Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 14

December 17, 2020

Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 14 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.

This series continues into its fourteenth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 14, we saw performances such as the Los Angeles Rams wide receivers combining for 71 receiving yards, Patrick Mahomes throwing for 393 passing yards, or the Detroit Lions running backs combining for 34 rushing yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Los Angeles Rams Wide Receivers

Sean McVay & Kevin O'Connell

The Los Angeles Rams won against the New England Patriots in a 24-3 blowout. In this game, the Los Angeles Rams wide receiver room combined for 11 receptions on 15 targets for 71 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.

After this performance, the Los Angeles Rams wide receiver room is averaging 16.15 receptions on 23.08 targets for 180.77 receiving yards and 0.85 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Rams head coach, Sean McVay, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. McVay has had his wide receiver room average 13.43 receptions on 21.28 targets for 181.07 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown per game in the 96 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Kevin O'Connell had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, O'Connell has had his wide receiver room average 11.19 receptions, 17.94 targets, 129.69 receiving yards, and 0.88 receiving touchdowns per game.

There's no way around it, the Los Angeles Rams wide receivers were disappointing last week against the New England Patriots, largely because the Rams didn't need to pass the ball. Looking ahead, we should expect this position group to return to Sean McVay's previous success in future weeks and combine to average a stat line in the neighborhood of 13-16 receptions, 21-23 targets, 180 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown.

Fantasy players this impacts: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds, and Van Jefferson

New England Patriots Running Backs

Josh McDaniels

The New England Patriots lost to the Los Angeles Rams 24-3, putting the Patriots playoff hopes in jeopardy. In this game, the Patriots running back room combined for 21 carries, 88 rushing yards, two receptions, five targets, two receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the New England Patriots running back room is averaging 22.46 carries, 105.31 rushing yards, 0.62 rushing touchdowns, 5.54 receptions, 7.31 targets, 43.31 receiving yards, and 0.23 receiving touchdowns per game. 

Now let's compare this to what the Patriots offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. McDaniels has had his running back room average 24.54 carries, 104.03 rushing yards, 0.87 rushing touchdowns, 5.14 receptions, 7.1 targets, 44.98 receiving yards, and 0.27 receiving touchdowns per game in the 220 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The New England Patriots running backs had a forgettable performance against the Rams on Thursday Night Football last week and should play better in future weeks against the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets. Looking at the season totals and comparing them with Josh McDaniels' averages prior to this season, it doesn't appear that there's much room for growth from the 2020 Patriots running back season averages, especially with Cam Newton taking a significant share of rushing opportunities.

Fantasy players this impacts: Sony Michel, Damien Harris, J.J. Taylor, and James White

Miami Dolphins Running Backs

Chan Gailey

The Dolphins lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in a closely contested matchup, 33-27. In this game, the Dolphins running back room combined for 17 carries, 54 rushing yards, three receptions, five targets, 21 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, the Miami Dolphins running back room is averaging 21.15 carries, 75.54 rushing yards, 0.54 rushing touchdowns, 4.62 receptions, 5.69 targets, and 35.54 receiving yards per game through the first 13 games of the season.

*Data only available for 192 of Gailey's 224 games, as targets weren't tracked in 1989 & 1990

Now let's compare this to what the Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gailey has had his running back room average 24.57 carries, 102.93 rushing yards, 0.66 rushing touchdowns, 4.04 receptions, 5.53* targets, 30.04 receiving yards, and 0.15 receiving touchdowns per game in the 224 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Dolphins running backs will do better than 75 scrimmage yards, especially once they get starting running back Myles Gaskin back. Comparing the 2020 Dolphins running back season totals with Chan Gailey's averages in the 224 games he coached prior to this season, on paper it would seem that there's room for growth for this year's group. And while that's entirely possible, keep in mind that Gailey inherited one of the worst rushing attacks in recent memory so it's entirely possible that this group performs below his career averages.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeAndre Washington, Matt Breida, Salvon Ahmed, Patrick Laird, and Myles Gaskin

New York Giants Tight Ends

Jason Garrett

The New York Giants got destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals, 26-7. In this game, the New York Giants tight end room combined for three receptions on five targets for 24 receiving yards.

After this performance, the New York Giants tight end room is averaging 5.31 receptions on 8.54 targets for 49.54 receiving yards and 0.08 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the New York Giants offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, has historically gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Garrett has had his tight end room average 6.15 receptions on 8.65 targets for 63.84 receiving yards and 0.40 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The New York Giants tight ends struggled against the Arizona Cardinals this past week, and quite frankly they just have been struggling all year compared to what we are used to from a Jason Garrett tight end room. There is definitely room for growth if Evan Engram can improve his efficiency and catch a couple more touchdowns, but with only three games left it just might not happen this year.

Fantasy player this impacts: Evan Engram

Minnesota Vikings Wide Receivers

Gary Kubiak

The Minnesota Vikings lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 26-14. In this game, the Minnesota Vikings wide receiver room combined for seven receptions on 16 targets for 78 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, the Minnesota Vikings wide receiver room is averaging 11.85 receptions on 17.38 targets for 165.38 receiving yards and 1.54 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Kubiak has had his wide receiver room average 11.13 receptions on 18.46 targets for 150.21 receiving yards and 0.86 receiving touchdowns per game in the 349 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Vikings wide receivers had a subpar game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but on the season they are still outpacing the numbers we are used from a Gary Kubiak wide receiver room on less volume. Going forward there will be an improvement from Sunday's numbers, but don't be surprised if the season totals dip a bit in the last few weeks for this group.

Fantasy players this impacts: Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Chad Beebe 

New York Jets Wide Receivers

Adam Gase & Dowell Loggains

The New York Jets got absolutely crushed by the Seattle Seahawks, losing 40-3. In this game, the Jets wide receiver room combined for 10 receptions on 19 targets for 112 receiving yards.

After this performance, the Jets wide receiver room is averaging 11.92 receptions on 21.08 targets for 146.46 receiving yards and 0.77 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the New York Jets head coach, Adam Gase, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gase has had his wide receiver room average 13.63 receptions on 21.61 targets for 175.29 receiving yards and 1.19 receiving touchdowns per game in the 112 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 80 games that Dowell Loggains had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Loggains has had his wide receiver room average 11.59 receptions on 19.43 targets for 150.1 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving touchdown per game.

The Jets wide receivers were disappointing against the Seattle Seahawks in what was supposed to be a positive matchup for the group. They are getting the volume (targets) that we would expect from an Adam Gase and Dowell Loggains wide receiver room, but they aren't putting up the numbers - hinting that quarterback play and play-calling has been subpar. Doubt we will see much improvement from the Jets wide receivers in these last few weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: Braxton Berrios, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman, and Jamison Crowder

Detroit Lions Running Backs

Darrell Bevell

The Detroit Lions lost to their rival, the Green Bay Packers, 31-24 in a closely contested matchup. In this game, the Lions running back room combined for 13 carries, 34 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, six receptions, seven targets, and 59 receiving yards.

After this performance, the Lions running back room is averaging 20.69 carries, 80.69 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 5.23 receptions, 6.85 targets, 45.62 receiving yards, and 0.23 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Detroit Lions interim head coach, Darrell Bevell, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Bevell has had his running back room average 24.06 carries, 104.92 rushing yards, 0.73 rushing touchdowns, 4.20 receptions, 5.63 targets, 35.75 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Lions running backs did a great job of scoring touchdowns against the Packers, but the yardage and usage was lower than what we've come to expect from a Darrell Bevell running back room. For the last few weeks of the season it seems reasonable to expect the yardage and usage to tick up a little bit while the current touchdown pace dips.

Fantasy players this impacts: D'Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson

Atlanta Falcons Running Backs

Dirk Koetter

The Atlanta Falcons lost another heartbreaker, falling to the Los Angeles Chargers 20-17. In this game, the Falcons running back room combined for 18 carries, 64 rushing yards, four receptions, five targets, 27 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, the Atlanta Falcons running back room is averaging 23.69 carries, 90.62 rushing yards, 0.85 rushing touchdowns, 3.77 receptions, 5.23 targets, 21.15 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Falcons offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Koetter has had his running back room average 22.36 carries, 92.65 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 4.88 receptions, 6.38 targets, 38.12 receiving yards, and 0.17 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Was Sunday a horrible day for the Atlanta running backs? No, but it was underwhelming. Looking at the 2020 Atlanta Falcons season totals, they are largely getting utilized around the level we've come to expect from a Dirk Koetter running back room. The passing game is one area that could potentially see increased usage down the stretch, but there likely aren't any league-winners coming from this backfield.

Fantasy players this impacts: Brian Hill, Todd Gurley, and Ito Smith

Washington Football Team Wide Receivers

Scott Turner

The Washington Football Team beat the San Francisco 49ers this past week, 23-15. In this game, Washington's wide receiver room combined for five receptions on 14 targets for 46 receiving yards.

After this performance, Washington's wide receiver room is averaging 12.08 receptions on 17.85 targets for 145.38 receiving yards and 0.54 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what Washington's offensive coordinator, Scott Turner, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator. Turner has had his wide receiver room average 12 receptions on 22 targets for 135.25 receiving yards and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game in the four games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

It's hard to have a much worse day than 46 receiving yards as a wide receiver room. Going forward there should be better performances from this group and a return to the 135-145 receiving yards per game range for the Washington Football Team wide receivers.

Fantasy players this impacts: Terry McLaurin, Cam Sims, and Steven Sims Jr.

Back Again?

These are the areas and positions that could improve in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past, and were also on this list last week.

Pittsburgh Steelers Running Backs

Randy Fichtner

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost their second straight game of the season, falling to the Buffalo Bills 26-15 on Sunday Night Football. Once again, the Steelers running backs struggled to get going with the running back room combining for 17 carries, 47 rushing yards, three receptions, four targets, and 18 receiving yards.

After this performance, the Steelers running back room is averaging 21.08 carries, 80.92 rushing yards, 0.62 rushing touchdowns, 3.46 receptions, 4.69 targets, 20.15 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Steelers offensive coordinator, Randy Fichtner, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in as an offensive coordinator. Fichtner has had his running back room average 20.13 carries, 81.09 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 5.47 receptions, 6.59 targets, 42.19 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game in the 32 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

It's become a reoccurring theme to see the Pittsburgh Steelers running backs on this list. At the start of the season, this group was dominating to the point that we mentioned them as a group that could decline. And boy did they decline, reaching a point where they are performing below Randy Fichtner's previous running back room's production. Going forward, there is room for this group to get better in the passing game. But given there are only three games left and this is the third straight week that Randy Fichtner's running backs have landed on this list, it's more likely that this is just a bad season for these running backs.

Fantasy players this impacts: James Conner, Benny Snell Jr., Anthony McFarland Jr., and Jaylen Samuels

New York Giants Wide Receivers

Jason Garrett

The New York Giants lost to the Arizona Cardinals this past week 26-7. In this game, the New York Giants wide receiver room combined for seven receptions on 15 targets for 105 receiving yards.

After this performance, the Giants wide receiver room is averaging 10.77 receptions on 16.62 targets for 126.92 receiving yards and 0.46 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 13 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the New York Giants offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Garrett has had his wide receiver room average 11.43 receptions on 18.88 targets for 160.30 receiving yards and 1.26 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

For the third straight week, the New York Giants wide receivers land on this list. This wide receiver room has struggled to get much production and is on pace to be one of the worst of Jason Garrett's career. As we touched on last week, it's possible that there is some improvement on the season totals for this group in the last few games, but it's much more likely that it's just a lost season for the New York Giants wide receivers.

Fantasy players this impacts: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Golden Tate

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