Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 8

November 4, 2020

Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.

This series continues into its eighth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 8, we saw performances such as Dalvin Cook scoring four touchdowns, the Dolphins wide receivers combining for 43 receiving yards, and the Browns getting 84 yards from scrimmage. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

New England Patriots Wide Receivers

Josh McDaniels

The New England Patriots fell to the Buffalo Bills this past Sunday, losing 24-21. In this game, one position group that struggled was the wide receiver room, which combined for 10 receptions on 15 targets for 110 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the New England Patriots wide receiver room is averaging 10.71 receptions, 17.57 targets, 132 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator. McDaniels has had his wide receiver room average 13.40 receptions, 21.76 targets, 164.85 receiving yards, and 1.04 receiving touchdowns per game in the 220 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Patriots wide receivers are in buy-low territory right now, with some improvement likely coming in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns. If you have any interest in the New England Patriots wide receivers going forward, now is a good time to make a move for them.

Fantasy players this impacts: N'Keal Harry, Julian Edelman, and Jakobi Meyers

Cleveland Browns Running Backs

Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt

The Cleveland Browns just couldn't get anything going offensively in Sunday's game against the Las Vegas Raiders and lost 16-6. In this game, the running back room in particular struggled, combining for 16 carries, 72 rushing yards, three receptions (on four targets), 12 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Browns running back room is averaging 26.25 carries, 131.75 rushing yards, 0.88 rushing touchdowns, three receptions, four targets, 17.63 receiving yards, and 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Cleveland Browns head coach, Kevin Stefanski, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. In the 19 games Stefanski coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season, his running back room averaged 26 carries, 123.21 rushing yards, 1.05 rushing touchdowns, 4.79 receptions, 5.89 targets, 41.84 receiving yards, and 0.05 receiving touchdowns per game.

In addition, in the 16 games that Alex Van Pelt had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, he had his running back room average 22.63 carries, 95.88 rushing yards, 0.25 rushing touchdowns, 4.63 receptions, 6.19 targets, 34.38 receiving yards, and 0.13 receiving touchdowns per game.

Overall, there should be much better performances than last Sunday for the Browns running backs. In addition, the season totals look to be around what we should expect from a Kevin Stefanski offense, with likely a slight increase in scrimmage yards and a slight decrease in touchdowns. Enjoy rostering these backs for the rest of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, and D'Ernest Johnson

Las Vegas Raiders Wide Receivers

Jon Gruden & Greg Olson

The Las Vegas Raiders took down the Cleveland Browns to improve their record to 4-3. It was not a pretty game by any means, with both teams struggling with the weather, leading to some poor stat lines. In this game, the Raiders wide receivers combined for six receptions on 10 targets for 34 receiving yards and a touchdown.

After this performance, on the season the Raiders wide receiver room is averaging 9.14 receptions on 13.14 targets for 143 receiving yards and 1.14 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Las Vegas Raiders head coach, Jon Gruden, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Jon Gruden has had his wide receiver room average 10.54 receptions on 17.69 targets for 140.43 receiving yards and 0.81 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 172 games that Greg Olson had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Olson has had his wide receiver room average 10.97 receptions on 19.34 targets for 142.58 receiving yards and 0.90 receiving touchdowns per game.

Going forward, there should be much better performances than this past Sunday and an uptick in targets if Jon Gruden and Greg Olson's previous tendencies kick into gear.

Fantasy players this impacts: Henry Ruggs III, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, and Nelson Agholor

Detroit Lions Running Backs

Darrell Bevell 

The Detroit Lions got worked by the Indianapolis Colts this past Sunday, losing 41-21. In this game, one position group that struggled was the Lions running backs, who combined to take 11 carries for eight rushing yards on the ground and make six receptions on seven targets for 42 receiving yards and a touchdown in the passing game.

After this performance, on the season the Detroit Lions running back room is averaging 21.57 carries, 83.86 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, five receptions, 6.43 targets, 38.86 receiving yards, and 0.29 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Lions offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time as an offensive coordinator. Darrell Bevell has had his running back room average 24.06 carries, 104.92 rushing yards, 0.73 rushing touchdowns, 4.20 receptions, 5.63 targets, 35.75 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Lions running backs won't be rushing only 11 times for eight yards in future games against much softer run defenses. And while there is likely some slight touchdown regression incoming for these running backs based on Bevell's previous history utilizing the position, a potential increase in carries (and therefore rush yards) should be able to offset it. If your league-mates are willing looking to sell D'Andre Swift after his poor performance against the Colts, it would be smart to capitalize and make a strong offer for him.

Fantasy players this impacts: D'Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson

Minnesota Vikings Wide Receivers

Gary Kubiak

The Minnesota Vikings got a huge win against the Green Bay Packers, winning 28-22 on the back of a four-touchdown game from star running back Dalvin Cook. But when your running back is having such a dominant game, it makes your team less likely to utilize their pass-catchers, and it reflected on the stat sheet for the Minnesota Vikings receivers. The Vikings wide receiver room combined for only seven receptions on nine targets for 69 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Vikings wide receiver room is averaging 10.86 receptions on 16 targets for 163.57 receiving yards and 1.43 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Gary Kubiak has had his wide receiver room average 11.13 receptions on 18.46 targets for 150.21 receiving yards and 0.86 receiving touchdowns per game in the 349 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

While there should be better performances for the Minnesota Vikings wide receivers than the one against the Green Bay Packers, the number of wide receiver touchdowns this year seems to be running on the higher side of what we would expect from a Gary Kubiak offense. In fact, even with Sunday's poor performance, the 2020 Vikings wide receiver room is on pace to score the most WR receiving touchdowns of Gary Kubiak's 23-year career as an offensive coordinator or head coach.

Going forward, we should expect a slight increase in volume (targets) and a slight decrease in receiving touchdowns for this position group.

Fantasy players this impacts: Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson

Miami Dolphins Wide Receivers

Chan Gailey

The Miami Dolphins got a win in Tua Tagovailoa's first NFL start, winning 28-17. In this game, the Dolphins didn't need to pass a lot with how dominant the defense and special teams were, and it resulted in a poor performance for the Dolphins wide receivers. The Dolphins wide receivers combined for five receptions on 10 targets for 43 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.

After this performance, on the season the Dolphins wide receiver room is averaging 11.14 receptions on 17.43 targets for 134.14 receiving yards and 0.86 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. The Dolphins offensive coordinator has had his wide receiver room average 11.34 receptions for 154.93 receiving yards and 0.89 receiving touchdowns per game in the 224 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season. In addition, in the 192 games prior to this season that Gailey coached where targets were tracked his wide receiver room averaged 20.78 targets per game.

While the win was great, Sunday's performance from the Dolphins wide receivers was disappointing from a fantasy perspective. However, based on Chan Gailey's previous usage of the position and Tua Tagovailoa starting at quarterback there should be improved performances from this group going forward. Consider buying DeVante Parker and Preston Williams for the late-season stretch.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeVante Parker and  Preston Williams

Philadelphia Eagles Tight Ends

Doug Pederson

The Philadelphia Eagles won one of the ugliest games of the year against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, 23-9. In this game, the Eagles tight ends combined for one reception on one target for 15 receiving yards and no touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Eagles tight end room is averaging 6.75 receptions on 10.38 targets for 64.75 receiving yards and 0.38 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson, has traditionally gotten out of his tight end room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Pederson has had his tight end room average seven receptions on 10.10 targets for 74.78 receiving yards and 0.56 receiving touchdowns per game in the 112 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Seeing only one catch on one target is uncharacteristic from a Doug Pederson tight end room. Going forward expect the Eagles tight ends to average a stat line around seven receptions, ten targets, 65-70 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

Fantasy players this impacts: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, and Richard Rodgers

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