Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 5

October 14, 2020

Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.

This series continues into its fifth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 5, we saw performances such as Kyler Murray throwing for 380 passing yards, the Chiefs running backs combining for only 44 rushing yards, and the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers combining for 93 receiving yards. After these performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Seattle Seahawks Running Backs

Brian Schottenheimer 

The Seattle Seahawks had a dramatic come from behind victory against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football, winning 27-26. The Vikings dominated the time of possession in this game, so the Seattle Seahawks didn't get to utilize their running backs as much as they would like. The Seahawks running backs combined for 11 carries, 66 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, six receptions (seven targets), 27 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns in this victory.

After this performance, on the season the Seahawks running back room is averaging 18.8 carries, 82.4 rushing yards, 0.8 rushing touchdowns, 5.8 receptions (6.4 targets), 37.6 receiving yards, and 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, has traditionally gotten out of their backfield. Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has had his running backs average 25.34 carries, 106.54 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, 5.80 targets, 32.36 receiving yards, and 0.10 receiving touchdowns per game in the 176 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

Even with Russell Wilson's MVP campaign happening Brian Schottenheimer will get his running backs more involved in the future. We should expect much better days for the Seahawks running backs going forward.

Fantasy players this impacts: Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, and DeeJay Dallas

Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs

Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy

The Kansas City Chiefs lost their first game of the season to the Las Vegas Raiders this past Sunday. One big issue that they experienced in the game was getting the team's running backs involved. The Chiefs running backs combined for 11 carries, 44 rushing yards, four receptions (13 targets), 55 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns in this game.

After this performance, the Chiefs running back room is averaging 19.6 carries, 82.2 rushing yards, 0.2 rushing touchdowns, 4.6 receptions (8.2 targets), 40.8 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their head coach, Andy Reid, has traditionally gotten out of their backfield. Andy Reid has had his running backs average 19.98 carries, 87.62 rushing yards, 0.65 rushing touchdowns, 6.73 targets, 42.94 receiving yards, and 0.29 receiving touchdowns per game in the 336 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In the 32 games that Eric Bieniemy has been the Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator, the Chiefs running backs have averaged 18.88 carries, 82.88 rushing yards, 0.81 rushing touchdowns, 6.09 targets, 43.38 receiving yards, and 0.47 receiving touchdowns per game.

Everything seems in line with what we'd expect from Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy's running back room except for touchdowns. Expect more touchdowns in the future for the Chiefs backs.

Fantasy players this impacts: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, and Darwin Thompson

Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs

Doug Pederson

The Philadelphia Eagles fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and dropped to a 1-3-1 record. In the game, the Eagles running backs did the best they could to get something going against the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers run defense, combining for 12 carries, 83 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, two receptions (four targets), 19 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Eagles running back room is averaging 18.8 carries, 79.6 rushing yards, 0.6 rushing touchdowns, 3.8 receptions (6.4 targets), 28.8 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's look at what Doug Pederson has gotten out of the position traditionally. Over the 112 games he coached prior to the start of the 2020 NFL season, Pederson's running back room averaged 22.63 carries, 99.18 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 6.62 targets, 41.18 receiving yards, and 0.30 receiving touchdowns per game.

If you can still buy shares of Miles Sanders and the Eagles running game, now would be the time to do so.

Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Corey Clement

Washington Football Team Wide Receivers

Scott Turner

The Washington Football Team got demolished by the Los Angeles Rams. Their wide receivers, in particular, couldn't get anything going and only had five receptions on nine targets for 27 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.

This means that on the season the Football Team's wide receiver room is averaging 11.8 receptions on 18.6 targets for 137.2 receiving yards and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Scott Turner, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receivers in the past. Scott Turner has had his wide receivers average 22 targets, 135.25 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game in the four games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season. While this is a small sample size that is hard to have a lot of takeaways, the one thing it does show is how much of an outlier Sunday's performance was. There will be better days than Sunday for this group.

Fantasy players this impacts: Terry McLaurin, Steven Sims, and Dontrelle Inman

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers

Greg Roman

The Baltimore Ravens wide receivers combined for eight receptions (17 targets), 94 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown in their dominant victory over the Cincinnati Bengals.

After this performance, on the season the Ravens wide receivers room is averaging 9.8 receptions on 15 targets for 121.2 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receivers in the past. Greg Roman has had his wide receivers average 15.90 targets, 126.49 receiving yards, and 0.82 receiving touchdowns per game in the 98 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

Based on this information, we should expect improved efficiency from the wide receivers' performance Sunday, but the season averages as a whole are around what we would expect from Greg Roman's wide receiver room.

Fantasy players this impacts: Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown, Miles Boykin, Willie Snead 

Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

The Cincinnati Bengals got annihilated by the Baltimore Ravens, losing 27-3. The Bengals wide receivers combined for 10 receptions (17 targets), 122 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns in this loss.

After this performance, on the season the Bengals wide receivers room is averaging 15.8 receptions on 25.8 targets for 169 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving touchdowns.

Now let's compare this to what their head coach, Zac Taylor, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receivers in the past. Zac Taylor has had his wide receivers average 23.86 targets, 173.57 receiving yards, and 0.57 receiving touchdowns per game in the 21 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In the games prior to this season that Brian Callahan has been the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator, the Bengals wide receivers have averaged 24.25 targets, 172.25 receiving yards, and 0.56 receiving touchdowns per game.

Based on Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan's previous utilization of the wide receiver position, we should expect a bounce-back from Sunday's performance against the Baltimore Ravens, but the season stats as a whole for the Bengals wide receivers are right around what we would expect out of this group. Keep this all in mind when looking to buy or sell any of the Bengals wide receivers.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tee Higgins, A.J. Green, John Ross, and Tyler Boyd

San Francisco 49ers Wide Receivers

Kyle Shanahan

The San Francisco 49ers got annihilated by the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, losing 43-17. In this game the 49ers wide receivers combined for seven receptions (18 targets), 93 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown.

After this performance, on the season the 49ers wide receivers room is averaging 7.6 receptions (14 targets), 96 receiving yards, 0.2 receiving touchdowns.

Now let's compare this to what their head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receivers in the past. Kyle Shanahan has had his wide receivers average 19.94 targets, 162.49 receiving yards, and 0.90 receiving touchdowns per game in the 192 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Based on this information, we should expect better performances from Sunday and the start of the season as a whole. In particular, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are strong buys right now and you should be doing your best to acquire them while their value is low.

Fantasy players this impacts: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kendrick Bourne

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