Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 13

December 9, 2020

Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 13 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.

This series continues into its thirteenth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 13, we saw performances such as the Philadelphia Eagles running backs combining for 59 rushing yards, Matthew Stafford throwing for 402 passing yards, and the Atlanta Falcons tight end room combining for just nine receiving yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Atlanta Falcons Tight Ends

Dirk Koetter

The Atlanta Falcons lost to the New Orleans Saints in a closely contested matchup, 21-16. In this game, the Atlanta Falcons tight ends combined for one reception on five targets for nine receiving yards.

After this performance, the Atlanta Falcons tight end room is averaging 3.92 receptions on 6.5 targets for 42.17 receiving yards and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 12 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Falcons offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, has historically gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Koetter has had his tight end room average 4.57 receptions on 6.96 targets for 51.10 receiving yards and 0.46 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Comparing the 2020 Atlanta Falcons season totals with Dirk Koetter's per-game averages in the 208 games he coached prior to this season, we notice that this year's totals are below what we are used to expecting from a Dirk Koetter tight end room. This suggests that not only should there be improved production and usage from this past Sunday's game, but there is also room for growth on the season totals these last few weeks of the season.

Fantasy player this impacts: Hayden Hurst

Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

The Cincinnati Bengals lost 19-7 to the Miami Dolphins in a heated contest where the benches cleared at one point. In this game, the Bengals running backs struggled, combining for 15 carries, 37 rushing yards, two receptions, two targets, -1 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Cincinnati Bengals running back room is averaging 19.08 carries, 67.5 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing touchdowns, 5.25 receptions, 6.58 targets, 35.58 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Bengals head coach, Zac Taylor, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Taylor has had his running back room average 21.05 carries, 81.14 rushing yards, 0.43 rushing touchdowns, 4.10 receptions, 5.48 targets, 32.86 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game in the 21 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Brian Callahan had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Callahan has had his running back room average 20.69 carries, 81.69 rushing yards, 0.31 rushing touchdowns, 4.06 receptions, 5.5 targets, 32.56 receiving yards, and 0.19 receiving touchdowns per game.

The Bengals running game has been struggling since Joe Mixon got injured, and fell off even more once starting quarterback Joe Burrow went down. Going into the season, Taylor and Callahan were among the worst coaches at getting production out of their running backs, so it's hard to say how much improvement this group will see down the stretch. But at the very least it's hard to be much worse than the performance this past Sunday, and the group should be better than this past week in the future.

Fantasy players this impacts: Giovani Bernard, Samaje Perine, and Joe Mixon

Minnesota Vikings Tight Ends

Gary Kubiak

The Minnesota Vikings once again won a close matchup, edging out the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24 in overtime. In this game, the Minnesota Vikings tight end room combined for one reception on three targets for 10 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Vikings tight end room is averaging four receptions on 5.5 targets for 45.67 receiving yards and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Vikings offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, has historically gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Kubiak has had his tight end room average 5.21 receptions on 8.08 targets for 60.22 receiving yards and 0.42 receiving touchdowns per game in the 349 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Vikings have been performing worse than most Gary Kubiak tight end rooms, but it makes some sense with how well Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are playing. Going forward, there should be better performances than last Sunday for this group and there is some potential room for growth on the season totals.

Fantasy players this impacts: Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr.

Pittsburgh Steelers Running Backs

Randy Fichtner

The Steelers lost their first game of the season to the Washington Football Team 23-17. In this game, the Pittsburgh Steelers running backs combined for 13 carries, 21 rushing yards, five receptions, seven targets, and 16 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Pittsburgh Steelers running back room is averaging 21.42 carries, 83.75 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, 3.5 receptions, 4.75 targets, 20.33 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Steelers offensive coordinator, Randy Fichtner, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in as an offensive coordinator. Fichtner has had his running back room average 20.13 carries, 81.09 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 5.47 receptions, 6.59 targets, 42.19 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game in the 32 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

Sunday's performance was disappointing for any fantasy players rostering Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, or Jaylen Samuels. But looking at the season totals, outside of usage in the passing game the Steelers running backs are being utilized around the level we'd expect from a Randy Fichtner offense. Going forward there should be better performances than Sunday, but there's probably not going to be much growth from the 2020 season averages if Fichtner sticks to his old ways.

Fantasy players this impacts: James Conner, Benny Snell Jr., Anthony McFarland Jr., and Jaylen Samuels

Back Again?

These are the areas and positions that could improve in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past, and were also on this list last week.

Arizona Cardinals Wide Receivers

Kliff Kingsbury

The Arizona Cardinals lost to the Los Angeles Rams 38-28 this past Sunday. In this game, the Arizona Cardinals wide receivers combined for 15 receptions on 25 targets for 88 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.

After this performance, on the season the Arizona Cardinals wide receiver room is averaging 16.08 receptions on 23.58 targets for 178.83 receiving yards and 1.08 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Cardinals head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in a head coaching role (in the NFL). Kingsbury has had his wide receiver room average 14.88 receptions on 23.69 targets for 168.44 receiving yards and 0.81 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as a head coach prior to this season.

Once again, the Arizona Cardinals wide receivers disappointed this week relative to what we've come to expect from a Kliff Kingsbury wide receiver room. Looking at the 2020 Cardinals season totals, as we mentioned last week the usage is similar to Kingbury's offense last year but what's improved is the efficiency this year. Looking ahead to the final four games of the regular season, we should expect better performances than this past Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams but also maybe another slight dip in efficiency from the current 2020 Cardinals season totals.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeAndre Hopkins, Andy Isabella, Christian Kirk, and Larry Fitzgerald

New York Giants Wide Receivers

Jason Garrett

In one of the most surprising games of the day, the New York Giants upset the Seattle Seahawks 17-12 and put themselves in sole control of first place in the NFC East. In this game, the New York Giants wide receivers combined for seven receptions on 12 targets for 64 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the New York Giants wide receiver room is averaging 11.08 receptions on 16.75 targets for 128.75 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the New York Giants offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Garrett has had his wide receiver room average 11.43 receptions on 18.88 targets for 160.30 receiving yards and 1.26 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Much like last week, Sunday's performance was disappointing for this group based on what we've come to expect from a Jason Garrett wide receiver room. In addition, this is one of the least utilized and least productive wide receiver rooms of Jason Garrett's career. Is it possible that this means that there could be some improvement on the season totals for this group in the last few games? Maybe, but that's going to depend on how many more games starting quarterback Daniel Jones sits out. If Jones doesn't play in the next couple games, this may just be a lost year for the New York Giants wide receivers.

Fantasy players this impacts: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Golden Tate

Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs

Doug Pederson

The Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Green Bay Packers 30-16, in a game that starting quarterback Carson Wentz got benched for second-round pick Jalen Hurts. With the offense sputtering, the Philadelphia Eagles running backs didn't put up particularly impressive numbers, combining for 16 carries, 59 rushing yards, and three targets.

After this performance, on the season the Philadelphia Eagles running back room is averaging 17.17 carries, 84.33 rushing yards, 0.42 rushing touchdowns, 3.75 receptions, 6.25 targets, 26.92 receiving yards, and 0.08 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Pederson has had his running back room average 22.63 carries, 99.18 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 4.74 receptions (on 6.62 targets), 41.18 receiving yards, and 0.30 receiving touchdowns per game in the 112 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

It's inexplicable that the Eagles have only given their running backs 25 carries in total over the last two weeks. Looking at the season totals, the 2020 Eagles are utilizing their running backs less than any other season that Doug Pederson has been in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Going forward, there could be a bump up in running back usage down the stretch if Doug Pederson resorts to his previous trends, but time is running out and this might just end up being a down-year for Pederson's backs.

Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, Corey Clement, and Boston Scott

Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs

Jon Gruden & Greg Olson

Going into Sunday, it was assumed that the Raiders would steamroll the winless New York Jets. But it actually ended up being a very close game where the Raiders needed a last-minute hail-mary to Henry Ruggs III in order to pull out the 31-28 win. In this game, the Raiders running backs struggled more than we expected going in, combining for 23 carries, 67 rushing yards, three receptions, four targets, 10 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Raiders running back room is averaging 25.33 carries, 105.92 rushing yards, 1.08 rushing touchdowns, 4.42 receptions, 5.58 targets, 28.25 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Raiders head coach, Jon Gruden, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gruden has had his running back room average 22.74 carries, 95.04 rushing yards, 0.54 rushing touchdowns, 4.73 receptions (on 6.72 targets), 37.29 receiving yards, and 0.07 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 172 games that Greg Olson had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Olson has had his running back room average 20.62 carries, 84.26 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns, 4.99 receptions (on 6.62 targets), 38.69 receiving yards, and 0.08 receiving touchdowns per game.

Sunday's performance was shockingly bad from this group given the friendly matchup they were given and on paper there should be better performances than that going forward. As for the season totals, as we talked about last week the 2020 season rushing totals are still on the higher end of what we've come to expect from a Jon Gruden/Greg Olson running back room. On the flip side, the Raiders running backs are being utilized less frequently through the air than the typical Jon Gruden/Greg Olson running back room. Expect improved performances from this past week (especially if Josh Jacobs makes his return) and a bounce-back to their season totals from the Raiders running backs down the stretch.

Fantasy players this impacts: Josh Jacobs, Devontae Booker, and Jalen Richard

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