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Eli Grabanski breaks down the 2022 Dallas Cowboys coaching staff's previous statistical tendencies in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that managed to retain the key members of their coaching staff was the Dallas Cowboys. Mike McCarthy will return as the head coach, Kellen Moore will be back as the team's offensive coordinator, and Dan Quinn will be the team's defensive coordinator.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Cowboys players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Cowboys coaches bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Cowboys coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Mike McCarthy has been the Dallas Cowboys head coach since 2020. Before joining the Cowboys, McCarthy spent five seasons as the New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator (2000-2004), one season as the San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator (2005), and 13 seasons as the Green Bay Packers head coach (2006-2018). Given McCarthy's offensive background, let's take a look at what his offenses have done in the past at the NFL level to get a better understanding of how the Cowboys' offense may operate in 2022.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 39.94 | 281.88 | 1.56 | 3.44 | 16.06 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 16* | 37.94 | 295.31 | 2.44 | 3.38 | 8.81 | 0.06 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 332 | 34.92 | 256.40 | 1.81 | 3.76 | 15.68 | 0.14 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 22 | 89.88 | 0.63 | 5 | 6.94 | 33.13 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 16* | 24.06 | 111.13 | 0.81 | 5.5 | 6.94 | 40.5 | 0.19 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 332 | 21.42 | 90.57 | 0.58 | 4.10 | 5.52 | 31.86 | 0.11 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 16 | 24.88 | 202.19 | 1.06 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 16* | 14.88 | 22.5 | 197.31 | 1.5 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 332 | 13.23 | 21.95 | 180.64 | 1.31 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 4.69 | 6.56 | 46.06 | 0.25 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 16* | 5.69 | 7.81 | 57.44 | 0.69 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 332 | 3.77 | 5.87 | 39.98 | 0.34 |
*Missed New Orleans Saints game while in COVID-19 protocols
Mike McCarthy Takeaways & Expectations
Throughout Mike McCarthy's 332-game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his offenses have averaged 34.92 passing attempts per game. In his past two years as a head coach for the Dallas Cowboys, the usage has been much higher than that, with the Cowboys attempting 39.94 passes per game in 2020 and 37.94 passes per game in 2021. The recent passing usage is extremely encouraging to see and a good sign for Dak Prescott's passing ceiling in 2022.
Besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of McCarthy's quarterbacks throughout his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Throughout his career, McCarthy's quarterbacks have averaged 3.76 carries per game.
Mike McCarthy's offense historically has been fairly average in providing passing opportunities for his team and rushing attempts for his quarterbacks. Given the recent trend of a high number of McCarthy's teams attempting a high number of passing attempts, Dak Prescott is looking like a reliable option in fantasy leagues and should be valued as a QB1 for the 2022 season.
Looking at the running back position, Mike McCarthy has been a little more suspect in utilizing the group. Throughout his career, McCarthy's tailbacks have averaged 21.42 carries, 90.57 rushing yards, and 0.58 rushing touchdowns.
These career numbers for a running back room are slightly below the league average and a little discouraging to see if you are rostering Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard in your fantasy league. It's important to remember that he has been a little better at utilizing his backs the last two seasons so you shouldn't necessarily go fading them in your fantasy draft(s) altogether.
Besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that McCarthy has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed throughout his career – is McCarthy typically rolling with a bell-cow approach at the position or a running back by committee approach?
Examining the data, for most of Mike McCarthy's career, he has preferred to take a bell-cow approach but has toned it down a bit in recent years. While Tony Pollard is getting some hype this offseason, as long as Ezekiel Elliott is healthy and Mike McCarthy is the head coach, Zeke will continue to see the majority of the Cowboys carries on the ground.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Mike McCarthy's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Throughout his career, McCarthy's running back room has averaged 5.52 targets per game – which is below average.
Perhaps most concerning is the fact that McCarthy only had one season in his twenty-year career as an offensive coordinator or head coach where his tailbacks saw more than eight targets per game. This usage is a little frustrating to see if you are rostering one of the Dallas Cowboys running backs in your fantasy leagues, as it is clear that McCarthy has generally had a more negative influence on his running backs usage.
Looking at the wide receiver position, McCarthy's offense has provided his wide receivers with 21.95 targets per game throughout his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
This career average is above-average compared to other play-callers, and he's utilized the position even more in recent years with the Cowboys' wide receiver room averaging 24.88 targets per game in 2020 and 22.5 targets per game in 2021. This is great news if you are rostering one of the Cowboys' receivers with Michael Gallup, James Washington, and Jalen Tolbert looking like particularly great gambles at their current average draft positions (ADPs).
Lastly, McCarthy's historical usage of tight ends is subpar. Throughout his 332-game career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Mike McCarthy's tight end room has averaged 5.87 targets per game.
This career usage is discouraging, but it's important to realize that McCarthy's tight end usage has been better in recent years. Based on the recent usage, Dalton Schultz should be a solid TE1 for the 2022 season.
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore
Kellen Moore has been the Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator since 2019. Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some statistics from the offenses that Kellen Moore has coordinated.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 39.94 | 281.88 | 1.56 | 3.44 | 16.06 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 17 | 38.06 | 291.94 | 2.35 | 3.35 | 8.12 | 0.06 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 38.43 | 293.37 | 1.94 | 3.35 | 13.71 | 0.14 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 22 | 89.88 | 0.63 | 5 | 6.94 | 33.13 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 17 | 23.82 | 111.41 | 0.82 | 5.41 | 6.94 | 38.41 | 0.18 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 23.35 | 104.98 | 0.78 | 4.92 | 6.53 | 34.90 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 16 | 24.88 | 202.19 | 1.06 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 17 | 15 | 22.82 | 196.88 | 1.47 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 15 | 23.33 | 205.24 | 1.27 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 4.69 | 6.56 | 46.06 | 0.25 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 17 | 5.65 | 7.65 | 56.59 | 0.65 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 5.43 | 7.37 | 53.04 | 0.45 |
Kellen Moore Takeaways & Expectations
While Mike McCarthy has been a play-caller in the past, it has actually been offensive coordinator Kellen Moore who has called the plays on gamedays the past couple of seasons. In Kellen Moore's 49-game career as an offensive coordinator, his team's offenses have averaged 38.43 passing attempts per game – which is well above league average.
This is a great sign for Dak Prescott's passing usage and means that he should see a decent passing workload in 2022. In addition, besides passing, Moore's quarterbacks have averaged 3.35 carries per game throughout his career as an offensive coordinator.
Overall, Dak Prescott should be a decent fantasy value whether it's Kellen Moore or Mike McCarthy calling the plays based on his pure talent. For the team to maximize the number of opportunities for Dak and put him in the best position to succeed, Moore is the best fit to call the plays.
Jumping to the running back position, Kellen Moore has generally been pretty good in providing the position work. Moore's running backs have averaged 23.35 carries, 104.98 rushing yards, and 0.78 rushing touchdowns per game throughout his 49-game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage shows that with Kellen Moore handling offensive play-calling duties, the team will feed their running backs more than it would with Mike McCarthy. Besides the number of carries going to the entire running back room, we also need to consider how much of the work on the ground Moore is giving to one tailback versus multiple backs.
Looking at the data Kellen Moore has preferred the bell-cow approach thus far in his career, but he seems to be dialing back Ezekiel Elliott's workload slightly each year. Elliott should still lead the team in carries, but don't be surprised if the trend continues and Tony Pollard sees his workload on the ground increase a bit from 2021.
Finally, Moore gives his running backs an average amount of work in the passing game with his tailbacks seeing 6.53 targets per game.
Regardless of who calls the plays on the Cowboys, the team will likely be average or even slightly below average in featuring the tailbacks in the passing game. Overall, Kellen Moore is a significantly better play-caller for the Cowboys' running backs than Mike McCarthy, and if you roster one of the Cowboys' backs you should be rooting for Moore to maintain play-calling duties. Ezekiel Elliott will likely be more of an RB2 in 2022 with Moore calling the plays, and Tony Pollard will continue to be one of the more valuable secondary backs in the NFL.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, throughout his 49-game career as an offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore has seen his wide receiver room average 23.33 targets per game.
This usage is extremely encouraging to see and suggests that it is indeed possible for the Dallas Cowboys to support multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers in the 2022 season. Whether it's Kellen Moore or Mike McCarthy calling the plays the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver room will be one of the more intriguing ones to invest in for the 2022 season.
Lastly, Moore's historical usage of tight ends is solid. Throughout his 49-game career as an offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore's tight end room has averaged 7.37 targets per game.
Based on the career averages, it's good for the Dallas Cowboys tight ends that Kellen Moore is the primary play-caller and not Mike McCarthy. Dalton Schultz should be in the TE1 mix again as long as Moore calls the offensive plays for the team.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, JaQuan Hardy, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, James Washington, Noah Brown, Jalen Tolbert, Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson
2022 Defense
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Dan Quinn
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Falcons | 5 | 32.2 | 335.8 | 110.2 | 68 | 6.56 | 1 |
| 2021 Cowboys | 17 | 21.06 | 238.18 | 112.82 | 63.65 | 5.52 | 2 |
| Quinn's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 134 | 21.58 | 232.08 | 105.90 | 62.69 | 5.39 | 1.51 |
Dan Quinn joined the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff in 2021 after spending 85 games as the Atlanta Falcons head coach (2015-2020). Before his job as the Atlanta Falcons head coach, Quinn also spent two years as the Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator (2013-2014). Because of his defensive background let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Quinn's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role to get some insight into how the Dallas Cowboys defense should look in 2022.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: John Fassel - John Fassel has been the Dallas Cowboys' special teams coordinator since 2020. Before joining the Cowboys, Fassel had spent time as the special teams coordinator for the Oakland Raiders (2008-2011) and St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams (2012-2019). At the NFL level, he's also served as an assistant special teams coach for the Baltimore Ravens (2005-2007) and as the interim head coach of the Los Angeles Rams (2016).
QB Coach: Doug Nussmeier - Doug Nussmeier has been with the Dallas Cowboys since 2018, spending time as a tight ends coach (2018-2019) before becoming the team's quarterbacks coach in 2020. From 2001 to 2017, he was a quarterbacks coach for a variety of football teams but most notably spent two years as the St. Louis Rams quarterbacks coach (2006-2007). He also was one of the few quarterbacks in NFL history to be left-handed, playing for the New Orleans Saints (1994-1997) and Indianapolis Colts (1998).
RB Coach: Skip Peete - In 2020, Skip Peete entered his second stint as the Dallas Cowboys running backs coach after previously serving in the same role from 2007 to 2012. Besides his time with the Cowboys, Peete has also been a running backs coach at the NFL level for the Oakland Raiders (1998-2006), Chicago Bears (2013-2014), and Los Angeles Rams (2016-2019).
WR Coach: Robert Prince - The only major position coach that will be different for the Dallas Cowboys in 2022 will be the wide receivers coach, as the team goes from Adam Henry (now the co-offensive coordinator at Indiana) to Robert Prince. Prince has been coaching football since 1989 and has previously spent time as a wide receivers coach at the NFL level for the Seattle Seahawks (2009), Detroit Lions (2014-2020), and Houston Texans (2021).
TE Coach: Lunda Wells - Lunda Wells has been the Dallas Cowboys tight ends coach since 2020. Before joining the Cowboys, Wells spent his entire NFL coaching career with the New York Giants, working as an offensive assistant (2012), assistant offensive line coach (2013-2017), and tight ends coach (2018-2019).
OL Coach: Joe Philbin - Joe Philbin has been the Dallas Cowboys offensive line coach since 2020. He's been coaching at the college and NFL levels since 1984 and has previously served as an offensive line coach at the NFL level for the Green Bay Packers (2006) and Indianapolis Colts (2016-2017). He's also served as an offensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers (2007-2011, 2018) and as a head coach for the Miami Dolphins (2012-2015).
DL Coach: Aden Durde - Aden Durde joined the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff in 2021 and has served as the team's defensive line coach. He has previously worked as a defensive quality control coach (2018-2019) and an outside linebackers coach (2020) for the Atlanta Falcons.
LB Coach: Scott McCurley - Scott McCurley has been the Dallas Cowboys linebackers coach since 2020. He previously spent his entire coaching career for the Green Bay Packers working in a variety of roles from 2006 to 2018.
DB Coach: Al Harris - Al Harris has worked with the Cowboys' secondary since 2020. As a coach he previously worked for the Miami Dolphins as a coaching intern (2012) and for the Kansas City Chiefs as an assistant secondary coach/defensive assistant (2013-2018). He also played cornerback at the NFL level for the Philadelphia Eagles (1998-2002), Green Bay Packers (2003-2010), Miami Dolphins (2010), and St. Louis Rams (2011) making two Pro Bowls (2007 & 2008).
Secondary Coach: Joe Whitt Jr. - Joe Whitt Jr. joined the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff in 2021 after spending the 2020 season as the secondary coach of the Atlanta Falcons. At the NFL level, he has previously worked in a variety of roles, but some of his more notable ones are as the cornerbacks' coach of the Green Bay Packers (2009-2017) and as the secondary coach of the Cleveland Browns (2019).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders
AFC East: Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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