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Pierre Camus takes a gif-inspired journey through the 2016 season of MLB SP Matt Wisler and analyzes what makes him an undervalued fantasy baseball asset.
Matt Wisler isn't a top prospect and he's struggled to stay in the rotation for the cellar-dwelling Braves this season. Yet, at times he has been their best pitcher and is starting to resemble that again in the final month of the season.
It's easy to forget, unless you're a die-hard Braves fan (or a writer who covers them) that at one point in mid-May, Wisler had a lower ERA and WHIP than All-Star teammate Julio Teheran. Things took a turn for the worse, unfortunately, and Wisler's season seemed to go down the tube. After a month-long demotion, however, Wisler has returned looking better than ever and could be a surprising value for fantasy owners in search of streaming help.
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Wisler's recent resurgence has been met with a healthy dose of skepticism from fantasy owners. He has barely registered a blip on the fantasy radar with 8% Fleaflicker ownership. This skepticism is justifiable since Wisler's season has been a long, slow roller-coaster ride. Wisler started fading in June and by July he wasn't making it out of the fifth inning in most of his starts. Visual proof of his rising ratios, courtesy of Graphiq.com.
Those June/July numbers are in need of an extreme makeover for sure, but let's back up a minute. If you're wondering just how low those May numbers are, they're pretty low (thank you, Captain Obvious). He posted a 0.97 WHIP and held opponents to a .206 BAA in six starts. Those starts didn't all come against the Phillies incidentally (just two of them). He threw eight innings of one-hit ball against the Mets in Shea, er, Citi Field before everyone was hurt in their lineup. He also tossed a quality start against the Giants, back when they thought winning was cool.
Then, inexplicably, Wisler lasted just four innings in consecutive outings and gave up a whopping 13 ER in those two starts. He then strung together four straight QS before unraveling in July, giving up 5+ ER four straight times. Even the Phillies got revenge on Wisler, finally pushing his ERA to 5.16 by the end of the month. Was fatigue to blame? A mechanical issue perhaps?
Actually, the chief cause of Wisler's fall from grace stemmed from working increasingly with runners on base and a propensity to give up the long ball. When he was limiting baserunners early in the year, and early in games, he was in a comfort zone and held hitters to a .229 AVG with bases empty. With RISP, that average climbs to .287. His BB/9 rose to 3.62 in June, making Wisler his own worst enemy.
The other huge change was his HR allowed rate, which jumped from 0.42 HR/9 in May to 2.30 in June and then again up to 3.08 HR/9 in July. This was partially a result of him not keeping the ball down in the zone, but his 23.1 %HR/FB% was unusually high. Wisler was at or above a 40% FB% the entire first half, which wouldn't be a problem if so many balls (15) hadn't left the park.
The good news is that the roller-coaster seems to be peaking again just in time for the stretch run. Of course, I'm referring to fantasy baseball. The Braves have been out of the race since the second week of the season. But I digress... Wisler had a solid month in Triple-A, with a 3.71 ERA in four starts, walking just five in 26.2 IP. Wisler is not an exceptionally high strikeout pitcher, averaging 6.9 K/9 this season with the Braves. He did hold an 8.3 K/9 in the minors, which will not hurt fantasy owners in any way. He relies mainly on a variety of off-speed pitches and a change-up down in the zone to get batters out. He has proven effective as long as he doesn't keep his pitches up.
Sometimes a season's worth of stats don't tell the whole story. In this case, it's a tale of two Wislers. The good one seems to have come back stronger than ever and has allowed just 12 batters to reach base in his last 14 innings, good for a .195 wOBA. In August, his ground ball rate has spiked to 52.9%, which bodes well for his chances of keeping the ball in the park.
See, long fly balls aren't always a bad thing. They just get a bad rap from those pitcher-types.
If you are in the playoff hunt, it may be hard to take a chance on a young pitcher like Wisler. It's not a guarantee that he will continue his September the way he has pitched so far since being recalled. If he does, however, he could deliver exceptionally low ratios and possibly a win or two on the way.
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