bit, the star shortstop jumped up from a .698 first-half OPS to .813 over 38 second-half games.

The last month of the season was probably his best. Lindor hit nine of his 20 home runs, the most he’d hit in a month all season. This includes a heroic three-home run game in a win over the New York Yankees in the Subway Series finale at Citi Field.

He also added 25 RBI to his season total and posted a 141 OPS+ and .895 OPS over the final 30 games played. While the counting stats don’t quite show it, Lindor actually posted a career-high hard-hit percentage (44.1%) and increased both his launch angle and barrel percentage (8.2%) for the season.

Despite the struggles, Lindor was one of the Mets' better performers with runners in scoring position over the course of the season. The slugger posted a .410 OBP and .854 OPS over 120 plate appearances in such situations last season.

That should play extremely well and he should see many more opportunities hitting behind the likes of Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte in 2022. This is exactly why I think people are crazy to be writing Lindor off after one bad season.

Lindor was looking more and more comfortable in orange and blue as the season went on. New York is a tough place to play, now that he's settled in and has some more thump around him in that lineup, Lindor could be looking at a monster bounce-back season at the plate.

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

Brandon Belt is definitely one of the more underrated first basemen in the game. When he’s on the field, he’s a really solid defender and as reliable as it gets with both his power and on-base ability.

He again battled the injury bug this past season, appearing in just 97 games, but when he was on the field, his power was on full display. Belt hit a career-high 29 home runs and helped carry the Giants to the best record in baseball and an NL West berth.

The slugger also posted a 160 OPS+, .975 OPS, and .378 OBP. While his strikeout rate stayed high, so did his walk rate, which finished in the 90th percentile. His 15% barrel percentage was good enough to finish in the 94th percentile in baseball.

Belt put together some of his best performances over the final stretch of the season. Following the All-Star break, he posted a .394 on-base percentage, 129 OPS+, and hit 18 of his 29 home runs. Half of those longballs came during the final month of the season to go along with a 1.172 OPS over 21 September games. 

Coming off back-to-back breakout, but injury-plagued seasons, Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer this offseason. He figures to play every day at first base and slot right back into the middle of their order. If he can just stay healthy, Belt could be a really solid sleeper option this season.

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