Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 7

October 28, 2020

Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.

This series continues into its seventh week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 7, we saw performances such as Joe Burrow throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns, the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver room combining for 80 receiving yards, and the Las Vegas Raiders running backs only getting 46 rushing yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers

Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore

The Dallas Cowboys got destroyed by the Washington Football Team, losing 25-3. In this game, the offense struggled to get going, with the wide receiver room in particular struggling. In this game, the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver room combined for a very disappointing seven receptions (14 targets), 80 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the wide receiver room is averaging 18.71 receptions on 27.71 targets for 245.57 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown per game.

Now let's compare this to what their head coach, Mike McCarthy, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as either an offensive coordinator or head coach. Mike McCarthy has had his wide receiver room average 13.04 receptions, 21.83 targets, 178.67 receiving yards, and 1.31 receiving touchdowns per game in the 304 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Kellen Moore has been an offensive coordinator, his wide receiver room has averaged 14 receptions, 22.31 targets, 217.19 receiving yards, and 1.25 receiving touchdowns per game.

Based on this information, while the Cowboys wide receivers should be better than they were this past Sunday against the Washington Football Team, overall the group's per-game stats are still running high. Even if Dak Prescott were healthy, this group was likely to experience some regression from their season totals based on their coaches' previous success at the position. But with Dak Prescott out for the year and Andy Dalton likely to miss some time with a concussion, the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver group might be in some trouble down the stretch. If you can still manage to sell on the basis that they are going to have better performances than Sunday in the future (which is true), now would be a good time to do so.

Fantasy players this impacts: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Noah Brown, and Cedrick Wilson

Dallas Cowboys Running Backs

Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore

Another Cowboys positional group lands on the list! It makes sense as the Dallas Cowboys got destroyed by the Washington Football Team, losing 25-3. In this game, the running back room struggled to get going, finishing the game with 20 carries, 61 rushing yards, two receptions (three targets), 12 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the running back room is averaging 21 carries, 82.86 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 6.14 receptions (8.43 targets), 37.57 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what Dallas Cowboys head coach, Mike McCarthy, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Mike McCarthy has had his running back room average 21.17 carries, 89.18 rushing yards, 0.57 rushing touchdowns, 3.99 receptions, 5.38 targets, 31.44 receiving yards, and 0.10 receiving touchdowns per game in the 304 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Kellen Moore had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, he had his running back room average 24.19 carries, 113.25 rushing yards, 0.88 rushing touchdowns, 4.31 receptions, 5.69 targets, 32.94 receiving yards, and 0.19 receiving touchdowns per game.

Based on pure coaching information, the Dallas Cowboys running backs look like a prime bounce-back candidate from both their Sunday performance and their overall season totals. However, with the injuries the team has faced, it may be more difficult for this group to improve upon its overall season totals much. Expect better performances than the one against Washington, but the current per game pace seems to be a reasonable expectation for the kind of production from this group going forward.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott

Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs

Jon Gruden & Greg Olson

The Las Vegas Raiders fought hard against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but ultimately lost 45-20. In the game, the Raiders just couldn't get their running backs going, with the running back room combining for 20 carries, 46 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions (six targets), 23 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the running back room is averaging 25 carries, 101.17 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 5.83 receptions (7.33 targets), 37.33 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what Jon Gruden, the Raiders head coach, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time as either an offensive coordinator or head coach. Gruden has had his running back room average 22.74 carries, 95.04 rushing yards, 0.54 rushing touchdowns, 4.73 receptions, 6.72 targets, 37.29 receiving yards, and 0.07 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 172 games that Greg Olson has been an offensive coordinator, his running back room has averaged 20.62 carries, 84.26 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns, 4.99 receptions, 6.62 targets, 38.69 receiving yards, and 0.08 receiving touchdowns per game.

Based on all of this information, there should be better performances than the one this group put up against the Buccaneers tough defense and overall this group seems to be performing around the level we would expect from a Jon Gruden offense.

Fantasy players this impacts: Josh Jacobs, Devontae Booker, and Jalen Richard

Denver Broncos Wide Receivers

Pat Shurmur

The Denver Broncos got throttled by the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 43-16. In this game, the team's wide receivers struggled, totalling nine receptions on 15 targets for 114 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the wide receiver room is averaging 10 receptions on 18.17 targets for 146.67 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Broncos offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, has gotten out of his wide receiver room in the time he's spent as either an offensive coordinator or head coach. Shurmur has had his wide receiver room average 12.04 receptions, 20.36 targets, 150.47 receiving yards, and 0.88 receiving touchdowns per game in the 169 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Based on Shurmur's previous success at the wide receiver position, there could be some improvement from the Denver Broncos wide receiver room going forward. If you have any interest in rostering any of the Denver Broncos receivers, now would be a good time to make a trade or waiver pickup.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler

Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receivers

Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy

The Kansas City Chiefs destroyed the Denver Broncos on Sunday, winning 43-16. While this is great for their team, if you roster any of the Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers on your fantasy team you were probably disappointed, as the group combined for 10 receptions (14 targets), 127 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.

After this performance, on the season the wide receiver room is averaging 12.29 receptions on 17.71 targets for 160 receiving yards and 1.29 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what legendary head coach Andy Reid has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as a head coach. Reid has had his wide receiver room average 10.49 receptions, 18.42 targets, 142.68 receiving yards, and 0.84 receiving touchdowns per game in the 336 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 32 games that Eric Bieniemy has been an offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs, the Chiefs wide receiver room has averaged 18.28 targets, 168.75 receiving yards, and 1.44 receiving touchdowns per game.

Sunday's performance is on the lower end of what we would expect from the Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers since Eric Bieniemy has been an offensive coordinator and Patrick Mahomes has been the team's starting quarterback. Expect slightly better performances in the future.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman

New England Patriots Wide Receivers

Josh McDaniels

The New England Patriots didn't play well at all versus the San Francisco 49ers, losing 33-6. The Patriots wide receivers combined for seven receptions (13 targets), 95 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the wide receiver room is averaging 10.83 receptions on 18 targets for 135.67 receiving yards and 0.17 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator. McDaniels has had his wide receiver room average 13.40 receptions, 21.76 targets, 164.85 receiving yards, and 1.04 receiving touchdowns per game in the 220 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Patriots wide receivers are in buy-low territory right now, with some improvement likely coming in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns. If you have any interest in the New England Patriots wide receivers going forward, now is the perfect time to make a move for them.

Fantasy players this impacts: N'Keal Harry, Julian Edelman, and Jakobi Meyers

New York Jets Wide Receivers

Adam Gase & Dowell Loggains

The New York Jets played one of their most competitive games to date, losing to the Buffalo Bills 18-10. In this game, the Jets wide receivers combined for 10 receptions, 17 targets, 104 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the wide receiver room is averaging 12.86 receptions, 22.86 targets, 142.86 receiving yards, and 0.57 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what Adam Gase, the New York Jets head coach, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as either an offensive coordinator or head coach. Adam Gase has had his wide receiver room average 13.63 receptions, 21.61 targets, 175.29 receiving yards, and 1.19 receiving touchdowns per game in the 112 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 80 games that Dowell Loggains has been an offensive coordinator, his wide receiver room has averaged 11.59 receptions, 19.43 targets, 150.1 receiving yards, and 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game.

Overall, based on coaching, expect some slight improvement from the Jets wide receivers going forward, particularly with regards to receiving yards and touchdowns.

Fantasy players this impacts: Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder, Braxton Berrios, and Breshad Perriman

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