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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 23

Pierre Camus looks at fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category for week 23 to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 23 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Delino DeShields (OF, TEX) 93% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

DeShields has benefited from a .384 BABIP, but he's also improved on his previously unacceptable strikeout rate. He's managed to hold onto a starting job and help fantasy owners with 28 steals this season, but his run-scoring is limited by an offense around him that's struggled to produce all year. It appears he's set to finish strong in the average category, so make him your third outfielder with confidence.

Hyun Soo Kim (OF, BAL) 97% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Hyun Soo Kim, where you been? His move to Philly was an under-the-radar move that didn't seem to have much fantasy impact. Well, it really doesn't, but it might be interesting to note that among the youth movement in Philadelphia, Kim is carving out a role for himself as a semi-regular outfielder. Kim is batting .316 over the last week and starting to get more comfortable at the plate, although it's not enough to recommend adding him just yet. Plus, you won't be getting any power from him - he hasn't homered since April 24.

George Springer (OF, HOU) 88% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

It doesn't take much convincing to keep Springer in your lineup. He swatted homers #30 and #31 this week to go along with a .346 average. While small to moderate gains in contact rate can be telling of future success, Springer is the poster boy for this very model. He keeps dropping his strikeout rate (from 33% in 2014 to 19% in 2017) and improving his contact rate each year in the majors by great strides (from 61% in 2014 to 78% in 2017) and seems to finally have come into his own as a star player.

Jonathan Villar (2B/3B, MIL) 82% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

Villar will come away from this season as one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy baseball. That said, he's doing his best to make up for it in the second half with a .364 average in August and he's swatting .423 through the first week of September. Steals? Not so much. Just seven SB in the last 38 games and 23 on the season. I won't rub any more salt into the wounds of his owners by mentioning that he's scored exactly half as many runs as last year while slashing .240/.292/.371. All that for someone who cost a second or third round pick. Nope, I won't do it.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Ryan Zimmerman (1B, WAS) 58% contact rate last seven days (-20%)

Predictably, Zimmerman's second half hasn't gone as swimmingly as his MVP-caliber first half. The fact that half the Nats starting lineup is on the DL, including real-life MVP Bryce Harper, doesn't help. Z-Man is sporting a .381 average over the last week, so it would seem all is well, but he's only hitting .250 since the All-Star break and his strikeout rate is slowing creeping up. You're still starting him down the stretch, but don't be surprised if he's already shown us the best he's got to offer. Paying up for him in DFS might be asking a bit much.

Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW) 58% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Another surprising success story is Garcia, who's somehow managed to keep his .390 BABIP intact into September. Even with a contact rate barely above 50%, he's managed to bat .333 in the past week. He's also batting .400 over the last 30 days and .322 on the season, despite hitting 52% of his batted balls on the ground. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, I suppose.

Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) 71% contact rate last seven days (-9%)

If the season were to end today (don't you love that expression?) then Bogaerts would have experienced a 25-point drop in batting average for two straight years. His contact rate is just a tick below league average, but you might be surprised to know that he's never even reached 82% contact for a Major League season. Sadly, he's not even providing half the power he did last year when he reached 21 HR, so the average is all we have to rely on. He's in a downright slump lately, going one for his last 16 and doesn't figure to be an appealing option through the fantasy playoffs. As far as next year, your guess is as good as mine.

Travis Shaw (1B/3B, MIL) 73% contact rate last seven days (-8%)

Shaw is also 1-for-16 this past week and hadn't homered in over two weeks until Tuesday night. He's predictably fallen off in the second half, just as he did last season in Boston. When it's all said and done, Shaw will have produced a fine season in terms of power and can be considered a solid starter in mixed leagues. That can't be guaranteed for the rest of September, however.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Joel Embiid

Upgraded to Questionable for Thursday
CFB

Joe Sloan Expected to be Kentucky's New Offensive Coordinator
Justin Herbert

Chargers "Really Optimistic" That Justin Herbert Will Play on Monday
Michael Porter Jr.

Will Not Play Thursday
CFB

Lane Kiffin Working to Keep Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker at LSU
Noa Essengue

Out for the Season
Mike Evans

has "Real Chance" to Return in Week 14
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected To Miss 2-4 Weeks
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Realistic Expectation is for Amon-Ra St. Brown to Return Next Week
Jalen Carter

Won't Play in Week 14 After Having Shoulder Surgeries
Justin Herbert

Expected to Practice Either Thursday or Friday
Mike Evans

Practicing Again Thursday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Questionable With Rib Contusion
Marcus Smart

Sidelined Thursday Against Raptors
Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Paul Set To Part Ways With Clippers
CFB

Brian Daboll a Candidate for Penn State Head-Coaching Job?
Yves Missi

Sidelined vs. Wolves
Quentin Grimes

Uncertain To Play Against Golden State
Bilal Coulibaly

Likely Out Multiple Weeks With Oblique Strain
Karel Vejmelka

Records Impressive Shutout
JJ Peterka

Rocks Ducks With Four-Point Effort
Cole Caufield

Extends Point Streak With Power-Play Assist
Matvei Michkov

Delivers Two Assists Wednesday
Jake Oettinger

Grabs Fourth Consecutive Victory With Shutout
Ryan Leonard

Tallies Four Points in Wednesday's Win
Cam York

Exits Win Early
Jakob Poeltl

to Sit Out Thursday's Game
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Third Straight Game Thursday
Jonathan Kuminga

Iffy for Thursday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed as Questionable for Thursday
Paul George

Questionable Thursday
Joel Embiid

Unlikely to Play Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Doubtful to Play Thursday
Kevin Huerter

Sidelined One Week
Daniel Gafford

Aggravates Right-Ankle Injury on Wednesday
Collin Sexton

Injured in Loss to Knicks
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Suffers Calf Injury on Wednesday Night
Kyren Williams

Expected to Play in Week 14
Davante Adams

Expected to Play Despite Missing Wednesday's Practice
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Woody Marks

Texans Say Woody Marks Will be Fine
Rasmus Ristolainen

to Miss at Least One More Week
Drew Doughty

Logs Full Practice Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Jeff Skinner

Remains Sidelined Wednesday
Petr Mrazek

Out 2-3 Weeks
Tyler Seguin

Likely Done for the Season
Neal Pionk

Returns to Jets Lineup
J.J. McCarthy

Practices in Full, on Track to Return in Week 14
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Mark Andrews

Agrees to Three-Year Extension With Ravens
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Officially Questionable for Thursday Night
Omarion Hampton

"on Track and Looking Good" for Week 14
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech
Joey Bosa

Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Bryce Young

Panthers Expected to Pick Up Bryce Young's Fifth-Year Option
Deshaun Watson

Browns Opening Practice Window for Deshaun Watson
CFB

Brian Hartline Expected to Land USF Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Collin Klein Expected to be Top Target for Kansas State if Head-Coach Job Opens
CFB

Chris Klieman Considering Stepping Down at Kansas State
Aaron Rodgers

Appears to be Healthier Heading into Week 14
Jalen McMillan

Expected to Have his 21-day Practice Window Opened
Mike Evans

' Practice Window Opened, Returning to Practice on Wednesday
Alexander Wennberg

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Michael Callahan

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Michael Rasmussen

Makes Early Exit Tuesday
Scott Wedgewood

Exits Early With Back Problem
Evander Kane

Expected to Be Fine After Skate Cut
Tyler Seguin

Injured Versus Rangers
Sean Monahan

Expected to Play Thursday
Nathan Walker

Out for Eight Weeks
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Says he's Fine After Suffering Hip Contusion
Omarion Hampton

Likely to Return in Week 14
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

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