Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 15

December 23, 2020

Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 15 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.

This series continues into its fifteenth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 15, we saw performances such as the Atlanta Falcons running backs combining for 21 rushing yards, Kyler Murray throwing for 406 passing yards, and the Broncos wide receivers combining for 37 receiving yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Miami Dolphins Wide Receivers

Chan Gailey

The Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots this past Sunday 22-12, eliminating the Patriots from playoff contention. In this game, the Dolphins wide receiver room combined for 11 receptions on 13 targets for 73 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, the Dolphins wide receiver room is averaging 11.93 receptions on 18.71 targets for 133.86 receiving yards and 0.71 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 14 games of the season.

*Targets for 192 games, as the stat was not tracked in Gailey's 1989 and 1990 seasons as the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator

Now let's compare this to what the Dolphins offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gailey has had his wide receiver room average 11.34 receptions on 20.78 targets for 154.93 receiving yards and 0.89 receiving touchdowns per game in the 224 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The 2020 Miami Dolphins wide receivers have appeared on this list a number of times since Tua Tagovailoa was named the starting quarterback. This group should have better performances than this past Sunday, but with only two games left in the regular season, it's likely that this group will just be a below-average wide receiver room for Chan Gailey.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeVante Parker, Lynn Bowden Jr., Jakeem Grant, and Isaiah Ford

Seattle Seahawks Wide Receivers

Brian Schottenheimer

The Seattle Seahawks beat the Washington Football Team this past Sunday, 20-15. In this game, the Seahawks wide receiver room combined for 12 receptions on 18 targets for 90 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver room is averaging 14.71 receptions on 20.79 targets for 190.86 receiving yards and 1.86 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 14 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Seahawks offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator. Schottenheimer has had his wide receiver room average 10.78 receptions on 18.31 targets for 140.48 receiving yards and 0.94 receiving touchdowns per game in the 176 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Seattle Seahawks wide receivers have been on fire for most of the season and they are on pace to be the best wide receiver room of Brian Schottenheimer's career. Looking ahead to the final two games, expect better performances than this past Sunday, but don't expect much of an improvement from the season totals.

Fantasy players this impacts: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and David Moore

Los Angeles Rams Running Backs

Sean McVay & Kevin O'Connell

In the biggest upset of the season, the New York Jets defeated the Los Angeles Rams 23-20. In this game, the Rams running back room just could not get it going, combining for 17 carries, 65 rushing yards, three receptions, five targets, 10 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, the Rams running back room is averaging 24.36 carries, 108.93 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 3.14 receptions, 4.50 targets, 27.57 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 14 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Rams head coach, Sean McVay, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. McVay has had his running back room average 22.06 carries, 95.98 rushing yards, 0.81 rushing touchdowns, 4.14 receptions, 5.57 targets, 38.84 receiving yards, and 0.23 receiving touchdowns per game in the 96 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Kevin O'Connell had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, O'Connell has had his running back room average 19.69 carries, 85.69 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns, 4.69 receptions, 6.44 targets, 41.44 receiving yards, and 0.06 receiving touchdowns per game.

There's no way around it, the Rams running backs were disappointing this past Sunday in what should have been one of the juiciest matchups of the season. We should expect improvement from Sunday's performance, but on the season they are performing right around what we'd expect from a Sean McVay running back room.

Fantasy players this impacts: Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, and Darrell Henderson

Cleveland Browns Running Backs

Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt

The Cleveland Browns beat the New York Giants 20-6 on Sunday Night Football. In this game, the Browns running back room combined for 26 carries, 95 rushing yards, five receptions, five targets, 23 receiving yards, and one rushing touchdown.

After this performance, the Cleveland Browns running back room is averaging 27.93 carries, 138.43 rushing yards, 1.07 rushing touchdowns, 3.50 receptions, 4.43 targets, 27.64 receiving yards, and 0.36 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 14 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Browns head coach, Kevin Stefanski, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Stefanski has had his running back room average 26 carries, 123.21 rushing yards, 1.05 rushing touchdowns, 4.79 receptions, 5.89 targets, 41.84 receiving yards, and 0.05 receiving touchdowns per game in the 19 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Van Pelt has had his running back room average 22.63 carries, 95.88 rushing yards, 0.25 rushing touchdowns, 4.63 receptions, 6.19 targets, 34.38 receiving yards, and 0.13 receiving touchdowns per game.

Sunday Night's performance would be pretty good for most running back rooms. But for a Kevin Stefanski running back room, it was actually slightly below his previous career averages. Going forward, the Browns running backs should be better than they were this past Sunday and bounce-back to a stat line closer to Kevin Stefanski's previous numbers. As for the season totals, the 2020 Browns running backs are performing around what we'd expect from a Kevin Stefanski running back room with around 32 opportunities (carries & targets) and 165 yards from scrimmage per game. Do not sell any Browns running backs in keeper/dynasty formats as long as Kevin Stefanski is the head coach.

Fantasy players this impacts: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D'Ernest Johnson

Denver Broncos Wide Receivers

Pat Shurmur

The Denver Broncos got destroyed this past Saturday by the Buffalo Bills 48-19. In this game, the Broncos wide receiver room combined for five receptions on 13 targets for 37 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, the Broncos wide receiver room is averaging 9.93 receptions on 18.50 targets for 141.57 receiving yards and 0.93 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 14 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Shurmur has had his wide receiver room average 12.04 receptions on 20.36 targets for 150.47 receiving yards and 0.88 receiving touchdowns per game in the 169 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Denver Broncos wide receivers had a horrible game where they all combined for as many targets as Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs with fewer receptions and receiving yards. There should be a bounce-back from Sunday's performance. In addition, looking at the season totals and comparing them to Pat Shurmur's previous utilization and success at the position, there's potential room for improvement the last couple games of the year.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Tim Patrick

Back Again?

These are the areas and positions that could improve in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past, and were also on this list last week.

Atlanta Falcons Running Backs

Dirk Koetter

The Atlanta Falcons blew another huge lead against Tom Brady, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-27 . In this game, the Atlanta Falcons running back room combined for 12 carries, 21 rushing yards, six receptions, seven targets, 33 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, the Atlanta Falcons running back room is averaging 22.86 carries, 85.64 rushing yards, 0.79 rushing touchdowns, 3.93 receptions, 5.36 targets, 22 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game through the first 14 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Falcons offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Koetter has had his running back room average 22.36 carries, 92.65 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 4.88 receptions, 6.38 targets, 38.12 receiving yards, and 0.17 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

For the second week in a row, the Atlanta Falcons running backs fall on this list. Given that Todd Gurley's health is a major question mark, it may be harder for this group to bounce-back to perform around Dirk Koetter's previous career averages. But at the very least they should get more usage and have better production than this past Sunday. There's some room for growth from this backfield in the last two weeks of the regular season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, and Ito Smith

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